• Help Support TNDeer:

Fewer turkeys- debate- over a decade of harvest numbers....

Way too many experienced turkey hunters saying their isn't a problem, new hunters don't have a clue usually about the resource. Many other states showing the same thing, turkey populations are dwindling, but a lot of influencers have a kill 'em all now attitude. Going to be tough to turn this ship around unfortunately.
 
I was quick to blame high limits on the decline. That's just how I keep up with the years. When limits went up population seemed to go down but that does not explain the hen decline. I honestly think where I hunt there are definatelly fewer gobblers but a ton fewer hens. I personally think that a why everyone around is saying gobbling way down. I think most of the hens are already bred by season. Jmo. Jmo.
 
muddyboots said:
I was quick to blame high limits on the decline. That's just how I keep up with the years. When limits went up population seemed to go down but that does not explain the hen decline. I honestly think where I hunt there are definatelly fewer gobblers but a ton fewer hens. I personally think that a why everyone around is saying gobbling way down. I think most of the hens are already bred by season. Jmo. Jmo.
Click to expand...
There are a ton fewer hens on my places.

But gobbling activity is related to three things...

Number of birds (more birds, more gobbling... duh... but its not additive, increase is multiplicative, more birds means more competition for hens, so toms have to gobble more to attract hens to check them out to see if they are the most suitable mate)

Hunting pressure (toms are smart... after a few times of coming to a call, seeing a hunter- the hunter didn't even see the tom... they learn pretty quickly to shut up. Plus as the season progresses, the most vocal toms are naturally removed first)

Timing of receptive hens (gobbling peaks just as the first hens become receptive (they want some more of that!), then peaks again as the last of the hens become receptive. No need to gobble when the majority of hens are receptive, just strut and drum).

Even if your local flock is done breeding before season opens (highly unlikely), gobbling activity should be hitting its 2nd peak at season opener since there has been no pressure. I suspect you are hearing fewer gobbles because there are fewer gobblers to gobble at the start of the season.
 
muddyboots said:
I was quick to blame high limits on the decline. That's just how I keep up with the years. When limits went up population seemed to go down but that does not explain the hen decline. I honestly think where I hunt there are definatelly fewer gobblers but a ton fewer hens. I personally think that a why everyone around is saying gobbling way down. I think most of the hens are already bred by season. Jmo. Jmo.
Click to expand...
Less hens being bred because there are less and less gobblers. Along with more dominant gobblers being killed by garbage tactics like decoys and reaping
 
I'm not a fan of the reaping but decoys have been around for far too long to take too much blame. Sure they've improved from the old homemade ones of mid 90s but they are still decoys (which are allowed for so many other types of hunting).
 
Stlbaseball1 said:
I'm not a fan of the reaping but decoys have been around for far too long to take too much blame. Sure they've improved from the old homemade ones of mid 90s but they are still decoys (which are allowed for so many other types of hunting).
Click to expand...
The strutting decoys have not been around that long unless you are fairly new to this sport, and certainly didn't gain popularity until recently.
Hen decoys, yes but they aren't the issue


don't give a rats arse about other types of hunting. Those are irrelevant to this discussion
 
TNTomtaker01 said:
How many hunters in 2006 vs 2020? Id say those numbers would be be close to double maybe?
Click to expand...
To me this is one of the main questions they need to answer. I think the decline is due to many things combined and not just one, but I do think hunter #'s and more "modern" equipment as well as poult recruitment are a big piece of it.

When I started in 2010, there were birds everywhere and you may not see a hunter all season on public lands, but now it is not unusual to see more than one in a single hunt and that is even at the end of the season. Last year on public I ran into 2 other hunters on the last day of season.

What's worse with all the new equipment folks want to shoot 60-80 yds at a turkey. No telling how many die later after a long shot peppers them. Those don't make the kill totals and just become food for scavengers.
 
Bgoodman30 said:
I don't know if yall have seen this on the NWTF page estimated 53,669 that's almost double the next best states...?

To me the numbers just don't add up. Our harvest data does not correlate with MO data which includes a clear decline in birds.. I checked some of my spots in Maury yesterday and the flocks look good as ever some fields having 10+ strutters in them.. Heard some midday gobbling birds in the usual spots.. Disease is the only reason that some flocks could be wiped out like in neighboring Giles IMO.
Click to expand...
You mean the best turkey county in the state has birds? I'm not trying to give you a hard time, but Maury is the best county followed by Williamson IMO. I saw 3 flocks on my way to work in Williamson county today. One flock had 40-60 birds with multiple strutters. One flock had 10 or so with 4 male birds 2 were strutting, and the other had 8-10 with 2 strutters.

The places that have historically had the most birds still look ok, except Giles like you pointed out. However, Wilson and Rutherford (depending on where you are) have started showing signs of decline. If it can happen there it can happen to any county. It's just a matter of time. Turkey hunting has gotten easier and that has brought a bunch of new people into the sport.
 
I'm not an expert and no data to back this up. I don't see anyone mention habitat loss.
The areas I hunt and the areas I travel through to get there, I see a lot of habitat loss such as new houses, subdivisions and farming practices clearing fence rows and wood lots. These were roosting and nesting areas. Turkeys are nomads. I think some of us are seeing less birds because they move on to other areas .
 
Boll Weevil said:
I've posted this in the past but the concept remains the same; though we may be killing the same average number of birds annually it's a greater percentage of the overall flock. 30k birds out of 300k total is 10%. 30k birds out of 250k total is 12%. 30k birds out of 200k total is 15% and so on and so forth. If the flock isn't replacing what we and natural mortality are removing, doesn't take a statistical genius to know where the flock is headed in the absence of intervention.

Having hunted 8 states I'll offer just one opinion (for the sake of comparison); MO used to be what I'd call an absolutely premier turkey hunting destination. If you look at the numbers below, even though they were still killing 44-48k birds from 2007-17, the overall population was in decline as year after year of poor poult recruitment took hold. In other words hunters were killing a larger and larger % of the available adult toms each spring that were not being replaced. Also saw jake harvest increase as maybe hunters just didn't want to eat a tag(s). In a sense the kill numbers were masking the reality as hunters just kept bangin'away...and then the bottom fell out.

I remember folks in utter disbelief when that 35k total came in for 2018. Unfortunately TN could be in for a few upcoming years of utter disbelief.

2019 – 38,776 (2nd Lowest Harvest in 17 years)
2018 – 35,787 (Lowest Harvest in 16 years)
2017 – 43,356
2016 – 48,374
2015 – 48,432
2014 – 47,601
2013 – 46,141
2012 – 44,766
2011 – 42,220
2010 – 46,194
2009 – 44,713
2008 – 46,134
2007 – 48,472
2006 – 54,712
2005 – 57,743
2004 – 60,744 (Record harvest)
2003 – 58,421
Click to expand...
I hear a lot less birds than even 15 years ago. It was nothing unusual to hear 10 birds or more on a good morning, now I'm lucky if I hear 1 or 2.
 

Latest posts

Back
Top