I saw this on another site.
A LOT depends on the defense.
Optimistic: 10-2, with Josh Heupel winning SEC Coach of the Year and Big Orange Nation declaring the Vols "BACK!" They get revenge against Pitt on the road and also beat Florida, LSU and Kentucky, giving them their first 10-win season in 15 years. Hendon Hooker leads the SEC in touchdowns and Heupel's all gas, no breaks offense is actually what Steve Sarkisian wants his Texas unit to be. Former 5-star wideout Bru McCoy emerges as a dynamic second-option opposite Tillman. Tennessee's offensive line becomes much better at protecting the passer (44 sacks allowed in 2021). The defense is more than serviceable and Bryon Young develops into a star pass rusher, recording 10 sacks. The transfer portal additions of Wesley Walker and Andre Turrentine help stabilize a shaky secondary.
Pessimistic: 5-7, with Tennessee fans questioning if Year 1 was merely a mirage. September could be awesome (see above) but it could also be awful, as the Vols lose at Pitt and then continue their rough play against the Gators two weeks later. Tennessee has had Kentucky's number, but that changes, too. While the offense is guaranteed to score points in bunches, the defense is way worse without Alontae Taylor and Matthew Butler. The Vols remain awful at keeping teams out of the end once they reach the red zone. Their secondary gets sliced and diced on a weekly basis.
Realistic: 8-4, securing a New Year's Day bowl game in the Sunshine State for Vol Nation. Nine wins isn't out of the question if the opening month goes well. Tennessee averages north of 40 points per game in 2022, needing to score even more to cover for a defense that still can't stop anyone consistently. The concerns at cornerback are real, with the Vols constantly rotating a cast of characters looking for suitable replacements for Taylor and Bryce Thompson. Penalties (11th in the SEC last season) are an issue again, too.