What am I seeing in the data?

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BSK

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Looking at my trail-cam data for older bucks (2 1/2+ year-olds) over the years, I keep seeing the same odd peaks in activity. Since 2019 (when we started having much more cover on the property, hence bucks did not react as quickly or dramatically to our hunting pressure), in decent acorn years, I keep seeing a "double peak" in buck activity on camera on the exact same days every year. In between these two peaks is a significant lull in activity. The first peak is the last couple of days of October into the first few days of November. The second peak is right around November 16-20. This second mid-November peak is definitely associated with our peak of chasing. During these decent acorn years, we see a very strong peak in buck-doe chases right in this November 16-20 period. However, what is up with this really strong peak around November 1 followed by a lull until the 16-20 peak?

Below is a graph of the total older buck photo events per day (red line) and legal daylight events per day (black line) for years starting with 2019 that had at least a decent acorn crop (2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023). Notice the very strong double peaks in activity in early and mid-November. We will see a lot of pester chasing around food plots in late October, but true buck-doe estrus chases don't peak until the mid-November peak of activity.

For the life of me, I can't figure out what is going on biologically/behaviorally to produce this very strong early peak (as it is not associated with a peak in estrus chasing). And I seriously doubt it is just an anomaly due to small data set size. This graph's data set includes 45,000 trail-camera events. That's a lot!

Any ideas?
 

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BSK said:
Looking at my trail-cam data for older bucks (2 1/2+ year-olds) over the years, I keep seeing the same odd peaks in activity. Since 2019 (when we started having much more cover on the property, hence bucks did not react as quickly or dramatically to our hunting pressure), in decent acorn years, I keep seeing a "double peak" in buck activity on camera on the exact same days every year. In between these two peaks is a significant lull in activity. The first peak is the last couple of days of October into the first few days of November. The second peak is right around November 16-20. This second mid-November peak is definitely associated with our peak of chasing. During these decent acorn years, we see a very strong peak in buck-doe chases right in this November 16-20 period. However, what is up with this really strong peak around November 1 followed by a lull until the 16-20 peak?

Below is a graph of the total older buck photo events per day (red line) and legal daylight events per day (black line) for years starting with 2019 that had at least a decent acorn crop (2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023). Notice the very strong double peaks in activity in early and mid-November. We will see a lot of pester chasing around food plots in late October, but true buck-doe estrus chases don't peak until the mid-November peak of activity.

For the life of me, I can't figure out what is going on biologically/behaviorally to produce this very strong early peak (as it is not associated with a peak in estrus chasing). And I seriously doubt it is just an anomaly due to small data set size. This graph's data set includes 45,000 trail-camera events. That's a lot!

Any ideas?
Click to expand...
To me data is interesting. This gives me alot to think on in my study. Early activity is what I'm seeing for no special reasoning. All my data is based on 6 trail cameras on 600 acres farm.🤔
 
BSK said:
what is up with this really strong peak around November 1 followed by a lull until the 16-20 peak?
Click to expand...

This is exactly the pattern I've been charting for quite some time and have been using to plan my hunts, with pretty darn good success. I've got a few theories that make sense and with each passing year I believe more & more that it's a convergence of factors rather than one simple answer.

Firstly this is when white oaks begin really dropping heavy, like raining acorns. You need a hard hat to hunt.

Secondly this is when the first does begin popping hot. In fact I chart specific days of heightened older buck activity because it repeats literally to the day year after year in very tight, specific areas. Since I have oak trees dropping literally everywhere, there has to be a reason 5 different mature bucks get caught on one camera in the same day when none were on it in the days leading up to that day or after. But on that day that one camera is lit up with older bucks. The only reason would be a resident doe that pops hot on that day. As long as she's alive and circumstances are relatively normal she will cycle pretty precisely from year to year. And bucks old enough to have experienced it know it. They know where to be and when. Young bucks do not.

Thirdly this is also the time leaves have turned color and begin falling. What was thick cover a week ago is now suddenly wide open. Also a deer's vision is super sensitive to movement and with leaves falling there is movement everywhere. Furthermore they see very well in the blue spectrum so green is vibrant to them but orange & yellow is not. Not only is the movement of leaves falling a lot to take in, the contrast of color in their world is quickly fading from vibrant to dull, likely losing resolution. I imagine it's sensory overload. That is at least partially what I believe accounts for the "lull" between activity spikes because leaf change/fall very closely mirrors the timing.

At least that's how I've come to make sense of it all. I could be completely wrong about the causation but the phenomenon happens predictably regardless and it has been like a cheat code for killing old bucks. As an archery hunter I often capitalize on the first spike. It's literally like having a schedule to know which day to hunt which stand.
 
Odd that it seems the activity increase is almost on a 15 day interval. Could be lunar related maybe? Something is triggering additional daylight movement every 15 days approximately.
 
Ski said:
Secondly this is when the first does begin popping hot. In fact I chart specific days of heightened older buck activity because it repeats literally to the day year after year in very tight, specific areas.
Click to expand...
Here, I believe this may be true. There may be just one old doe that comes in early here, which is the very beginning of November, but we usually have a mature buck hanging around late October early November every year. Some bucks 2.5 and older will remember where they found that early die and maybe return. No doubt cruising activity usually picks up dramatically early November here.
 
Hillbilly Hunter said:
Can you pull the 2.5 and 3.5 yr olds out of it? If you can, did it change the movement?
Click to expand...
When looking at the data for only mature bucks (4 1/2+), the two peaks are still there (around Nov. 1 and Nov. 16-18), but the first peak (around Nov. 1) is much larger than the later peak, and a higher percentage of the camera triggers are in legal daylight in the first peak.
 
backyardtndeer said:
Here, I believe this may be true. There may be just one old doe that comes in early here, which is the very beginning of November, but we usually have a mature buck hanging around late October early November every year. Some bucks 2.5 and older will remember where they found that early die and maybe return. No doubt cruising activity usually picks up dramatically early November here.
Click to expand...
The interesting thing is, when looking at the actual trail-camera videos from that early November peak, it absolutely is cruising. Bucks just "going places," really covering ground. In fact, that is when our daylight videos of mature bucks peak. But then why the big lull before peak breeding in mid-November?
 
Bone_Chaser said:
Odd that it seems the activity increase is almost on a 15 day interval. Could be lunar related maybe? Something is triggering additional daylight movement every 15 days approximately.
Click to expand...
I've noticed that as well. In fact, comparing good acorn years to acorn failures years, that 15 to 16-day pattern between the two peaks still holds true, but the entire process is delayed about 10-14 days.

One thing I am sure of is that first little peak around October 16. That is what used to be called the "false rut." It is a sudden surge of buck activity exactly a month before the real peak of breeding. In the past, it was assumed some does experience a small surge of estrus hormones one cycle before the real estrus cycle, and bucks pick up on this and act accordingly (act rutty). However, now I suspect this mid-October peak involves a few of the oldest matriarch does actually coming into estrus one cycle before all the other does. Rubbing and scraping explodes during this brief timeframe as well. And the most interesting thing about this "false" rut is that it only occurs in good acorn years. I suspect the extra nutrition available during a good acorn year allows those few matriarch does to come into heat early.
 
I saw the same lull here as well. It was like a switch had been flipped. We tried and tried to figure out was was going on or what we were doing wrong. We do not sit all day at our age we pick either morning or afternoon. My hunting partner is 79 and I'm no spring chicken at 66. So our hunts are planned on what we are seeing on camera's. 🦌
 
BSK said:
The interesting thing is, when looking at the actual trail-camera videos from that early November peak, it absolutely is cruising. Bucks just "going places," really covering ground. In fact, that is when our daylight videos of mature bucks peak. But then why the big lull before peak breeding in mid-November?
Click to expand...
Maybe pregame Intel... They cover ground to scope out where they want to be then just play the waiting game.
 
Very interesting data. Thanks for sharing.
I have noticed more mature bucks showing up more often in late October but I've never graphed it like this. Good stuff. Your graph tell me I really need to set aside a few vacation days for the last 3 days of archery season!
 
DoubleRidge said:
Very interesting data. Thanks for sharing.
I have noticed more mature bucks showing up more often in late October but I've never graphed it like this. Good stuff. Your graph tell me I really need to set aside a few vacation days for the last 3 days of archery season!
Click to expand...
I tell you what, what I wouldn't give to have MZ season open November 1!!!
 

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