I think that clear cuts are good for turkeys in a way, but also bad. Takes away roost and mast trees, but also opens up areas for them to strut and get bugs under the rotting bark and such. A fresh clear cut is about the same as a pasture. A few years after it creates good nesting habitat, but you really can't hunt in there.
The best are clear cuts that still borders big timber, but my favorite is thinned and select cuts, just rotating through several years of what they do. Huge expanses of clear cuts are no better, or worse, than huge expanses of mature timber. Turkeys need a variety of habitats. Nesting cover/brood rearing cover in spring and summer, and hardwoods with good mast in the fall and winter.
I do not think the cancellation of fall season will have much of an impact, but, as spur hunter noted, that's a lot of hens that could have raised broods, with more hens that could have raised, and so on and so on. I enjoy fall turkey hunting myself, but I go for mature gobblers only and I try to scatter a flock and call them back up, not ambush or bushwhack them. Hens bearded or not should be off limits.
I'm also of the thought that jakes should be only killed by youth 16 and under, but I don't know about that. I don't think enough jakes are killed to have an impact, because where I'm from, jakes don't really gobble or anything, and are sometimes the hardest to kill because they don't "play."
The high spring limits could have some help by being lowered because so many people turkey hunt now, and people are so "successful" in killing turkeys now with realistic decoys, fanning, and the way shells, chokes, and guns are no days. A limit of four was probably good when we first went to it, but back then decoys and htl weren't very popular, along with social media and everybody wanting to prove kills with kill pics.
The chicken litter issue doesn't have much weight to me, unless proven otherwise. Properly heat treated litter cannot spread disease. And also, the areas of the country where I believe the most turkeys live, is South Georgia, south Alabama, and. South Mississippi, which are the leaders in the chicken industry, and also Arkansas but I'm not sure of their turkey populations.
Predators and varmints have been around since turkeys have been around, but I do believe that they are bad on them, and I think that there are more predators and nest raiders around. Armidillos are still new to my areas, well new as in ten years, which matches up with decline, as well as wild hogs which have been around 10-12 years.
If you own land, you can help by creating better habitat and maybe trapping. Also by managing your harvest. But weather, what the twra does, and what your neighbors do is completely out of anyone's control.
I firmly believe though that it's all about nesting and brooding success, and if we can ever have a good couple years in a row of good batches, we will see a rebound.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk