It seems that many on here agree that nesting/brooding is the issue- and I don't disagree. The harvest flattened off about the same time that our poults in the brood surveys bottomed out around 2 poults/hen. The question is then... What can be done? What should the state do?
1. Shorten the season
Shortening the season may well result in more hens being bred. But these days must come off the front end of the season- there isn't really a biological justification to take days from the end of the season. We would still see the same "rush" of harvest during the first 2 weeks of the season, but harvest would be delayed until mid April and hopefully the hens would all have been bred by then. How does this effect nesting success?
2. Reduce the bag limit
Reducing the bag limit may well reduce the number of birds an individual kills, but how many of them would turn around and take another hunter who is less skilled or experienced? This may well recruit new blood into the sport, but we may or may not reduce the # of birds taken (see TN vs KY thread). Turkeys range shift constantly, so unless you are on a very large tract, the birds you saved may not return to the property. I see this as a quality of hunt issue- i like hearing lots of gobbling birds and having a tough time deciding which one to chase too, and I have a spot that I quit hunting this year because it dried up and only held one bird who consistently pitched across property lines. I also have a rule that I won't take more than 1 bird off any farm I hunt a year, regardless of how many I am hearing.
3. Reduce/eliminate the fall season/hen killing
I can get behind this, and I think it might help some, but I don't think this will fix all the woes. I don't fall hunt either though, so I will readily give up this opportunity. I really think our turkeys are in a down cycle and will come back. I also didnt see a ton of "extra" hens. I think the most I ran into during the season was 4 with a single gobbler, and usually just 1 or a gobbler by himself.
4. Outlaw decoys
I don't hunt with them, but once again, this is a quality of hunt issue, not a brood issue. I didn't see a disproportionate gobbler to hen ratio, so it's hard for me to say that gobblers are being overharvested relative to the hens in the flock.
5. Outlaw Jake shooting
Once again, I see this is a quality of hunt issue. Also, % jakes in the harvest can be an important indicator to biologists that recruitment is less than desirable, so % jake harvest is a good canary in the coal mine.
6. Remove season/bag limit restrictions on nest predators
This is one I came up with on my own- I figure being able to legally trap and hunt raccoons and opossums during the nesting and brooding period wouldn't hurt turkey recruitment, but someone has to be willing to do it. Nest predators don't just get eggs- raccoons love to eat turkey just as much as we do, and are a pretty significant summer predator on hens and poults. And they are super abundant now too.
7. Provide the means to improve the habitat for turkey nesting and brooding
This one is really easy to overlook since it's going on largely after we've left the woods, but it is incredibly important to sustaining and growing a turkey flock. Big open woods are fun to hunt, but hard to hide a nest or brood in. Burning, proper use of herbicides, and forest management are your tools here. If you've got some odd spots that will grow a decent clover patch, that's great too, but you need to give your flock good habitat across your property from ridgetop to holler, and clover patches are very expensive to maintain at the scale needed to impact the turkey flock.
8. Restrict the spreading of chicken litter as fertilizer
It's got to go somewhere- anyone else got any good ideas? Also, this would fall outside of TWRA's juridiction, and would likely be a TN Dept of Ag or TN Dept of Environment and Conservation issue. This would probably require a change in state law- Ag is a powerful lobby, and it doesn't give a rip when wildlife starts costing farmers money.
9. Relocate birds to areas with lower populations
I think this is a little irresponsible at this time. We don't know for sure what is causing turkey flocks to decline locally, so why would you want to expose perfectly healthy birds in a stable population to disease/predators/ poor habitat etc that have caused the resident flock to crash or relocate?
Basically, the way i see it, the onus is on us, the hunters and land managers to improve our habitat, be responsible with our harvest, and, if need be, control our predator populations until the flock recovers.