I'm not hearing many even gobbling on the roost, even when I know there is a longbeard or two in the vicinity.
I have come up with several "theories" regarding why a lot less gobbling this year (in my areas), and I believe each kinda "synergizes" the others.
1. We had (perhaps mainly luck) above average nesting success last year in 2021.
This has resulted in their being more jakes & jennies this year.
But this also skews the 2-yr-old Tom to female ratio (many more females than male birds).
2. Relatively few jakes & 2-yr-old Toms survived in 2020 or 2021, and, the nesting success in 2020 may have been average at best.
3. Increased predation, especially on strutting Toms.
4. We really have relatively few 2-yr-old or older Toms now.
5. Birds continue holding more in deep hardwood hollows rather than dispersing more into fields.
This is due mainly to both an incredible red oak acorn crop as well as a late spring.
Because of the above, the few Toms around have less need to gobble to find a hen, in part due to some many hens relative to so few Toms. But also in part because many flocks are still a bit "bunched" in hardwood hollows, and more hens appear to have nested there than around many fields where they have more commonly nested.
So there has been less "need" to gobble. But there has also been greater risk to gobble.
With more jakes than usual, gobbling Toms are more likely to be attacked by groups of jakes. A group of 3 or more jakes can run off a Tom.
But this may be the biggest factor of all:
The "evolution" of less gobbling by 2-yr-old and older birds.
Toms simply do not gobble as frequently as in times past (with the above factors).
I'm attributing this evolution mainly to increased predation over the past many years.
Predators have also evolved (as well as increased in numbers).
Coyotes & bobcats, once mainly nocturnal hunters, have evolved to do significant daytime hunting specifically for turkeys. They have learned that a strutting Tom is the easiest turkey to catch & kill.
Those that gobble & strut a lot, are more likely to not live past 2 yrs of age.
And speaking of predators, the single biggest "new" hunter of the strutting Tom out in field has become the bald eagle. This is in addition to the huge increase in hawks which are killing more & more young turkeys.
Just saying, more vocal birds attract more predators, and the survivors tend to be those birds less inclined to gobble and/or make any typical "turkey" sounds. Even the few bobwhite quail we have around here have become eerily quite, no longer singing their once common morning whistles, never mind there are a few around.
