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Bleak Outlook For These Counties!!

Wrangler95 said:
I didn't just look for 1 season,I went all the way back for the past 12 years and if you look back you will see a decline happening for several years!If some of you fail to see the turkey sitiuation we are facing,just do some research!My home county of Clay,just look at each season back to 2010 and you will understand what is happening to the turkey,they are going away just like the quail have.
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Just curious as to what all factors you have plugged into your analysis? Have you factored in the actual number of turkey hunters (as opposed to the number of licenses sold)? One can't assume that because someone bought a sportsman's license that they also hunt turkey. I know lots of folks who dont hunt turkey, but have either a lifetime license or a sportsman's license.
'Same store analysis' over an extended period of time can show a lot more accurate information.
I would venture to guess that many of the lifetime license holders and/or those who historically purchase sportsman's license are baby boomers (like me) and we know THEIR numbers are declining.
 
No dought you've not be to some of these ETN counties. Unicoi is very rough country with very low deer and turkey number. With the late spring, there was still snow in Unicoi and Carter into late April. Not sure how you got some of your numbers, but based on TWRA Hunter tool box, these are numbers for Region 4 since 2006. Yellow is record year and green is 2nd highest.

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TWRA has taken one bird from out bag limit recently, that will account for some. I'm about to piss some off but, quit advocating for closing the season, shortening, making any kind of change to regulations. If you're convinced it all doom and gloom quit whining/ or start hunting. Your time would be well spent focusing on critter control, habitat improvement etc.
I'm not putting in the effort I once did which accounts for a couple birds a year. The problem may be the aging population in hunting community. Has that been checked?
 
Wrangler95 said:
Very bad sitiuation for these counties!Harvest report as follows!

Anderson-105
Campbell-156
Carter-118
Chester-94
Clay-149
Crockett-61
Dyer-119
Fentress-135
Franklin-138
Grundy-162
Hamblen-156
Hancock-136
Haywood-134
Johnson-140
Lake-43
Lauderdale-97
Lawrence-199
Lewis-168
Loudon-188
Meigs-187
Monroe-172
Morgan-163
Moore-127
Perry-163
Pickett-104
polk-33
Sequatchie-171
Shelby-99
tipton-122
Trosdale-112
unicoi-44
Union-178
Van Buren-160

All these counties are in serious trouble as you can see,all less than 200 harvest and some less than a 100!Many more counties with a little over 200 kills!
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I keep seeing these people freaking out over turkey numbers and it's getting to be disturbing. 2 years ago our farm was terrible and this year we could have killed 30. Mother Nature does not guarantee that your gonna be flush every year with Turkeys every year. Yes numbers are down in areas but…. why is that? I personally know in our area of several people who do not report their kills. I don't agree with it but you can add probably 100 birds to all this numbers in each county. Talk to your neighbors and your community. Trap trap trap as many predators as you can. There are guys in my area that come trap my place for free. Provide more nesting habitat and shoot one less bird each year. Do all you can do then.. …in three years, if the numbers are down, let's discuss. The more I trap, the better the turkeys get.
 
Wrangler95 said:
deerfever,just curious,what county do you hunt.Send me a pm if you dont care to tell me!!
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I wouldn't tell a man where I turkey hunt for all the money in the world, PM or otherwise. Lol, I have learned a few things over the years. I also hunt public 95 percent of the time so it will go to my grave! You are getting on people for not believing exactly as you but can't see the other side of the coin? Why do you doubt some areas have not dropped off or have expanded? I believe you about Clay county, I have made that clear with no problem at all. You didn't provide 10/12 years of information on all the counties you listed just simply they only killed 200 or below so it is a bleak outlook. The only county you listed that kind of information for was Clay and I agreed with you. You will have to accept the fact that I don't agree with your analysis that all counties that kill 200 or less have a bleak outlook. I gave you my reasoning and I think it's sound. Weather on weekends , # of hunters in each county , size of county all are things that Impact # of kills in a county. I bet if you went back and checked 2020 was an outstanding or possibly record setting year in most counties because of so many people off work due to COVID-19. More people in the woods, more days equals more turkeys killed and we set a state record. By your logic after 2020 we should have increased the bag limit to 5 because we had a turkey explosion and killed over 40,000 birds and counties set records. I think we all know that is not the case. Again it is ok for us to disagree on your analysis of what counties have a bleak outlook and the reasoning behind it. We will just have to say that we agree to disagree, but I have no reason in the world to be dishonest about a couple counties I hunt in actually getting better where I hunt in them. I realize that may not be the case for all counties and stated that clearly in my previous post. Again I will go along with whatever is done to fix the problem for all of us .I think that is why certain counties are being studied so intensely, to make decisions on the future of turkey hunting in TN.
 
Knothead said:
Just curious as to what all factors you have plugged into your analysis? Have you factored in the actual number of turkey hunters (as opposed to the number of licenses sold)? One can't assume that because someone bought a sportsman's license that they also hunt turkey. I know lots of folks who dont hunt turkey, but have either a lifetime license or a sportsman's license.
'Same store analysis' over an extended period of time can show a lot more accurate information.
I would venture to guess that many of the lifetime license holders and/or those who historically purchase sportsman's license are baby boomers (like me) and we know THEIR numbers are declining.
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How do I know this,Im just saying the turkey's are really declining in so many counties in Tennessee.I can say this about Clay county,their are many,many hunter's in Clay county.I just don't get people who argue against the facts of declining turkey's in this state.Several years ago,there were hunters in some southern Tennessee counties started to let people know that something was going wrong in their counties and probably not many listened to them but I sure did because the same was happening in my county of Clay!
 
deerfever said:
I wouldn't tell a man where I turkey hunt for all the money in the world, PM or otherwise. Lol, I have learned a few things over the years. I also hunt public 95 percent of the time so it will go to my grave! You are getting on people for not believing exactly as you but can't see the other side of the coin? Why do you doubt some areas have not dropped off or have expanded? I believe you about Clay county, I have made that clear with no problem at all. You didn't provide 10/12 years of information on all the counties you listed just simply they only killed 200 or below so it is a bleak outlook. The only county you listed that kind of information for was Clay and I agreed with you. You will have to accept the fact that I don't agree with your analysis that all counties that kill 200 or less have a bleak outlook. I gave you my reasoning and I think it's sound. Weather on weekends , # of hunters in each county , size of county all are things that Impact # of kills in a county. I bet if you went back and checked 2020 was an outstanding or possibly record setting year in most counties because of so many people off work due to COVID-19. More people in the woods, more days equals more turkeys killed and we set a state record. By your logic after 2020 we should have increased the bag limit to 5 because we had a turkey explosion and killed over 40,000 birds and counties set records. I think we all know that is not the case. Again it is ok for us to disagree on your analysis of what counties have a bleak outlook and the reasoning behind it. We will just have to say that we agree to disagree, but I have no reason in the world to be dishonest about a couple counties I hunt in actually getting better where I hunt in them. I realize that may not be the case for all counties and stated that clearly in my previous post. Again I will go along with whatever is done to fix the problem for all of us .I think that is why certain counties are being studied so intensely, to make decisions on the future of turkey hunting in TN.
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but I have no reason in the world to be dishonest about a couple counties I hunt in actually getting better where I hunt in them.

Thought so,its easy to argue against my point of view when your doing great!There are alot more counties in this state than yours that are not doing great!!You said I didnt go back 12 years in every low kill county to check harvest,no I didnt but neither did you!!My whole point of my post was most Tennessee counties are suffering a rapid decline of turkey's and your wanting to argue against the point!
 
Bottom dropping out of fur market and fewer people trapping is having more of an effect than most realize or will admit. Coons and possums and coyotes kill way more birds than hunters ever will. Hardly anyone manages them outside of a random kill of one during deer season. Add on the raptors on top of all that and you can start to get a more clear picture. Putting the smack down on coons and possums should be step number one. Arguing for shorter seasons and reduced bag limits isn't going to stop the decline in turkey numbers.
 
Wrangler95 said:
but I have no reason in the world to be dishonest about a couple counties I hunt in actually getting better where I hunt in them.Thought so,its easy to argue against my point of view when your doing great!There are alot more counties in this state than yours that are not doing great!!You said I didnt go back 12 years in every low kill county to check harvest,no I didnt but neither did you!!My whole point of my post was most Tennessee counties are suffering a rapid decline of turkey's and your wanting to argue against the point!
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I am just dropping it, you don't read my whole post evidently. Go back and read where I have said everytime that I realized all counties aren't doing so well,.I am talking about two counties.that I hunt ! I am not arguing at all with you but I will stress one more time that I do disagree with your analysis of what makes an outlook bleak for a county. No I didn't post up every county for 12 years but I am not the guy that posted a list of counties and declared the outlook of turkey hunting was bleak with a year of harvest data in those counties. I could Go post up 2020 and tell us that turkeys are on the rise in 95 percent of the counties. That wouldn't be accurate at all , it works both ways. Again let's just agree to disagree and move forward no big deal at all to disagree on something.
 
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AT Hiker said:
Haha, we are not hurting for hunters. We have more than enough…old, young, healthy, fat,etc.
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I can speak for hunters in Clay county,more turkey hunters now than ever and lots less turkey's.My neighbor is an avid turkey hunter,no turkeys on our hunting property,he didn't even hunt because of it!
 
Wrangler95 said:
I can speak for hunters in Clay county,more turkey hunters now than ever and lots less turkey's.My neighbor is an avid turkey hunter,no turkeys on our hunting property,he didn't even hunt because of it!
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Totally sucks, but gotta go where there are a few birds. My lease in south MS had zero toms in 2020 and 2021... so I didn't waste my time there and hunted public. Crazy thing is we had 10 toms on the place this year. So I only hunted public 3x in 2022. None of the other members killed a bird on my lease this year, and I know of 4 toms and 5 jakes that made it to May 2nd.... but no guarantees they will be there 2023.
 
megalomaniac said:
In general, the record kill of 2020 is causing a sig decrease in 2021, and now 2022. WAY too many birds were killed that year, not enough left for seed.
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Problem #1 in Clay county is no poults to replace the dead adult birds!!I suspect this the biggest problem in all places the turkey's are disappearing!
 
megalomaniac said:
In general, the record kill of 2020 is causing a sig decrease in 2021, and now 2022. WAY too many birds were killed that year, not enough left for seed.
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from what I've seen we've had good hatches in several counties I've hunted over the past couple years. Some of the most insane hunting pressure I've ever seen in 2020, yet birds still hatch and raise lots of poults. And there are raccoons, coyotes, bobcats, and birds of prey everywhere. That's why it's a mystery why populations decline in some areas that have seemingly good habitat, but thrive in other areas with tons of predators and hunting pressure.

Trapping I think is very important if there has been a decline and you're trying to help the turkeys repopulate. But I don't think predators are always the cause for a decline. Too many factors and guesses and not enough solid answers...
 

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