Cold fronts do affect deer movement..?

[BSK]

They go even further to refute any correlation between movement and weather in general. Apparently, deer are robots oblivious to their surroundings who, like a trolley car, just follow their tracks day after day, regardless of what's happened. I can't think of an animal in the world that doesn't alter is movement "pattern" based on weather. Watch a cow in a field on a rainy day, or a bird, or any other animal. I think these researchers may have outrun their common sense and outsmarted themselves. As BSK mentioned earlier, it may not be as much about the movement in regard to distance traveled, as much as the where that movement occurs, and I don't see any mention of that. Maybe the question should be does the weather, cold fronts, rain, whatever phenomenon you choose, does it affect movement in areas favored by hunters? Does it take them out of the thickets? Does it take them into the fields? Does it drive them beneath the thick canopy of pines? Does this weather increase the odds that the movement "that was going to occur anyways" creates an increased chance that that animal will be visible to a hunter. And maybe these guys need to do some research on movement patters of hunters so they have a data set for comparison. But my conclusion, is that their thesis that there's no scientific support for "increased movement" is somewhat self-fulfilling when none of the studies seems to be designed to actually answer the real question, which is will a certain type of weather condition increase hunter encounters.

I couldn't agree more lol.

Prime example below. This is a graph of every trail-camera event in November since 2011 involving a buck 2 1/2 years old or older on my place. This data includes about 1,800 camera events. Notice how buck camera events drop off to almost nothing during the Noon to 2 PM timeframe. So, does this data say older bucks don't move at this time? Nope. Why not? The graph is clear! Because of camera placement and study design. I was not trying to decipher the behavior of white-tailed deer. I was trying to pattern older bucks on my property from a hunter's perspective. I was using tried and true scientific processes to learn to be a more efficient hunter. The cameras are placed in locations hunters hunt: scrapes, ridge junctions, saddles in ridges, holes in fences, old roads, and food plots. So what this data shows, and was designed to show, is - as a hunter - when are the best times to hunt? It does that quite well. However, it doesn't say older bucks don't move during mid-day. It shows that older bucks don't move mid-day where hunters normally hunt. Big difference.

 

[Ski]

Maybe the question should be does the weather, cold fronts, rain, whatever phenomenon you choose, does it affect movement in areas favored by hunters? Does it take them out of the thickets? Does it take them into the fields? Does it drive them beneath the thick canopy of pines?

Deer are living creatures so they move every day. They have to. It's the when and where that we hunters have to predict, and we do that by understanding the why.

Case in point, how many hunters have a camera over a food plot and for months on end a buck shows up right after dark like clockwork but then the day the temps drop 10* he shows up 15min before dark? It's uncanny.

Another is sitting open woods near the top of a south facing slope on a frigid mid-morning and catching a buck cruise parallel just under the ridge crest? He may not have traveled that path all year long but that really cold morning he did so he could scent check for does bedding in the sun, and hunters knew to be there for it. Sure he was going to be moving somewhere. Nobody disputes that. But is it in a vulnerable place a hunter can plausibly get a clear shot vs. inside a thick jungle thicket? That's what matters.

A couple weeks ago on last day of November the weather broke as a cold front moved out and it warmed up. It had been frigid for days and was 20* that morning but was in the 40's by 10am and almost 50 by noon. I just knew I had to be out there because deer were going to be moving well. I left my house 2:45 with a 5min drive to property and was back home stringing the buck up by 3:10. I didn't get within 200yds of my stand & saw him tending a doe right under it. Out in the field were a couple dozen other deer including multiple rack bucks. They had been clammed up huddled up during the extreme cold for that time of year and soon as the weather broke they were out in force soaking up the sun. That's exactly why I went that day. So when I read an "expert" author writing an article for a reputable publisher and he cites science to refute what I've learned over a lifetime of hunting, it makes me question all of them.

 

[DeerCamp]

The point of all of this is that the researchers can study whatever they like. But if they are going to claim to have findings that impact hunter activity, then they need to do due diligence on what they are claiming.

 

[Crow Terminator]

Looking at deer movements from a farmer perspective: Deer and goats share similar characteristics and yet are different. I've had goats nearly 15 years now. One thing that is true for both...they are ruminants with 4 chambered stomachs and considered browsers when it comes to eating. Goats have to be fed more during the winter and during extreme cold because they use more energy to stay warm. I'm assuming deer would be similar in that regard...but instead of relying on humans to feed them, they just have to find food to eat more when it gets cold...thus maybe explaining why there's more movement when it gets cold. Deer are more suitable for the cold though so it may throw that line of thinking off.

 

[BSK]

The point of all of this is that the researchers can study whatever they like. But if they are going to claim to have findings that impact hunter activity, then they need to do due diligence on what they are claiming.

Statement of the thread!

If you're going to profess your data is important for hunters, the study needs to be designed around what hunters want to know from their perspective.

That is how I design all of my studies. In fact, I guess you could say I'm a just someone who uses appropriate data collection and analysis techniques to make myself a more knowledgeable, hence successful, hunter. If researchers want to be relevant to the hunting community, they need to set up their studies with that in mind.

 

[beefydeer]

Yes but weather for sure moon maybe affects if it daytime or nighttime way more times then not. Especially for mature deer. There's a reason in the trail cameras forum there's a pile of night time pictures until rut and weather fronts. Cameras will show the same thing if you pat attention to them.

I agree those have some affect. Hunting pressure also drives more nocturnal movement. During the rut just throw out all the rules.

 

[DeerCamp]

It's been overcast and cloudy this week here in Jackson area. Temps have been hovering in the 50s. Pretty blah.

Cold front just moved through yesterday and it's clear, sunny and cold this morning.

Deer out everywhere on the way to take youngest to school today. Cameras have been pretty active this morning.

Coincidence? No.

 

[BSK]

It's been overcast and cloudy this week here in Jackson area. Temps have been hovering in the 50s. Pretty blah.

Cold front just moved through yesterday and it's clear, sunny and cold this morning.

Deer out everywhere on the way to take youngest to school today. Cameras have been pretty active this morning.

Coincidence? No.

OK, now design a research project to either prove or disprove this.

 

[lol]

OK, now design a research project to either prove or disprove this.

I just asked AI:

 

[BSK]

Would love to know what algorithm/data the AI is using to make that proclamation.

 

[lol]

Would love to know what algorithm/data the AI is using to make that proclamation.

I closed it out already but it cited sources at the end.

 

[DeerCamp]

OK, now design a research project to either prove or disprove this.

I am currently running 12 cell cams. I suppose I could pull that data in and analyze it.

 

[DeerCamp]

OK, now design a research project to either prove or disprove this.

I suspect what it would show is some warm days deer move, and some cold days deer don't move, but on average there are more deer sightings on cold days than warm days.

Another trend I have noticed - there is usually a spike in activity when we have a big temperature drop after a warm spell. But about the 3rd day of really cold temps in a row, sightings drop off again. My hypothesis is that they just hunker down until it warms up a bit.

 

[xatxay]

A doe social unit (all females travelling in a group) are genetically related on the female side. They are all grandmother, daughters, grand-daughters, cousins, aunts, etc. The genetic component of their estrus timing will be virtually the same for all of them. This is Nature's way of ensuring maximum genetic diversity (the evolutionary development that makes white-tailed deer so successful in so many different environmental conditions). Because all of the does in a social unit will come into heat about the same time (due to their common female lineage genetics), and each doe will require a buck to follow and tend her for 24-48 hours, this means each doe will most likely be bred by a different buck. The result is all of their offspring will have similar genetics from their mothers, they will all have different fathers, maximizing genetic diversity.

And as you mentioned Ski, different doe social groups will have slightly different genetic timings for estrus. My property is almost a perfect rectangle, one mile north-south by 3/4 mile east-west. Doe social units on the northern half have little if any interaction with does on the southern half. Year after year after year, given similar food resources (basically, an adequate acorn crop), the doe social units on the southern half of the property come into estrus 5-7 days earlier than the doe social units on the northern half. And again, given adequate acorns, I can predict to within +/- 2 days when the "crazy chasing" will occur in the north and the south. It's like clock-work year to year.

Brian, l'm hunting SW Humphrey, not far from you. The main topic was weather effecting movement but on a side track I felt the bleak acorn crop this year seem to change rut behavior & maybe timing. If the rut occurs the same time each year on a given property, mast should have very little impact. Correct?

 

[BSK]

Brian, l'm hunting SW Humphrey, not far from you. The main topic was weather effecting movement but on a side track I felt the bleak acorn crop this year seem to change rut behavior & maybe timing. If the rut occurs the same time each year on a given property, mast should have very little impact. Correct?

No. Genetics sets the stage. Individual animal health pulls the trigger (within reason). Good animal health allows for estrus at the "right" (genetic) time. Poor health can delay estrus timing. Animals in poorer health will enter estrus later than they normally would. This is even true with humans. Women in extremely poor health will stop ovulating entirely. I can predict two unique sets of estrus timing for my property: one for an adequate acorn crop, and the other for an acorn failure. In years with a total acorn failure, estrus will be delayed 7-10 days. In addition, we will see a much strong 2nd rut in an acorn failure year compared to a good acorn year.

In 2022, with a total acorn failure, estrus was delayed about 10 days on my place. This year, with just a few viable acorns produced that were quickly gobbled up, estrus was delayed about 7 days.

 

[paboom]

@BSK Thanks for sharing that graph. I too am a bit of a data nerd and my data looks almost identical to yours which is fascinating. Mine is from the state of Virginia, 2+ year olds and 8 years worth of data.

 

[BSK]

@BSK Thanks for sharing that graph. I too am a bit of a data nerd and my data looks almost identical to yours which is fascinating. Mine is from the state of Virginia, 2+ year olds and 8 years worth of data.

VERY cool data paboom! What has me fascinated is the big surge of sightings during the 8 AM hour. I see this as well, but almost exclusively during good acorn years. I suspect it's because of deer feeding on acorns along the ridge-lines as they work towards their bedding areas. In a poor acorn year, no acorns to eat, hence the deer get back to their bedding areas much sooner.

 

[paboom]

VERY cool data paboom! What has me fascinated is the big surge of sightings during the 8 AM hour. I see this as well, but almost exclusively during good acorn years. I suspect it's because of deer feeding on acorns along the ridge-lines as they work towards their bedding areas. In a poor acorn year, no acorns to eat, hence the deer get back to their bedding areas much sooner.

That's certainly a plausible theory. The 8am hour does seem to play out for us, but I can't pinpoint the exact reason.

One that ISN'T supported by the data is that 63% of the mature deer I've killed in that area (>=4 yr olds) were killed between 11:30 and 12:30. If you look at the data, that doesn't make any sense.

Basically, after all these years of analyzing it, I've come to 2 simple conclusions:
1- Deer are crazy
2- If you have the opportunity to hunt, get in the stand.

 

[Ski]

One that ISN'T supported by the data is that 63% of the mature deer I've killed in that area (>=4 yr olds) were killed between 11:30 and 12:30. If you look at the data, that doesn't make any sense.

By 10am doe groups have largely bedded and settled down for the day, and by 3pm-4pm will be on their feet again. A rutting buck's best opportunity to scent check an entire group of does in a single pass is to cruise downwind or upthermal of a bedded group. Best time to do that is between 10am and 3pm. This cruising doesn't involve scraping or food sources and often doesn't happen on trails. It's one big reason I don't even enter the woods until after daylight and don't hunt over food sources, especially after the initial round of breeding has occurred.

 

[BSK]

By 10am doe groups have largely bedded and settled down for the day, and by 3pm-4pm will be on their feet again. A rutting buck's best opportunity to scent check an entire group of does in a single pass is to cruise downwind or upthermal of a bedded group. Best time to do that is between 10am and 3pm. This cruising doesn't involve scraping or food sources and often doesn't happen on trails. It's one big reason I don't even enter the woods until after daylight and don't hunt over food sources, especially after the initial round of breeding has occurred.

Here's my 14 years of data for mature buck (4 1/2+) trail-camera events from October through December. Notice the lack of trail-camera events mid-day. Why? Because my cameras are placed in typical hunting locations. Doesn't mean mature bucks don't move then. Just means they don't move through typical hunting locations then.