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Bleak Outlook For These Counties!!

Wrangler95

Wrangler95

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 28, 2002
Messages
27,131
Location
Middle Tn
Very bad sitiuation for these counties!Harvest report as follows!

Anderson-105
Campbell-156
Carter-118
Chester-94
Clay-149
Crockett-61
Dyer-119
Fentress-135
Franklin-138
Grundy-162
Hamblen-156
Hancock-136
Haywood-134
Johnson-140
Lake-43
Lauderdale-97
Lawrence-199
Lewis-168
Loudon-188
Meigs-187
Monroe-172
Morgan-163
Moore-127
Perry-163
Pickett-104
polk-33
Sequatchie-171
Shelby-99
tipton-122
Trosdale-112
unicoi-44
Union-178
Van Buren-160

All these counties are in serious trouble as you can see,all less than 200 harvest and some less than a 100!Many more counties with a little over 200 kills!
 
Wrangler95 said:
Very bad sitiuation for these counties!Harvest report as follows!Anderson-105
Campbell-156
Carter-118
Chester-94
Clay-149
Crockett-61
Dyer-119
Fentress-135
Franklin-138
Grundy-162
Hamblen-156
Hancock-136
Haywood-134
Johnson-140
Lake-43
Lauderdale-97
Lawrence-199
Lewis-168
Loudon-188
Meigs-187
Monroe-172
Morgan-163
Moore-127
Perry-163
Pickett-104
polk-33
Sequatchie-171
Shelby-99
tipton-122
Trosdale-112
unicoi-44
Union-178
Van Buren-160All these counties are in serious trouble as you can see,all less than 200 harvest and some less than a 100!Many more counties with a little over 200 kills!
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You are only looking at one factor, some of these counties may never kill over 200 to begin with on a yearly basis or if they do it may be right around it. If one of these counties were killing 500 on a yearly basis and then dropped off below 200 you might be on to something but one year of harvest data which may be close to the same as in years past doesn't mean a county is in trouble, It would mean they are killing what they normally do in that county.
 
As bleak as things look ongoing, may not be as bleak as many are thinking in the short-term.

Temporary "Luck" with Mother Nature is not a good substitute for better long-term management, but, it does appear there was a better than average hatch in 2021, as evidenced by more jakes statewide during the spring of 2022.

Yes, those jakes were also over-harvested this year, but believe what survived suggests there will be more longbeards next spring than there was this spring . . . . . statewide.

The bigger concern remains why are longer established flocks generally declining in numbers, and how are things going to look in the Spring of 2024. And as has happened many times, will TWRA simply look at next year's better than 2022's "harvest numbers" and say nothing needs to change in the regulations?

Hindsight is usually better, but one can imagine if beginning with the 2020 season, our season had opened a week later and with a 2-bird limit, we would not be talking now about how there are so few longbeards (Toms 2 yrs old or older) in 2022. While we may have more 2-yr-old Toms in 2023 statewide, we may be at a new low for Toms older than 2 yrs.

Back to hoping for good "Luck" this year with Mother Nature.
But we need more than a good hatch.
We need more poults to survive and become over a year old,
and more 2-yr-old Toms surviving to become 3 years old & older.
 
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The two counties I hunt in (Carter and Unicoi) are almost half of what they have been in the past couple years. The properties I hunt seemed to have just as many birds or maybe even more birds then normal but only one person killed a bird on those properties this year. Weather and just life in general kept us from being able to hunt much this year. I do agree that there is something going on with the turkeys but there is a lot of factors that could cause the harvest numbers to be low other than turkeys just not being there.
 
deerfever said:
You are only looking at one factor, some of these counties may never kill over 200 to begin with on a yearly basis or if they do it may be right around it. If one of these counties were killing 500 on a yearly basis and then dropped off below 200 you might be on to something but one year of harvest data which may be close to the same as in years past doesn't mean a county is in trouble, It would mean they are killing what they normally do in that county.
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I know that some of these counties that I listed have always had low kills,I've always known but most of the counties I listed have had much higher population of turkeys and kills much higher than now.My county of Clay has went from over 500 killed in 2010 to 149 now.You need to also look at all the many counties that have a harvest of just over 200 kills.You can argue that everything is alright but most of us know better!
 
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The main and biggest reason for the huge decline in my County is no poults are surviving even if some do hatch they are quickly getting eat by raptors.You wouldn't believe how many hawks and owls they are,probably most counties are just the same.After spring hay is cut,I ride around in the county on back roads all summer long and you hardly ever see any poults with hens.I wish you could trap all year long for racoons,we are over run with them.No one here coon hunts anymore!
 
timberjack86 said:
I just looked at 2020 harvest, Grundy County killed 301 birds that year. I know my cousin who usually tags out says the turkeys have left the property he Hunts.
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For my county of Clay we killed between 500 to 600 around 2010 and 2011 and it has being decreasing each year to a all-time low of 149 this year.My friend and neighbor is a avid hunter who always turkey hunts,it's so bad on his property that he didn't even hunt this spring!
 
Wrangler95 said:
I wish you could trap all year long for racoons,we are over run with them.
Click to expand...

Interestingly, most of the areas I've turkey hunted for decades have fewer coons now than they did decades ago when turkeys were flourishing.

Although you may not be able to trap coons year round, I believe if more of us would begin focusing on trapping them right after deer season for @ 6 weeks, we could really make a difference. That is what I'm doing, and have really enjoyed it.

The unique "dog-proof" traps made specifically for raccoons make it very easy to trap them, without catching a dog.
 
jmf said:
We have farm in dyer and lake county. Both have a allot of birds. Last year the farm in lake county had best hatch I've ever seen. Hopefully a repeat this year. We have seen an increase in turkey numbers rather than a decline.
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That is great,hoping for a good hatch!
 
Wrangler95 said:
I know that some of these counties that I listed have always had low kills,I've always known but most of the counties I listed have had much higher population of turkeys and kills much higher than now.My county of Clay has went from over 500 killed in 2010 to 149 now.You need to also look at all the many counties that have a harvest of just over 200 kills.You can argue that everything is alright but most of us don't have our head in the sand like you!
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Where did I say everything is alright ? I will say this some areas have went down for sure but others areas in our state have actually stayed the same or gotten better with turkey population. No one really knows why and that is why studies are taking place. I can confirm that I see and hear turkeys now in places I didn't 5/10 years ago .We killed 2 this year in a place I wouldn't have even hunted 5 years ago and heard several others. I still realize not all is well in other places and something is wrong as I hunt different counties in the state , none of which I will name on an open forum. You stated that all these counties have bleak outlooks because they killed below 200 turkeys which is absolutely a statement that I disagree with . I pointed out why I disagree with the statement but also said that if they had been killing 500 a year and trended down below 200 over time then you would be on to something. So I agree with you on Clay County. I know two guys that had a lease in Clay, they noticed the same thing as you. Harvest data gives us no clue how many people even hunt in the counties you mentioned or if the turkey population has dropped and unless you hunted them all for several years it's probably hard to make a judgement. The population may have dropped in some or may not but I don't believe you can determine that by 1 year of harvest data in my opinion. Two guys hunting different parts of the same county may argue the point of turkey population as it can be scattered in counties. I may not agree that a kill total of below 200 means a bleak outlook for a county but in no way shape nor form does that mean I have my head in the sand when it comes to turkeys(Thanks for the edit on that statement) Lol. I will do whatever to make sure turkeys are here for my son and everyone on this site to hunt for years to come.It's also okay to disagree on some things, if you believe any county that killed below 200 or around that number has a bleak outlook that is fine with me , no problem at all. I hope Clay county bounces back as I actually called for one of the guys son that I referred to in the post above on a juvenile hunt probably 10 years ago and we heard multiple birds that morning , we chased henned up birds all over that farm!
 
I'm not going to
Wrangler95 said:
Very bad sitiuation for these counties!Harvest report as follows!

Anderson-105
Campbell-156
Carter-118
Chester-94
Clay-149
Crockett-61
Dyer-119
Fentress-135
Franklin-138
Grundy-162
Hamblen-156
Hancock-136
Haywood-134
Johnson-140
Lake-43
Lauderdale-97
Lawrence-199
Lewis-168
Loudon-188
Meigs-187
Monroe-172
Morgan-163
Moore-127
Perry-163
Pickett-104
polk-33
Sequatchie-171
Shelby-99
tipton-122
Trosdale-112
unicoi-44
Union-178
Van Buren-160

All these counties are in serious trouble as you can see,all less than 200 harvest and some less than a 100!Many more counties with a little over 200 kills!
Click to expand...
one cannot judge turkey numbers simply by looking at harvest numbers by county for one season.

Some of those counties have not killed many every year, either due to their size or they just never had many turkeys. They may be stable or may even be increasing in numbers.

Other counties in your list may be in decline, but the very limited data you posted is completely inconclusive.

Lawrence county for example has been down in turkey numbers for years, but I have heard reports of good hatches the past 2 years, and the season opens 2 weeks late as well.

Trousdale county also will always have low harvest numbers because it is a very small county. Look on a map, not just at numbers.

I made up a map a couple years ago of harvest density in birds per square mile, per county. I will not post it here, but it showed me a lot.

Turkey decline is local and turkeys are down in some areas, but stable or increasing in other areas. We need to focus on areas that are actually in decline, not just areas that don't have 500+ birds reported per county.
 
I didn't just look for 1 season,I went all the way back for the past 12 years and if you look back you will see a decline happening for several years!If some of you fail to see the turkey sitiuation we are facing,just do some research!My home county of Clay,just look at each season back to 2010 and you will understand what is happening to the turkey,they are going away just like the quail have.
 

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