Birds are farther down the flyway this year than in the past several years. The key will be weather between now and solstice. We really need about two more really cold blasts between now and then to drive birds down out of mid MO and Illinois where they seemed to be more or less stacked. Have heard southern Iowa is pretty loaded as well and think their season is already closed. The Missouri counts released last week are impressive (as usual compared to KY and TN) but markedly better than last several years at this time. Same for the Forbes Biological Station reports.
Might go without saying but in addition to the cold blasts that freeze stuff up and give them the NW wind that assists them with getting south, we need significant (5"+) snow cover for several days to cover their food and force them off the big and moving water.