Steve's observations on turkey management

[scn]

I have to run an errand in just a minute, but before I do, I thought I would give some observations after sitting through the last two days of the commission meeting. They are free, and likely are worth about as much. Some run contrary to the views being posted today, some are the same. So, random, and not in order of importance:

1. Biologist mindset. I've seen more than one comment about biologists and arrogance the past little while. I guess because I personally know these guys and gals, I can truthfully say that I did not see any of that. What I did see is the biologist mindset of decisions being driven almost totally by data rather than input from the field/casual observations. To understand that mindset, you have to understand that different people have different ranking levels of importance in what they consider in making decisions. If you ask an engineer, they will tell you that "numbers" are often the most important factor in their job decisions, and that mindset even carries over to their personal life. That is how their mind is geared. If you go towards the other end of the spectrum to a law enforcement person like me, you would be told that "numbers" are way down my ranking order of importance. I value more field type observations that I make, or that people that I trust completely make. Those are more intuitive decisions.

And, the bottom line, is that neither are right or wrong. They are just how different type people reach end decisions.

My observations from being in the field 38+ years is that a majority of biologists trust data more than casual observations. In reaching their end decisions, a data point on a regression line is more important to them than say Steve telling them there is a problem. They "see" through their data. And, again, it doesn't make them wrong. It is just a different way of reaching an end decision than the way a lot of us would go about it.

And, another real facet of their mindset, is that they are VERY reluctant to do something unless they are convinced from their data that there will be a positive outcome from their change. They do not throw things against the wall to see what sticks. That is exactly what happened in withdrawing some of the fall season cut backs. They had seen a positive correlation between some fall cuts in the 2014 fall hunts resulting in a stabilization in the spring 2014 harvest. They thought they were on to something, and wanted to expand it to other areas. Fast forward to the same counties, same fall cuts, and the 2015 spring season. Unfortunately, the decline continued this year. Thus, they felt that the cuts they had suggested in April would no longer bring a positive result. They decided that taking away hunter opportunity for no reasons that they could justify any longer was not worth the change. I don't know that I agree with that decision, but I do respect their thought process in making it.

I'll go ahead and put this up. I have a couple more thoughts to share, but I really need to get to the bank before it closes. I finally found a travel trailer I was looking for, and need the check for it today so I can pick it up next Tuesday (my credit union closed tomorrow and Monday).

 

[scn]

Part 2.Turkey population dynamics. One of my life's goals has always been to try to learn something new every day. I accomplished that yesterday when I learned something 'new" in biology, or at least it clicked in. One of Roger's first slides had some graphs showing the rise and fall of our turkey flock. In addition, he had a "textbook" graph of growth and decline for all types of animals going through restoration that has been documented through various studies. When I got my masters many years ago, we were taught population dynamics, but most of it revolved around predator/prey relationships. I remember zero discussion on restoration dynamics. And, that is reasonable since when I came on, the large scale restoration work on deer, turkey, elk, etc. was just in the beginning phases. There had not been time to scientifically look at their growth curves because everything was still on the steep climb upward.

Fast forward to today. The "textbook graph" of general restoration phase population dynamics is ALMOST a mirror image of what we are seeing with the turkeys. And, the same dynamics are being seen all across the southeast. The dynamics of the growth are a steep climb upwards to some unknown point, a leveling off or plateau for a short period, and then a fairly significant decline. On the way up, reproduction is at its peak because the animals have everything they need in primary food sources, nesting or rearing cover, escape cover, etc. The population actually peaks above the carrying capacity. As some of the carrying capacity limiters start to kick in, the population begins its decline to what the carrying capacity is for that critter. Reproduction stabilizes at a much lower level than what it had on the upwards climb. The population then stabilizes at that carrying capacity with some peaks and valleys usually related to food supply, nest failures due to weather, etc. I've asked the agency to discuss this in the upcoming hunting guide by someone far more learned than me along with the appropriate graphics.

So, how is the above germane to our turkey discussions? Well, to me it provides some explanation on why things have peaked and gone downhill. The agency probably should have shown that graph 20 years ago so hunters like me would be ready for the inevitable to set in. The high point is totally a guess. You can plot the rate of growth and try to extrapolate it into remaining acres of habitat, but it is a guess. But, the inevitable decline is a given. While I don't like seeing the decline, I understand it a little better today.

But, even knowing it was inevitable doesn't mean I don't have some concerns. Some of our flocks are not stabilizing as quickly as anticipated. There are some other factors in play as we go down. They seem to be in play across several southeastern states. Thus, there is a multi-state study going on trying to figure out where some of the unanticipated mortality might be coming from. So far that study has yielded no answers. So, they are continuing it and looking at different things.

3. So where does that leave Steve as a turkey hunter? I actually left the meeting feeling a little better about the current state of affairs as there is a reasonable explanation with a scientific basis. I am saddened by my "new" knowledge that we have seen the best and in all probability will NEVER get back to that level unless TN turkey dynamics somehow break the mold and blaze new ground. My goal as a hunter/manager now is to advocate ideas that will help stabilize our flock at the highest possible level, and "smooth out" some of the inevitable dips that are programmed to occur.

4. How do we do that? IMO, the answer is to do our best to work WITH the agency and Commission. Name calling and mud slinging are counter productive. From what I sensed the last couple of days, this is about the first time the Commission has heard any concerns (starting a few months ago with more negative input during the season setting) about the TN turkey flock on a large scale basis. They know of issues in southern middle TN, but were not hearing any major concerns from across the state. I talked to biologist friends that I trust totally that are telling me that they are getting no negative reports in their region. So, we as hunters need to do a better job of voicing legitimate concerns backed up by accurate observations/data if those concerns are valid.

I also left with the feeling that the concerns Chris and I brought forward would be looked into in the coming months. As I've said in another thread, I knew before going that it was highly unlikely that any major changes would be done for this year. With my time with the agency, I've never seen anything controversial (and cutting hunter opportunity qualifies for controversial) done the first time it was aired. There is almost always a beginning discussion, some study, and then some actions. Change takes time and can be maddening to all of us that want it done yesterday. But, sometimes being right is better than being quick.

I apologize for the rambling nature of my comments. I know they won't be liked and accepted by all, and that is fine. But, they represent where I am today after the last two days of discussions with agency personnel and Commissioners. I remain concerned about the declines, but more optimistic than a day or two ago that they will be addressed if enough hunters make them feel it is necessary. As stated before, I plan to continue my efforts to see some changes. However, I can promise you that my efforts alone will not be enough. If TN turkey hunters want change, I think it is obtainable, but they are going to have to put forth some effort to get it done.

Thanks gals and guys!

 

[Buzzard Breath]

Thanks for the insight. I personally don't know enough about turkeys to have made any educated recommendations to the commission, so I sat back and just read all the posts he on tndeer. I plan to keep this information in mind while I learn more on the subject.

 

[Andy S.]

Great recap Steve, and very informative for those who were unaware of the "curve" you speak of, the same one Daryl (BGG) has referenced/mentioned many times over the years. Thank YOU for taking the time to give a well written summary of your takeaways from the last few days of meetings.

 

[AlabamaSwamper]

Good posts Steve. Having a few friends that are biologists in other states, I am fortunate to get some insight also but not near to the extent you do of course.

All i know is, it is very depressing as to the state of the turkey population in Wayne CO. Very depressing. What was once the most talked about area for 200 miles has become a wasteland in some areas. I don't blame the TWRA one bit though. I never though the limits were hurting anything. There is definately something going on. I mean, Alabama has had a 5 bird (honor system) for as long as I can remember. Yet, the only place that seems to be losing birds is around my house which is less than 3 miles from the TN state line.

Now, if a 5 bird limit for the last 30 years isn't hurting Alabama, no way a 4 bird limit for what, 6-8 years, has hurt TN. JMO on that.

 

[callemquacktn]

Great post ,Steve!

 

[scn]

Good posts Steve. Having a few friends that are biologists in other states, I am fortunate to get some insight also but not near to the extent you do of course.

All i know is, it is very depressing as to the state of the turkey population in Wayne CO. Very depressing. What was once the most talked about area for 200 miles has become a wasteland in some areas. I don't blame the TWRA one bit though. I never though the limits were hurting anything. There is definately something going on. I mean, Alabama has had a 5 bird (honor system) for as long as I can remember. Yet, the only place that seems to be losing birds is around my house which is less than 3 miles from the TN state line.

Now, if a 5 bird limit for the last 30 years isn't hurting Alabama, no way a 4 bird limit for what, 6-8 years, has hurt TN. JMO on that.

It is very obvious to a bunch of folks that something way past the expected decline is happening in southern middle TN. I hope they can get it figured out so perhaps it can be addressed.

 

[FARMTOFIELD]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, there are bigger factors at play.

Predators, hatch, fall season, spring bag limits, don't kill turkeys off in one year

 

[woodsman87]

I've said it before, I was always worried that this would be the new normal.

After a restocking effort, there is a population boom, then steady decline until it gets level.

We will probably never see another boom, and we probably will not see any short term spikes since it is legal to kill hens.

Sent from my Lumia 900 using Tapatalk

 

[AlabamaSwamper]

Great job of explaining that Steve, your viewpoint helps everyone see things from other angles that are otherwise overlooked.

I've hunted quite a bit in southern middle TN, lived there for several years. One of the main differences between east TN and SM/TN is there's a lot more agriculture there, mostly corn and soybeans. I've been wondering if its possible that a new process or chemical has been introduced that could be causing a problem. Has anyone studied the latest practices of ag. and whether or not this could be affecting the turkeys?

Thanks again for your input.

There is little to no farming in my area. Wayne CO isn't an agriculture county like some other TN counties are. I'd dare say 99% of the land in this county is timber and pasture, mostly some sort of timber.

Great post, and probably spot on to what is going on in our state's turkey biologist's minds.

While they get it sorted out, lets up our game and do a better job of tagging out on spring and fall limits. The decline in our population isn't enough to register on their radar... we need to do a little more damage to actually affect the data. Hmmm... let's take this a step further... since reducing fall limits didn't improve spring hunting, let's try the opposite... let's RAISE the fall hen limits to see if that helps spring hunting. If we can kill all the hens in the fall, the gobblers will become more desperate and easier to call in... the spring gobbler kill will therefore go up! Fall hen hunting FTW!

I know a bunch of turkey hunters in my area. Very few if any the last few years has killed 4. Mostly 1-2 birds with a couple killing 3. There are some that kill 4 I'm sure. I know of 2 properties that get fall hunted or has in the past. Two, that's all. I'm sure there are others but I know a BUNCH of turkey hunters and I know of two properties that get hunted and one they didn't kill hens. Fall season didn't kill this county's population. Neither did spring season or 4 bird limits. You just can't imagine the hunting we had from 1998 til about 2007. It was unmatched in the southeast. Then slowly it went to crap. Hearing dozens of birds the last day every year made it evident we wasn't hurting the numbers. They have just slowly dissapeared. I've shot one bird since 2010 on our place. One. Used to kill #1 on opening day every year then play with old birds and still kill 2-3 for the season before I started fishing.

I really don't know other than it's bad here. And they are the same way below the state line here in Alabama. But go across the river and there are as many birds as ever.

 

[deerchaser007]

Scn, thanks for posting. Its great to know they presented those slides. But, I kinda expected that to happen. That's why a posted that topic ( do you remember). Just about anyone, hunter and biologist will point to 2004 as peak. But, to get the down and dirty facts, you have to look at more than numbers. Biologist should look at past data from those peak years, not just harvest and recruitment rates. You have to look on the larger scale. In 2004 it was clearly stated that there were still many areas that lacked turkey, enough to the point it may take more releasing to populate the areas. Peak as a whole for the state could not be possible if we had areas without a population. You can claim that as peak, but its obvious expansion of the population was still in progress. With a few bad hatch's it slowed the expansion, thus keeping those birds in their same social group in same areas. But, we never reached the goal of 2.7 hpp to sustain the population again, so expansion never happened either.

 

[8 POINTS OR BETTER]

Fall season didn't kill this county's population. Neither did spring season or 4 bird limits. You just can't imagine the hunting we had from 1998 til about 2007. It was unmatched in the southeast. Then slowly it went to crap. Hearing dozens of birds the last day every year made it evident we wasn't hurting the numbers. They have just slowly dissapeared.

What makes you think the limit has not hurt the population. Look at your post, the limit went to 4 in 2006 and you said the hunting started going down hill in 2007 and is now crap. The limit is the only thing that has changed that we know of.

 

[deerchaser007]

Fall season didn't kill this county's population. Neither did spring season or 4 bird limits. You just can't imagine the hunting we had from 1998 til about 2007. It was unmatched in the southeast. Then slowly it went to crap. Hearing dozens of birds the last day every year made it evident we wasn't hurting the numbers. They have just slowly dissapeared.

What makes you think the limit has not hurt the population. Look at your post, the limit went to 4 in 2006 and you said the hunting started going down hill in 2007 and is now crap. The limit is the only thing that has changed that we know of.

That and we have not had a hpp ratio over 2.5 in 12 years! Most years -2.5

 

[AlabamaSwamper]

Fall season didn't kill this county's population. Neither did spring season or 4 bird limits. You just can't imagine the hunting we had from 1998 til about 2007. It was unmatched in the southeast. Then slowly it went to crap. Hearing dozens of birds the last day every year made it evident we wasn't hurting the numbers. They have just slowly dissapeared.

What makes you think the limit has not hurt the population. Look at your post, the limit went to 4 in 2006 and you said the hunting started going down hill in 2007 and is now crap. The limit is the only thing that has changed that we know of.

as stated earlier, we had more birds than anywhere in AL I've ever hunted and I've been all over that state. Yet with their 5 bird limit, their populations haven't bottomed out, except right here which borders wayne co, tn. To me, if a 5 bird limit hasn't hurt AL then how has a 4 bird limit caused near extinction of turkeys in southern wayne co?

The weather from wayne co is no different than Colbert co, AL yet their 5 bird limit hasn't bottomed that flock out.

I just don't buy that the limit had done it. It isn't just gobblers. Our hens are nearly gone to. The whole flock is vanishing.

A few people killing one extra gobbler across an entire region isn't going to cause that.

Btw, I never killed 4. killed 3 several times but not since 2010.

 

[8 POINTS OR BETTER]

Fall season didn't kill this county's population. Neither did spring season or 4 bird limits. You just can't imagine the hunting we had from 1998 til about 2007. It was unmatched in the southeast. Then slowly it went to crap. Hearing dozens of birds the last day every year made it evident we wasn't hurting the numbers. They have just slowly dissapeared.

What makes you think the limit has not hurt the population. Look at your post, the limit went to 4 in 2006 and you said the hunting started going down hill in 2007 and is now crap. The limit is the only thing that has changed that we know of.

as stated earlier, we had more birds than anywhere in AL I've ever hunted and I've been all over that state. Yet with their 5 bird limit, their populations haven't bottomed out, except right here which borders wayne co, tn. To me, if a 5 bird limit hasn't hurt AL then how has a 4 bird limit caused near extinction of turkeys in southern wayne co?


The weather from wayne co is no different than Colbert co, AL yet their 5 bird limit hasn't bottomed that flock out.

I just don't buy that the limit had done it. It isn't just gobblers. Our hens are nearly gone to. The whole flock is vanishing.

A few people killing one extra gobbler across an entire region isn't going to cause that.

Btw, I never killed 4. killed 3 several times but not since 2010.

Sounds like there is not much that will help then, keep on killing them.

But it don't sound like you accessament of the AL flock is to accurate.

"If you're one of Alabama's 60,000 turkey hunters and you are of the belief that there aren't as many turkeys in Alabama as there used to be, you are not imagining things.

Wild turkey numbers are down not only in Alabama, but across the entire South. Biologists are unsure why.

District Wildlife Biologist Steve Barnett says studies have shown there has been a steady decline in turkey reproduction numbers in recent years. He says biologists are not sure if that decline is being caused by predators, weather, habitat loss or other factors.

The state is so concerned that Wildlife and Freshwater Fisheries and the Auburn University School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences will soon begin the most comprehensive, long-term study of wild turkey in the state's history. The project will take place in three locations in the state and will last five years. The study will determine the reproduction, survival and harvest rates as well as movement patterns of wild turkey.

The turkey numbers in recent years have been alarming. Despite more Alabama turkey hunters than at any time during the last decade, surveys show turkey harvest numbers have declined significantly in recent years."

 

[AlabamaSwamper]

Big difference in what most of Alabama is seeing and what we are. Being down and being near extinct is two different things. I do agree, lots of the southern US has issues but nothing like southern Middle TN that I've seen or heard. Go to ALdeer. You can read their turkey forum and see they aren't haveing this issue like we are. I know a bunch of people that hunt all over AL and many of them have no problem killing 5 birds. I got several friends in GA. They have plenty of turkeys. They can kill 3, all in the same day and it happens a lot.

I honestly don't know what the problem is. I just don't buy limits are the problem. We aren't killing the hens and never have. The habitat hasn't changed either and there has always been predators here. Coyotes were even here many years before a turkey stepped foot on our place. I've killed three turkeys on our place since opening day 2010. Three and that is all that has been killed. That year we had 8 gobbling birds. This year we had 2. Last year we had 4. Year before that we had 3. Used to average 15+. On top of that, I've got better nesting habitat now that we did in the 90's when they moved in our area.

 

[8 POINTS OR BETTER]

Big difference in what most of Alabama is seeing and what we are. Being down and being near extinct is two different things. I do agree, lots of the southern US has issues but nothing like southern Middle TN that I've seen or heard. Go to ALdeer. You can read their turkey forum and see they aren't haveing this issue like we are. I know a bunch of people that hunt all over AL and many of them have no problem killing 5 birds. I got several friends in GA. They have plenty of turkeys. They can kill 3, all in the same day and it happens a lot.

I honestly don't know what the problem is. I just don't buy limits are the problem. We aren't killing the hens and never have. The habitat hasn't changed either and there has always been predators here. Coyotes were even here many years before a turkey stepped foot on our place. I've killed three turkeys on our place since opening day 2010. Three and that is all that has been killed. That year we had 8 gobbling birds. This year we had 2. Last year we had 4. Year before that we had 3. Used to average 15+. On top of that, I've got better nesting habitat now that we did in the 90's when they moved in our area.

It doesn't matter how good the habitat is, if there is not enough toms to breed the hens, and especially if they need to renest.