Need sincere advice on CWD management.

[gatodoc]

The one positive case was in far northwestern KY. The elk are all in far eastern KY, so many miles away. However, elk outfitters & guides are begging the KDFWR to try to contain CWD, if possible, or at least slow it down. I'd like to help them, if I can.

They might slow it down some but they won't stop it…Natural resistance will be the answer eventually…

 

[fairchaser]

Alright, I did the math using exponential regression for Mature Bucks on the graph on the previous page.

You can't really estimate back to "0" because it doesnt have a natural logarithm, but we can estimate back to below 1%.

Based solely on the current growth rates known, I estimate that the time period of introduction of CWD in Tennessee was 2001-2003.

As you can see, this function also estimates a near 100% "infection" rate by 2032 in the region the data was from.

It also estimates the prevalence will be >50% in 2028.

View attachment 216308

That looks reasonable to me. I didn't join the club until 2010 and the deer population was booming. But 2-3% would have only been 20-30 animals and would have largely gone unnoticed and would have had no effect on the population. Our rate is approximately 50% now so it could have started even earlier. Thanks for doing this analysis.,

 

[fairchaser]

You obviously have never hunted out west where 100 deer are feeding in one alfalfa field.

Or you see upwards of 1000 in a 7 mile stretch of road in the early spring.

Anecdotal and not representative of the state or states. I've hunted in Iowa for 15 years and their deer density is much lower than ours.

 

[big 8s in Weakley county]

I dont think the kill all of the deer is the answer. If you have tested 40,000 and only found one the odds are good it hasn't spread yet. But how do you know which deer is the right one to shoot and which isn't infected? If anything open up more opportunities to kids. People can say they can kill a doe all they want but when a kid can only kill one buck and have the possibility of killing it and being done for the season on bucks in October I think that just makes them not want to go back. Not saying kids don't enjoy shooting does just depressing knowing that there season can be over in one hunt.

 

[TheLBLman]

But how do you know which deer is the right one to shoot and which isn't infected?

You don't.
Which is why wholesale slaughtering deer in CWD areas may not be such a good idea, as many or most of the deer being slaughtered ("because of CWD) don't have CWD, and may be ones resistant to getting it.

CWD makes a stronger case for biologically sound deer management (don't let the herd be over-populated). Kentucky has been and is already managing in this manner.

I don't see the case for mass eradication of deer because they might get or spread CWD.

 

[Ski]

The one positive case was in far northwestern KY. The elk are all in far eastern KY, so many miles away. However, elk outfitters & guides are begging the KDFWR to try to contain CWD, if possible, or at least slow it down. I'd like to help them, if I can.

Has anyone considered the spread may be creeping downward from MO, IL, or IN? Any idea if those states are doing much testing?

 

[mike243]

In the world we live in now I would almost bet every state is cking around all the boarders and near any game farms. If not they need to imo.

 

[rem270]

I dont think the kill all of the deer is the answer. If you have tested 40,000 and only found one the odds are good it hasn't spread yet. But how do you know which deer is the right one to shoot and which isn't infected? If anything open up more opportunities to kids. People can say they can kill a doe all they want but when a kid can only kill one buck and have the possibility of killing it and being done for the season on bucks in October I think that just makes them not want to go back. Not saying kids don't enjoy shooting does just depressing knowing that there season can be over in one hunt.

Speaking of the kids, I've always said the juvi hunt would be much better moved to the first weekend in Nov. The 2nd weekend in Oct is always so hit or miss with the weather that it has made for some pretty bad hunts for kids if temps end up being in the 70's or 80's. Some years weather is great (like this past year) but some years we're hunting in t shirts and movement is slow. Just moving to the first weekend in Nov I believe there would be an uptick of more deer killed (would help with what they might push for) and pre rut would be kicked in for more action.

 

[BigAl]

That looks reasonable to me. I didn't join the club until 2010 and the deer population was booming. But 2-3% would have only been 20-30 animals and would have largely gone unnoticed and would have had no effect on the population. Our rate is approximately 50% now so it could have started even earlier. Thanks for doing this analysis.,

Didn't TN do testing for some years prior to the round of recent testing/outbreak? And found nothing?

 

[mike243]

The only folks with any hard data is TWRA, all of us end users can only say what we see and word of mouth, they have the numbers but it's early in the game, Hardly anybody has seen a deer with it and a lot of folks think it's a witch hunt, we can advocate to cut down all the trees in the hopes that thickets will spring up and miraculously raise the population up so the dying deer won't be missed, most of this is in a high population zone anyway so how much higher numbers can be had before you see browse lines everywhere or all of the farmers have to get kill permits? there are no easy solutions in the state of Tn,

 

[fairchaser]

Didn't TN do testing for some years prior to the round of recent testing/outbreak? And found nothing?

They have done sporadic testing over the years but with only a few animal's potentially positive, the odds are fairly low of them finding the first case. Testing has stepped up quite a bit since they discovered it was here.

 

[JJ3]

Didn't TN do testing for some years prior to the round of recent testing/outbreak? And found nothing?

From the management plan, p.3, TN began testing for CWD in 2002:
"In 2016 and 2017, sample sizes for CWD testing increased by more than 590% (2,014 and 1,799 samples in 2016 and 2017, respectively). In 2018, TWRA implemented an enhanced surveillance strategy (Schuler et al. 2018), which is designed to both assess the risk of CWD introduction into Tennessee, and implement a weighted sampling strategy that integrates deer population and key risk factors. The overall goal of this surveillance approach is to maximize the chances of early detection of CWD. By 2018, a total of 12,282 free-ranging white-tailed deer and 109 free-ranging elk had been tested for the disease."

 

[JJ3]

We're there any numbers shown or just percentage? If I test 100 bucks, 50 does and 20 fawns those percentages can be misleading. In these percentages, is it of specimens tested i.e 4.1% of fawns tested came back positive, or 4.1% of all deer tested were positive fawns?

I believe those percentages are of the positives of the number tested (that is how TWRA calculates prevalence rates). In past years a the Tennessee Wildlife Commission meetings sometime in the spring, TWRA has presented a report that shows how many deer tested and how many were positive in each of the CWD zone counties. If I remember right about 60% (+/- 10% — I'm going on memory) of deer harvested are tested. So I'm 2023/4 season, about 3000 deer were killed in Fayette County which means about 1800 were probably tested.

 

[JJ3]

Alright, I did the math using exponential regression for Mature Bucks on the graph on the previous page.

You can't really estimate back to "0" because it doesnt have a natural logarithm, but we can estimate back to below 1%.

Based solely on the current growth rates known, I estimate that the time period of introduction of CWD in Tennessee was 2001-2003.

Thanks for doing this! I've wondered why similar analysis hasn't been published but I'm sure has been performed. I think it looks reasonable.

 

[DeerCamp]

Thanks for doing this! I've wondered why similar analysis hasn't been published but I'm sure has been performed. I think it looks reasonable.

I didn't have a lot of data to work with, so this could be a little off.

Either way, the bad news is that the hotspots are going to get exponentially worse in the coming years. Literally.

 

[Popcorn]

There are several more members here many would love to see respond to the OP. Guys your opinions do matter and may well help form policy…

Hey
@BSK
@RUGER
@megalomaniac
@BMan
@scn
@Bgoodman30
@Chaneylake
@Kimber45
@Bambi Buster
and the rest of you guys, without having to look you guys up, let us see your thoughts on this

 

[ROB]

You don't.
Which is why wholesale slaughtering deer in CWD areas may not be such a good idea, as many or most of the deer being slaughtered ("because of CWD) don't have CWD, and may be ones resistant to getting it.

CWD makes a stronger case for biologically sound deer management (don't let the herd be over-populated). Kentucky has been and is already managing in this manner.

I don't see the case for mass eradication of deer because they might get or spread CWD.

Has anyone considered the spread may be creeping downward from MO, IL, or IN? Any idea if those states are doing much testing?

We certainly have considered that possibility. The KDFWR CWD plan was triggered 3 years ago, when we had our first positive case within 20 miles of the KY state border, a 3 1/2 y/o doe found in Cottage Grove, TN, in Henry County, not terribly far from my home. (I hunt in Henry County every year & have hunted in Cottage Grove before.) Then, 2-3 months later, a healthy acting 2 1/2 y/o buck from Weakley Co, just south east of Dresden, tested positive. So, 5 Kentucky counties became part of the CWD Surveillance Zone, all along the southern border of far western KY, probably 50 miles from where the buck tested positive in Ballard County, KY. However, Ballard County is right on the Mississippi River , across from Missouri, which has CWD. And, the river has been quite low for the past 2 years. So, I think it is likely that the CWD positive buck found in Ballard simply waded/swam the river. KDFWR is doing genetic tests on samples from the buck to see if those will tell.

 

[mike243]

So if you have a fire do you add more wood or reduce the fuel to put the fire out?

 

[Popcorn]

So if you have a fire do you add more wood or reduce the fuel to put the fire out?

I see where you're going.
To me you manage the fuel and let the fire run its course. This is the way of nature.
Too many times man's interference has only served to make matters far worse than they would have been otherwise

 

[CBU93]

That looks reasonable to me. I didn't join the club until 2010 and the deer population was booming. But 2-3% would have only been 20-30 animals and would have largely gone unnoticed and would have had no effect on the population. Our rate is approximately 50% now so it could have started even earlier. Thanks for doing this analysis.,

Talk about math…according to past TN deer disussions, you have to kill 33% of a deer herd to keep it stable. So if positivity rate overall is higher than that, your herd will shrink eventually due to not being able to populate fast enough.

Once CWD gets there like it is in certain areas, you WILL see negative impacts to your over all numbers and hunting experience. We saw an unscientific decline for several years before announcement of CWD. Those were just the years it was brewing. Statewide, you may not see a dramatic change in numbers, but you will see localized impacts. In a southern a deer herd (any number of different variables from herd density, buck to doe ratio, age structure, habitat, different sub species of whitetail) there will a lot to be learned over time. I think Headhunter mentioned extinction…we are barely a blink in the CWD timeline right now so extinction speak is a bit premature. Time will tell.