Here's my take on all that.
I would say in my area of southern middle Tennessee is anywhere from April 7-15 on average is nest initiation. Count 12-14 days for it to lay the complete clutch. So incubation will start somewhere usually around April 20-30 or so. Average hatch is usually around Memorial Day. It fluctuates of course, but I think this is on average. I have seen poults a day or two or three old actually during turkey season, during that first week of May at least three different times that I know of. These are the early breeders though. Most poults I begin to see (when we used to see a bunch that is) would be the last week of May to first week of June. (This is all in my area of southern middle Tennessee)
About gobblers moving in after another bird is removed...
I think if there are gobblers in the area they do indeed move in. But with the extremely low density some of these areas have once a gobbler or two is killed the first week of the season many hens may not have been bred at all. Think about this. They are wild animals that God created. All they know in the springtime is to survive and reproduce. I do not think that the hens just think to themselves "I'm not going to raise young this summer." I think they will actively seek another gobbler if the one they were with is killed. Also, I've read that wild turkey fertility is extremely high. Some of the Jakes probably aren't fertile, but the two year olds about have to be. Now, do they get scared to breed because they've been beatin into submission? Possibly but I can't see any wild animal doing that at all. But I do think it could happen.
Mega is right about the amount of males in the population. Increased male presence does drive the libido, fertility, and reproduction up in the males. They know that they have to keep gobbling and fighting in order to breed.
I stand by my argument that the season is opening too early, too many gobblers are killed too early before hens breed. Also hens may need to breed again if nest is broken. Another thing that effects wild turkey fertility-hens only have to breed once to have fertile eggs, but the more breeding they do the higher fertility they do have.
So my proposal would be to: leave limits and fall seasons as is, except combine the two throughout the hunting season. Delay spring season 10-12 days, maybe for extended hunting time add a week or so at the end. It may be hot and miserable but the birds are still out there and still gobbling, albeit may not be as good.
And if there was any way to reduce the decoys it would help tremendously. Our overall harvest numbers would be down, but in turn we would have way more birds to chase and play the game with.
A whole nother chapter on this would be about managing properties conducive to hens and poults... but that's another story.
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