BSK
Well-Known Member
I've posted these ideas and some of this data before, but after finally 'wrapping up" my 2024 data, I think the information is even more clear.
My property is primarily ridge-and-hollow hardwoods. We have recently diversified the property quite a bit, but for fall hunting season food sources for deer, acorns are still king. Not only are they a huge draw to pull deer into our property, but acorns are also the primary high-value, high-nutrition food source that carries the local deer through the winter. When we have even a moderate acorn crop, deer have plenty of high-value food to load on the fat before the rut and before winter. However, in the few years where we have an acorn failure due to a late spring freeze, or a summer/fall drought, we can end up with no acorns at all and deer are forced to subsist on much lower-quality browse and limited food plot forage to leading into the rut.
Over the years, looking at trail-camera data, it became clear that the local deer had developed a clear-cut pattern of peak movement and breeding around the rut. In fact, I could predict almost to the day when peak buck movement and chasing would occur. Yet in an acorn failure year, like we had in 2022, I thought I noticed a distinct change in the timing of these patterns. With 2024 also producing a drought-driven acorn failure, I had the opportunity to see if what I saw in 2022 was a single-year anomaly, or a pattern that would occur each time we had an acorn failure. Turns out it is a pattern that is predictable.
Below is a graph displaying older buck (2 1/2+ year-olds) events caught on trail-camera during the fall months, separated by decent acorn years and acorn failure years caused by drought. The data only goes back to 2019 because that is when I started monitoring my local herd with trail-camera videos instead of still images. The data from the two types can be markedly different, so I wanted to stick with just video data. In addition, 2019 was the year we started to dramatically alter our habitat. I've seen on various projects just how different the deer patterns can be when major habitat changes occur, so all of this data involves a primarily hardwood habitat that is suddenly greatly diversified through timber removal.
In the below graph, the orange line represents the daily number of older buck events caught on trail-camera during years with a decent acorn crop, which were 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023. The green line is the daily buck event data for the two years of drought induced acorn failures (2022, 2024). When comparing these two data sets, notice how much later in the season buck activity peaks. In acorn years, buck activity peaks around November 17. This is also the peak date of buck-doe chases caught on camera (much easier to identify when using video instead of still images). However, in the acorn failure years, buck activity doesn't peak until right around November 30, again also the date of peak chasing activity for those years.
It has been noted in several Southeastern studies of acorn-driven deer herds (local deer populations that rely almost exclusively on acorns as their primary fall food source) that poor acorn years reduce deer health, which results in delayed breeding. This appears to be the case on my property. Peak chasing and over-all older buck activity was, on average, 13 days later on the calendar in the acorn failure years than in the adequate acorn years.
For those who hunt primarily hardwoods properties, this is something to think about. In a very poor acorn year, deer health may be reduced, hence produce a delay in peak activity that is 10 days to 2 weeks later than normal. And although this information is primarily geared to those hunting acorn-driven deer herds, I would strongly suspect that any event that produces a sudden loss of quality late summer and fall food sources in your area - such as a drought, a crop failure in agricultural areas, a sudden change of habitat that removes quality food sources, etc. - I would expect to see some sort of delay in peak buck activity and potentially even breeding.
Also notice how much more older buck activity there is in October in adequate acorn years compared to acorn failure years. This is when acorns are normally pouring out of the trees and bucks are vacuuming them up and making lots of rubs. In the acorn failure years, there was very little older buck activity in October, and rubbing was exceptionally muted in those years. In 2022 - a big acorn failure year - I found a grand total of 5 rubs on my 500 acres. In a good acorn year, rub densities can exceed 600 rubs per square mile on this property.
My property is primarily ridge-and-hollow hardwoods. We have recently diversified the property quite a bit, but for fall hunting season food sources for deer, acorns are still king. Not only are they a huge draw to pull deer into our property, but acorns are also the primary high-value, high-nutrition food source that carries the local deer through the winter. When we have even a moderate acorn crop, deer have plenty of high-value food to load on the fat before the rut and before winter. However, in the few years where we have an acorn failure due to a late spring freeze, or a summer/fall drought, we can end up with no acorns at all and deer are forced to subsist on much lower-quality browse and limited food plot forage to leading into the rut.
Over the years, looking at trail-camera data, it became clear that the local deer had developed a clear-cut pattern of peak movement and breeding around the rut. In fact, I could predict almost to the day when peak buck movement and chasing would occur. Yet in an acorn failure year, like we had in 2022, I thought I noticed a distinct change in the timing of these patterns. With 2024 also producing a drought-driven acorn failure, I had the opportunity to see if what I saw in 2022 was a single-year anomaly, or a pattern that would occur each time we had an acorn failure. Turns out it is a pattern that is predictable.
Below is a graph displaying older buck (2 1/2+ year-olds) events caught on trail-camera during the fall months, separated by decent acorn years and acorn failure years caused by drought. The data only goes back to 2019 because that is when I started monitoring my local herd with trail-camera videos instead of still images. The data from the two types can be markedly different, so I wanted to stick with just video data. In addition, 2019 was the year we started to dramatically alter our habitat. I've seen on various projects just how different the deer patterns can be when major habitat changes occur, so all of this data involves a primarily hardwood habitat that is suddenly greatly diversified through timber removal.
In the below graph, the orange line represents the daily number of older buck events caught on trail-camera during years with a decent acorn crop, which were 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023. The green line is the daily buck event data for the two years of drought induced acorn failures (2022, 2024). When comparing these two data sets, notice how much later in the season buck activity peaks. In acorn years, buck activity peaks around November 17. This is also the peak date of buck-doe chases caught on camera (much easier to identify when using video instead of still images). However, in the acorn failure years, buck activity doesn't peak until right around November 30, again also the date of peak chasing activity for those years.
It has been noted in several Southeastern studies of acorn-driven deer herds (local deer populations that rely almost exclusively on acorns as their primary fall food source) that poor acorn years reduce deer health, which results in delayed breeding. This appears to be the case on my property. Peak chasing and over-all older buck activity was, on average, 13 days later on the calendar in the acorn failure years than in the adequate acorn years.
For those who hunt primarily hardwoods properties, this is something to think about. In a very poor acorn year, deer health may be reduced, hence produce a delay in peak activity that is 10 days to 2 weeks later than normal. And although this information is primarily geared to those hunting acorn-driven deer herds, I would strongly suspect that any event that produces a sudden loss of quality late summer and fall food sources in your area - such as a drought, a crop failure in agricultural areas, a sudden change of habitat that removes quality food sources, etc. - I would expect to see some sort of delay in peak buck activity and potentially even breeding.
Also notice how much more older buck activity there is in October in adequate acorn years compared to acorn failure years. This is when acorns are normally pouring out of the trees and bucks are vacuuming them up and making lots of rubs. In the acorn failure years, there was very little older buck activity in October, and rubbing was exceptionally muted in those years. In 2022 - a big acorn failure year - I found a grand total of 5 rubs on my 500 acres. In a good acorn year, rub densities can exceed 600 rubs per square mile on this property.
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