Fewer turkeys- debate- over a decade of harvest numbers....

Are numbers truly decreasing, since 2006 the number taken has actually gone UP (at least in 2020), otherwise remained stable...for all the folks here saying turkeys have disappeared what is your debate for this graphic from the TRWA:

There are probably 5x more turkey hunters killing that same number of birds yearly which means the population isn't expanding. If the population were expanding the total harvest would be much higher with that many more hunters.

I've posted this in the past but the concept remains the same; though we may be killing the same average number of birds annually it's a greater percentage of the overall flock. 30k birds out of 300k total is 10%. 30k birds out of 250k total is 12%. 30k birds out of 200k total is 15% and so on and so forth. If the flock isn't replacing what we and natural mortality are removing, doesn't take a statistical genius to know where the flock is headed in the absence of intervention.

Having hunted 8 states I'll offer just one opinion (for the sake of comparison); MO used to be what I'd call an absolutely premier turkey hunting destination. If you look at the numbers below, even though they were still killing 44-48k birds from 2007-17, the overall population was in decline as year after year of poor poult recruitment took hold. In other words hunters were killing a larger and larger % of the available adult toms each spring that were not being replaced. Also saw jake harvest increase as maybe hunters just didn't want to eat a tag(s). In a sense the kill numbers were masking the reality as hunters just kept bangin'away...and then the bottom fell out.

I remember folks in utter disbelief when that 35k total came in for 2018. Unfortunately TN could be in for a few upcoming years of utter disbelief.

2019 – 38,776 (2nd Lowest Harvest in 17 years)
2018 – 35,787 (Lowest Harvest in 16 years)
2017 – 43,356
2016 – 48,374
2015 – 48,432
2014 – 47,601
2013 – 46,141
2012 – 44,766
2011 – 42,220
2010 – 46,194
2009 – 44,713
2008 – 46,134
2007 – 48,472
2006 – 54,712
2005 – 57,743
2004 – 60,744 (Record harvest)
2003 – 58,421

Post the other graphic "poults per hen" over the same era and let's have a discussion about managing for a sustainable resource.

Boll Weevil said:

In a sense the kill numbers were masking the reality as hunters just kept bangin'away...and then the bottom fell out.

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And this is in a state where the turkeys are managed properly for the turkey and not for the dollar. We will see the bottom fall out of the kill numbers in Tennessee. What is amazing to me is that the hunters on here that haven't seen a decline in their little microcosm think everyone else is crazy and will argue to their dying breath because they are terrified that regulations might change and they won't get to hunt as many days or kill their 3 birds.

This is the major concern it's just like my bank account if I spend more money than I bring in it want take long to be in hot water.

Learn from other's mistakes. AGFC (Arkansas) biologists and decision makers relied heavily on harvest data in the late 90s and early 2000s until the bubble popped and they had to make drastic changes, to the point tons of opportunity (length of season and bag limit) have been taken away.

Newt said:

This is the major concern it's just like my bank account if I spend more money than I bring in it want take long to be in hot water.

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Amen! Same analogy I often use. Many households spend more this year than last, but that doesn't mean they have more to spend, and it's not sustainable over time.

Spurhunter said:

And this is in a state where the turkeys are managed properly for the turkey and not for the dollar. We will see the bottom fall out of the kill numbers in Tennessee. What is amazing to me is that the hunters on here that haven't seen a decline in their little microcosm think everyone else is crazy and will argue to their dying breath because they are terrified that regulations might change and they won't get to hunt as many days or kill their 3 birds.

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I'm thinking more than a few are relatively new to Turkey hunting and simply don't have enough experience to understand what they are, or are not, seeing.

Real world example; I'm a newbie in the general sense of western hunting. When I first went out to WY a little over a decade ago to hunt antelope I was floored by the number of animals. Fast forward to today and now I know that what I was seeing was actually a population that was nowhere near its peak. Id move to experience it during the "good Ol days".

Boll Weevil said:

umber of birds annually it's a greater percentage of the overall flock. 30k birds out of 300k total is 10%. 30k birds out of 250k total is 12%. 30k

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Boll Weevil said:

I've posted this in the past but the concept remains the same; though we may be killing the same average number of birds annually it's a greater percentage of the overall flock. 30k birds out of 300k total is 10%. 30k birds out of 250k total is 12%. 30k birds out of 200k total is 15% and so on and so forth. If the flock isn't replacing what we and natural mortality are removing, doesn't take a statistical genius to know where the flock is headed in the absence of intervention.

Having hunted 8 states I'll offer just one opinion (for the sake of comparison); MO used to be what I'd call an absolutely premier turkey hunting destination. If you look at the numbers below, even though they were still killing 44-48k birds from 2007-17, the overall population was in decline as year after year of poor poult recruitment took hold. In other words hunters were killing a larger and larger % of the available adult toms each spring that were not being replaced. Also saw jake harvest increase as maybe hunters just didn't want to eat a tag(s). In a sense the kill numbers were masking the reality as hunters just kept bangin'away...and then the bottom fell out.

I remember folks in utter disbelief when that 35k total came in for 2018. Unfortunately TN could be in for a few upcoming years of utter disbelief.

2019 – 38,776 (2nd Lowest Harvest in 17 years)
2018 – 35,787 (Lowest Harvest in 16 years)
2017 – 43,356
2016 – 48,374
2015 – 48,432
2014 – 47,601
2013 – 46,141
2012 – 44,766
2011 – 42,220
2010 – 46,194
2009 – 44,713
2008 – 46,134
2007 – 48,472
2006 – 54,712
2005 – 57,743
2004 – 60,744 (Record harvest)
2003 – 58,421

Click to expand...

Thanks, where can we find the remainder of the 200s and 1990s data? Wow, so it has gone down by about 40% from 2004!

Andy S. said:

Post the other graphic "poults per hen" over the same era and let's have a discussion about managing for a sustainable resource.

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i did post that graphic, to the other thread!

Speedwell-Hunter said:

Thanks, where can we find the remainder of the 200s and 1990s data? Wow, so it has gone down by about 40% from 2004!

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MO Dept of Conservation generally keeps meticulous records but don't know how far they go back. Google "MDC turkey" and see what you can dig up/how many years they've maintained.

Back in the late 90s/early 2000s there were an estimated +600k birds statewide. Today, there might be half that and that's a huge MIGHT BE. Hunting there is a hollow shell of what it once was.

Speedwell-Hunter said:

i did post that graphic, to the other thread!

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Correct, but posting them side by side would make it easier for others to see the disparity. I read the report/graphs/tables as soon as they were released, so I am keenly aware of what the data suggests. Great discussion by the way, as we need as many hunters/conservationists aware of the challenges that lie ahead.

This may splitting hairs and way more detail than most care about but also consider birds/sq. mi. (or birds/huntable sq. mi.) in the context of not only urban/metropolitan areas but habitat loss. In TN you can basically carve out urban/suburban and some delta farmland, for example. Birds don't roost on skyscrapers in downtown Nashville and you could probably count trees per sq. mi. in some areas of the MS river delta on 1 hand. No roost trees = no turkeys.

When you cut that ground out of the equation it becomes even more startling the decline, in what should be otherwise prime habitat. With the exception of the major metros, the SE is pretty darn rural. Reduce the population by 1/2 or even 1/4 it's not hard to notice the decline. Just like during MOs heyday I also hunted the lowcountry of SC which at the time had a 5 bird limit. AL, GA, even AR had liberal limits and long seasons.

You'd think development and urban sprawl might actually cram turkeys into the remaining habitat and what suitable ground was left would be bustin' at the seams. Not so. All the while killing the same average number of toms/yr.

How many hunters in 2006 vs 2020? Id say those numbers would be be close to double maybe?

Speedwell-Hunter said:

Are numbers truly decreasing, since 2006 the number taken has actually gone UP (at least in 2020), otherwise remained stable...for all the folks here saying turkeys have disappeared what is your debate for this graphic from the TRWA:

View attachment 133237

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Harvest data has proven to be a poor indicator of population. The number of hours and hunters increased dramatically in 2020. People were home with time to hunt. Data is not normalized for this. The bag limit has also increased and the data is not normalized for that change.

Speedwell-Hunter said:

Are numbers truly decreasing, since 2006 the number taken has actually gone UP (at least in 2020), otherwise remained stable...for all the folks here saying turkeys have disappeared what is your debate for this graphic from the TRWA:

View attachment 133237

Click to expand...

Where I live which is Sumner County , the numbers have been noticeably down for three or four years and hopefully has leveled out . I am still getting my birds but there are definitely fewer birds . Wondering if they will back us down to two birds , shortly . I would be okay with that .

If you want a solution to the problem quit looking at harvest numbers. 1 gobbler can service many hens so the issue is improving nesting success and recruitment. Aside from things no game agency can control agricultural practices and weather which impact nesting success and what are you left with? Habitat is generally good most places so that ain't it. Fix the mesopredator problem which is some thing we can control! Snare, trap and shoot the mesopredators! These are critters that no one really takes serious now a days. They need to be removed at a higher rate than they reproduce or you won't see a change. Laziness of the wildlife managers ( hunters) is part of the problem shooting 1 nest predator per year which bears 6 young per year does nothing. You have to look beyond the harvest to the whole ecosystem and balance everything, then the turkeys can do the rest themselves.

That is the number of birds that have been checked out. Take into account with the new check out system probably 25 to 30% or more are never checked out. It looks good on a graph but it doesn't give the real numbers. Have hunted the same farm for 10 years. Population definitely down.

I don't know if yall have seen this on the NWTF page estimated 53,669 that's almost double the next best states...?

Tennessee

https://www.tnwildlife.org
WILD TURKEY POPULATION: N/A
2021 HARVEST DATA: Based on post-season hunter survey, an estimated 53,669 turkeys (47,895 ± 4,837 adult gobblers, 5,153 ± 1,682 jakes, and 621 ± 394 bearded hens) were harvested during the 2021 spring season.
SEASON DATES: Statewide (excluding the MAV Unit* and Giles, Lawrence, Lincoln, and Wayne Counties) Young Sportsman: March 26-27, Shotgun/Archery: April 2 to May 15
MAV Unit* and Giles, Lawrence, Lincoln, and Wayne Counties - Young Sportsman: April 9-10, Shotgun/Archery: April 16 to May 15
*The new Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV) Unit consists of Dyer, Lake, Lauderdale, Shelby and Tipton counties
BAG LIMIT: One bearded turkey per day, not to exceed three per season, except the season limit in the MAV Unit shall not exceed two bearded turkeys, which count toward the statewide season limit
LICENSE COST: Resident (at a minimum, must have): Hunting/Fishing Combo (Type 01) $33, AND AT LEAST ONE Annual Big Game Gun, Archery or Muzzleloader (Type 09, 10, or 11) $33. Nonresident: 7-Day All Game (Type 74) $214, or Annual All Game (Type 73) $305
Note: To hunt on public Wildlife Management Areas, both residents and nonresidents also must purchase a WMA permit (Type 94) for $24, or a Cherokee WMA permit (Type 95, good only on Cherokee WMA), for $18
NEED TO KNOW: All deer and turkey must be reported, prior to moving the harvested animal, on public or private land. In the absence of the ability to report in the field via smart phone, a temporary transportation tag must be affixed to the harvested animal until it is reported online or at a physical check station and a confirmation number is received.


To me the numbers just don't add up. Our harvest data does not correlate with MO data which includes a clear decline in birds.. I checked some of my spots in Maury yesterday and the flocks look good as ever some fields having 10+ strutters in them.. Heard some midday gobbling birds in the usual spots.. Disease is the only reason that some flocks could be wiped out like in neighboring Giles IMO.