More meaningless data (but a question)

[Andy S.]

How does your data coincide with the broader area's deer density (annually)?
Just wondering if the area deer density might be a more significant factor than those straight line winds.

I have no answers, just pondering questions

Was wondering same thing with NWR doing away with "earn a buck" during this time period.

 

[Andy S.]

Has the doe population on the refuge near you changed much?

My first thought too.

 

[Andy S.]

What you're seeing is possibly more about the combination of factors, rather than any one thing?

This will always be my belief with deer and turkey. As humans, we oftentimes oversimplify things and try our best to find a way to take credit for something (single factor) we believe, when in fact, the change we are seeing is multifactorial. Many times, we do not fully understand every variable influencing the outcome.

 

[BSK]

This will always be my belief with deer and turkey. As humans, we oftentimes oversimplify things and try our best to find a way to take credit for something (single factor) we believe, when in fact, the change we are seeing is multifactorial. Many times, we do not fully understand every variable influencing the outcome.

I completely agree with this. However, being a data-head human, I keep trying to understand how each factor plays a role. Probably an unanswerable question, but I keep trying!

 

[BSK]

I also agree with all those who pointed out the end of the Earn-A-Buck program. That hadn't crossed my mind but has to be a big factor. I haven't finished analyzing all of this year's data, but our doe numbers are going to be big compared to the Earn-A-Buck years. During the peak of those years, I would come up with only 15 or so adult does on my place (and 30 antlered bucks). The last couple of years since Earn-A-Buck ended, more like 60 does and 45 bucks.

So we've got a vastly increased deer population on adjoining lands, plus vastly improved habitat on our land, and that changes things!

 

[Ski]

I completely agree with this. However, being a data-head human, I keep trying to understand how each factor plays a role. Probably an unanswerable question, but I keep trying!

Same here. I'm intrigued with the "why". Any random spike in activity can be spurred by any random circumstance, but the major spikes that repeat annually at the same time are relating to something repeatable, not random. And since it's consistent it can be found & figured out.

The major spike that occurs during the breeding phase of the rut is an easy one. We know deer are busy getting busy, and fawn birthing times consistently confirm it. Mid October spikes aren't as easy to narrow down. It's not breeding. So what else is going in the deer woods at that time? Trees are going dormant, acorns starting to fall, forbs & weeds turn woody and die, crops being harvested, cover getting thinner, does with their fawns grouping back up, and bucks with testosterone surging are dispersing into fall ranges. There are a lot of things going on simultaneously that could trigger the social response we see as a spike in buck activity. All could certainly contribute but one thing has to be the catalyst and in order for the spike in activity to happen same time every year, the catalyst also has to happen same time every year.

I doubt it's does, although they for sure are a factor. It can't be acorns because that fluctuates year to year. It can't be crop harvest because that too fluctuates. What we're left with is plant dormancy and buck testosterone surges, which both occur according to photoperiod. Those are the two things that happen same time every year like clockwork. So which is the culprit?

 

[BSK]

Excellent post Ski. I would love to figure out that October peak.

And let me reiterate just how locked in our rut is. VERY predictable and on about the same days every year. Below is a graph of the average number of buck-doe chases on camera per day for the last 11 years. Notice how sharply defined our rut is and how we see very specific dates of peak chasing over the years. And just for reference, that November 17 peak is when we see the big boys chasing. The earlier peak, around Nov. 4, usually involve yearling and 2 1/2 year-old bucks. But the big boys are chasing Nov 16-21. The below video is from this year, the 17th. Wish I had been in the condo that morning!

 

[AlabamaSwamper]

I haven't ever figured it out. No rhyme or reason really. I'm talking about late morning, mid afternoon, early evening not the typical daylight and dusk movement.

Even this year with the largest acorn crop in history it happened. Most cameras on plots for easy access. Even with plots usage really low this year.

I will say, it seems to mirror when scrapes really start opening up including the bigger rubs showing up on field edges. Maybe something to do with daylight at that moment bumping their testosterone maybe?

 

[BSK]

I haven't ever figured it out. No rhyme or reason really. I'm talking about late morning, mid afternoon, early evening not the typical daylight and dusk movement.

Even this year with the largest acorn crop in history it happened. Most cameras on plots for easy access. Even with plots usage really low this year.

I will say, it seems to mirror when scrapes really start opening up including the bigger rubs showing up on field edges. Maybe something to do with daylight at that moment bumping their testosterone maybe?

Interesting idea AlabamaSwampster. I keep records on the location and date of every scrape I find. I'll check to see if there was a surge in plot-edge scrapes around that date.