OHVATN":1c5wilws said:
Still need to win out, but would have been a clearer road to the playoffs had ttun not lost last night. Yet, Ohio State should be #2 Tuesday night and if they win out (ttun probably drops to 4 maybe 5) can they be dropped to 5 after the Big Ten championship game?
Yeah, I'd bet the ranch that OSU is ranked #2 this week, but as I've stated so many times that even I'm getting tired of it, this week's is simply a
mock poll. We have to polish up the crystal ball a little if we really want to predict who's in the playoffs.
My current prediction (in no particular order):
1.
Alabama. They've pretty much got this one sewed up. I honestly think Bama could be upset in either the Iron Bowl or the SEC championship and still make the playoffs. They wouldn't be #1, but they've already got enough "points" with the committee to make the top 4. If they lose both, they don't deserve to be in. Unfortunately for the conference , I don't see any other SEC team making it in if Alabama implodes.
2.
Michigan. Win out and they're in. Lose to Ohio State and they're out. Beat Ohio State and then lose Big-10 Championship, I seriously doubt it, but still possible.
-OR-
Ohio State. Beat Michigan and they're in. Lose and they're out. An OSU win over Michigan almost guarantees a 2 loss Big-10 Champ (looks like PSU or Wisconsin). I think the committee ranks a one loss OSU over a two loss conference champ. Of course if PSU loses to Sparty, OSU has a shot at the championship outright.
3.
Clemson. Win out and they're in. Lose another one and they're out. With remaining games against Wake Forest, South Carolina and most likely Va Tech in the ACC championship, I'd give them pretty good odds of making it in.
4.
Washington. They've gotta win out. If so they're a one-loss PAC-12 champ. Combine how they looked last night with the fact that they have a play a hot Washington State in Pullman, and then either Colorado or Utah (both playing well) in the championship, and I see a high probability of a loss. That would result in a two-loss PAC-12 champ, and given their weak SoS (Wazzou lost to
FCS Eastern Washington), I see the PAC-12 left out entirely.
So, with a pretty good chance that the PAC-12 may not get in, who's on deck?
1.
Louisville. They'll be ACCa co-champs, but lose the head-to-head with Clemson. With only one loss, and that being a very close one to Clemson in Death Valley, plus a probably Heisman Trophy winner, I see the Cardinals as being the favorite to sneak in to any open spot. This includes situations where Clemson is already in, meaning the ACC may be the first conference with two teams in the playoffs.
2.
BIG 12 Champ. Probably Oklahoma, but Oke State and W. Virginia are still in it. W. Virginia would be the strongest candidate with only one loss, but their SoS stinks. Either one of the Oklahomas would have two losses. Any way you look at it, I see the BIG-12 behind Louisville, but if two of the top 4 fall out they could sneak in.
3.
Wisconsin/Penn State. If either one wins the Big-10. Their resume is probably or par or better than the BIG 12 champ, but I see politics winning out here: ain't no way the committee puts in a second Big-10 team (with a mediocre record) while leaving out two of the Power 5.
4.
Colorado/Utah. If either wins the PAC-12. Would have two losses and a SoS even worse than the BIG 12. Serious long shot. No shot at all for Washington State even if they win it: that Eastern Washington loss kills them.
5.
Western Michigan. Yeah, right. They'll probably go undefeated, but would have to win the MAC championship game in overwhelming fashion
plus the committee would have to
heavily weigh conference championships. SoS just isn't there. They could very well swing a CFP bowl, though.
Just my thoughts. We'll get to see how it pans out.
