Humans v Data Analytics

[PillsburyDoughboy]

Week 4 is in the books and the new AP poll came out this afternoon. Bill Connolly released his SP+ a few hours later. This also means that SP+ now has mostly in-season data contributing to its results, with only two more weeks of preseason "returning production" data reflected in the SP+ results. As the Gator n Buck said, you have to be careful reading too much into any of the rankings until the end of the season because none of us know who is actually good and who is a pretender. Nonetheless, i lean towards the data all season and ignore the humans. FEI hasn't updated for week 4 yet, so I'll update for F+ later. For the entire week 4 SP+ and an explanation, go here: https://www.espn.com/college-football/s ... state-move

Again, I'm just providing the information, no judgments. But there are some interesting observations for comparing the AP to the data analytics.

Here are the top 10:

AP SP+
1- Clemson Alabama
2- Alabama Ohio State
3- Georgia Clemson
4- LSU Georgia
5- Ohio State Wisconsin
6- Oklahoma Oklahoma
7- Auburn LSU
8- Wisconsin Florida
9- Florida Washington
10- Notre Dame Auburn

AP voters love them some Texas (AP #11), but SP+ isn't as impressed (SP+ #19). Conversely, AP voters rank Washington 8 spots lower than SP+ and have the Huskies at #17. But AP voters really love Cal and Virginia, while SP+ thinks both are downright bad. AP voters have Cal at #15, but SP+ ranks them all the way down at #44. AP voters have Virginia at #18, but SP+ has them at #37. Btw, SP+ was 65% against the spread yesterday. I think that's pretty good, but I don't bet.

Last, SP+ will reward a team for a loss and penalize a team for a win. Oklahoma State rose from #27 to #24 in SP+ after their close (unlucky?) loss to a good Texas team on the road last night. Virginia fell from #34 to #37 in SP+ after their close win at home over Old Dominion. AP voters moved Virginia from #25 to #18 for that win over Old Dominion. Yeah right.

Clemson and ALABAMA are still the teams to beat this year . Georgia looked like a mess against ND and even after they regrouped after halftime they didn't look much better . Not sure Georgia is going to be as big of a threat this year as they have been in the past .

Little old Vandy sure put some points up on LSU . LSU apparently has some real weaknesses in their defense to let that happen .

That leaves Ohio State Wisconsin and Oklahoma as the real teams to watch outside the top two IMHO .

Roll Tide


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[gator-n-buck]

Well, F+ for week 4 updated today. I doubt that anyone really cares. But I don't care, I'm going to tell you anyway. Maybe someone does, and the rest of you might learn something. I'll also make 5 picks and we can see how the machines do vs. Vegas.

F+ Week 4 Top 10
1- Alabama
2- Clemson
3- Ohio State
4- Georgia
5- Oklahoma
6- Wisconsin
7- LSU
8- Auburn
9- Notre Dame
10- Oregon

Like SP+, F+ also doesn't like Texas, UVA or Cal. F+ ranks Texas 22, UVA 37, and Cal 39. Btw, F+ has Florida at 11, but also has Memphis at 21. At least for the 5 games that I picked, SP+ spreads are tighter than the F+ spreads. After week 6 and once both analytical measures are relying solely on the current season data, it will be interesting to see if their spreads start to better align. Here are my games/picks (no UT as I think they have a bye this week and remember the SP+ and F+ spreads are neutral field. I'm giving 3 points for home field advantage.):

Ohio State at Nebraska: line OSU -17. SP+ spread is 21.6. F+ spread is 38. Pick: Ohio State covers.

Penn State at Maryland: line PSU -6.5. SP+ spread 11. F+ spread 27.5!! Pick: tough given the divergence, but I'm picking PSU to cover.

USC at Washington: line UW -10.5. SP+ spread 9.5. F+ spread 16.8. Pick: Udub with home field advantage, I'm picking UW to cover.

Ole Miss at Alabama: line Bama -38. SP+ spread 29.6. F+ spread 44.9. Pick: a lot like picking the PSU/MD game, but I'm picking Bama to cover.

Kentucky at South Carolina: line USCar -3. SP+ spread 1.5. F+ spread 0.4. The only game of the five where the nerds are close to agreement. Pick: USCar to cover only because of home field.

I like your picks but might be a little concern about the high spread on the ole miss vs Bama game.

 

[buckaroo]

I think LSU, and Auburn will take them down

 

[gator-n-buck]

Some good stuff...