More data, might not be valid.
We have sheep that get bred in November. Put the ram in Saturday before MZ. He checked out all the girls (12) and bred one immediately. Next morning he was pestering a different doe. That afternoon he was back with the first girl.
Over the next 2 weeks he paid attention to 8-9 of the girls that we could track. So by best estimate, 3-4 girls were not "in" during the first 2 weeks.
Those open ewes will likely get serviced as they come in during the next 2-3 weeks. ( based on historical data) One or two will need as many as 3 breeding cycles to "take".
Historically, the mid-older ewes with the best body condition get bred first. The younger ewes seem to take a week or so to cycle after the ram is put in.
Then the late ewes are a crapshoot. One or two old ones, one or two young first timers, toss in a middle aged one every year or two with no measurable pattern. Those late oddballs drive us nuts at lambing season as they typically surprise us when they drop unexpectedly as we are about to give up on them being fat instead of pregnant. These oddballs also may breed on schedule 3 years in a row, then randomly be a late breeder. So being off calendar can be a one off event.
I am guessing that the does have a similar pattern. Healthiest peak fertility does are ready first, followed by the bulk of the does. Then you have the oddballs. Older declining does that cycle a little late, younger does that cycle a little off peak. Then for the most part the rut is over...... Except there is the odd doe that goes into estrus randomly outside peak dates.
A month later, the second rut happens when the unbred does from the first cycle, kick off again +more late cyclers including young does that have just matured. Then the trickle happens as the rest of the oddballs randomly come into estrus. Old does, Does with health issues, young late maturing fawns, yearlings that are off calendar.......
Does this theory sound feasible?
