What could happen if .....

[Scioto]

UGA and Bama are undefeated and Bama wins SEC championship game. ND wins out. Clemson wins ACC championship. Wisky wins out and wins Big Ten championship finishing 13-0. Washington wins out and wins Pac 12 championship finishing 12-1. Big 12 cannibalizes itself and the champion has two losses so is out.

Bama is in and Clemson is in.

ND probably can't be put in the final 4 if UGA is not. So, the final 4 remains what it is today: Bama; Clemson; ND; UGA. Wisky and the Huskies left out.

There's the remotest of nuclear bomb possibilities for the CFP. Not saying it's likely or foreseeable, but definitely (and legally) conceivable. That's why I doubt this would be the final 4 in such a circumstance and Wisky and the Huskies would be in and the Dawgs and Irish play a rematch in a NY 6 bowl.

My recollection might be off, but wasn't there some issue that both the Big Ten and Pac 12 had with joining the CFP agreement?

Food for thought.

 

[Zulu]

Remember, each week's CFP ranking is supposed to be independent, and only indicative of what the rankings would be if the season ended today. Additionally, the committee is supposed to heavily weight both winning the conference championship and winning the conference championship game (which are now one-in-the-same since the BiG-12 was able to add an unneeded rematch game).
Right now, neither Wisky nor Wash are getting much love from the committee, primarily due to their perceived strength-of-schedule (is the BiG-10w really that weak?) However, in your scenario, both Wisky and Wash will have conference championships and championship game wins, which should greatly improve their standings.

So, in that case, the committee would have to chose 4 from the following list:

Bama (or Georgia) -- undefeated SEC champ
Wisconsin --undefeated BiG-10 champ
Clemson (or Miami) -- one loss (or undefeated) ACC champ
Washington -- one loss Pac-12 champ
Oklahoma (or TCU) -- one loss (or even two loss) Big-12 champ
Georgia (or Bama) -- one loss SEC runner-up
Notre Dame -- One loss non-champ

I think that makes things somewhat clearer. SEC winner and Wisky are in. An undefeated Miami is in. SEC runner-up and Notre Dame are almost certainly out. A two loss BiG-12 champ is also out. Right now it looks like the committee is putting the ACC above the Big-12 which is, in turn, above the Pac-12. If (a big if) that remains, I see your scenario playing out as:

1. Bama/Georgia (undefeated)
2. Wisconsin (undefeated)
3. Clemson/Miami
4. Oklahoma/TCU (ONLY if one loss) or Washington (if BiG-12 champ has 2 losses)

also, 2 and 3 would swap if Miami runs the table.

Fun mental exercise, but it's very unlikely to happen. Lots of football still left to be played, including most of the big rivalry games, which tend to be total wildcards every year. Next week's picture will likely look entirely different.

Edit -- sorry, missed you comment about BiG-12 cannibalizing itself, so disregard 1-loss Oklahoma/TCU scenario.

 

[PalsPal]

Unless GA blows out Bama in the SEC Champ game, they will both be in the playoff.

 

[Scioto]

In my scenario, or Zulu's, ND is probably the most vulnerable. Despite their SoS in a win-out situation, and undefeated conf champ Wisky or U probably gets in. That would also allow the committee to exclude a 12-1 loser of the SEC champ game.

We Americans love our undemocratic committees, task forces and boards to make decisions. Two problems with this approach, and the CFP is not immune are (1) groupthink and (2) the group's decisions are often more about addressing or correcting the past. That's why the Joint Chiefs of Staff often fight the last war or the Federal Reserve addresses the last economic recession. I believe the committee's decision to include Ohio State last year had more to do with excluding them in 2015, because the Big 12 was excluded in 2014, than anything else. Any dissenting voice is silenced in Committee decisions because groupthink doesn't tolerate dissenting views. It's in the nature of group decision-making that the CFP will always make decisions looking as much to their past decisions as to subjectively determining the 4 best teams, regardless of what their bylaws say.

And therein lies the inherent nuclear problem that groupthink will always build into its own process. By excluding the Big Ten champion in 2016, the Committee won't this year, assuming that champion is undefeated or has one loss. That probably means ND is excluded, again assuming my scenario plays out. Now remember that the CFP is not a NCAA championship. It is a written legal agreement of the 10 FBS conferences and ND for how they, not the NCAA, will
crown a football champion. Any legal agreement has provisions for withdrawal of the parties to said agreement. It's remote, but still highly conceivable that a jilted ND or Big Ten and PAC 12 could exercise their withdrawal rights under the agreement. I'm sure that triggers a right for ESPN, where the money comes from, to do something that isn't helpful to the continued existence of the CFP.

I prefer a 4 team playoff but this is why the CFP will never have two teams from the same conf and must either expand or die.