Variability of older buck sightings, mornings versus evenings

[westtntoms]

A person is not allowed to hunt our property unless they fully participate in the data collection process. Most would think that's no big deal, until they see the process! Every time a hunter climbs into a stand, they are going to need to record the date, stand, exact time they sat down, the exact time they climbed down, the exact time each deer was first seen, whether that deer was legal for harvest, whether that deer could have been harvested, even if they are not. Each deer seen must be identified as an antlered buck, an adult or fawn antlerless deer, an antlerless deer of unknown age, or a Unid (Unidentifiable). Bucks must be field-aged, antler points recorded, and identified against a list of known bucks from that year's photo census. Wind direction and speed are recorded as are cloud coverage. High and low temperature for that day are recorded. Moon illumination and phase is later attached to each hunt. For harvested deer, the weapon used, number of shots taken, and distance of killing shot recorded. All deer are live weighed (before field dressing), jawbone age checked, doe lactation recorded, and for bucks, basal circumference of antlers, beam length, inside and outside spread and gross score recorded.

How do they record this data? Do you have a graph or something they just type info in on phone? Some of this I could memorize, but certainly not all!

 

[1 good shot]

Well if I am in a stand with a gun, they are nowhere to be seen. I am out walking the dog or going to the grocery store, they are everywhere

 

[megalomaniac]

This year, morning hunts. Last year, evening hunts.

I have this data from when we first acquired the property (1987), but a major change occurred starting in 2001, when we began placing a large amount of hunting pressure on the property, which has continued to the current year. So the below data is what I call the "Modern Era" data only - from the time hunting pressure increased dramatically (2001 until the present):

Clearly this year is an anomaly with numbers skewed astronomically in favor of mornings versus evenings... but why? Must be something with the timber harvest or the new shoot houses. Figure out what caused the shift in activity, write a book, and make millions!

 

[AlabamaSwamper]

I would look at weather and moon phase as a combination.

That is the biggest factor I've seen. Especially temps for evening hunts.

 

[Dumbluck]

If I was to guess I would say it had to do with weather, more specifically wind patterns. I notice unsteady or swirling winds more than anything. There are some seasons where the wind seems to be restless in the mornings and more steady in the evenings or vise versa.

Wind is about the only thing that will cause me to terminate a hunt early or not hunt at all. It's also a hunters worst enemy or best friend. If they are hunting swirling winds the deer are going to smell them before they ever see them on many occasions.

I remember about 2 seasons ago the wind was so bad almost every morning I couldn't hunt. I even had a big target deer show back up one morning. I knew where he was bedded from the camera he triggered and tried to go after him. No matter how bad I wanted to kill him, I actually backed out and left him alone that day. He did it again about a week later and I tried again, I had the same results. I had to just leave him before he smelled me. I ended up getting lucky and he did it a 3rd time, this time I waited until late afternoon when the wind settled and went in and killed him right before dark.

Maybe this is your culprit?

 

[Willysman]

Very interesting study. But I don't think you will ever know the answer. Deer do what deer want to do when they want to do it.

 

[FTP]

After working with teenagers for 25 plus years in education, I quit wondering why they do the things they do. Same goes for deer hunting, they are wild animals whose behaviors at best, are remotely predictable. I've learned to just have my butt in the woods as often as possible.

 

[bjohnson]

I've noticed on 2 of the farms I hunt that morning activity increases in years that corn was planted vs the years that were beans. Evening activity is roughly the same with both plantings.

 

[BSK]

Clearly this year is an anomaly with numbers skewed astronomically in favor of mornings versus evenings... but why? Must be something with the timber harvest or the new shoot houses. Figure out what caused the shift in activity, write a book, and make millions!

It was truly unusual. In November, 21 older buck sightings by hunters, all but one in the morning. That's pretty darn lopsided! But in 2018, 8 morning sightings, 1 evening. 2008, 13 morning sightings, 0 evening. So it has happened before.

 

[BSK]

How do they record this data? Do you have a graph or something they just type info in on phone? Some of this I could memorize, but certainly not all!

If I knew how to create an App, I would do so. Currently, most hunters just keep track of everything on their phone, in the "Notes" App. I collect all the data after each hunt and enter it into an old database system I wrote years and years ago (so old, it's in dBase III).

But all of that data collection does provide the opportunity to display "progress" graphically, in a manner anyone can see and understand. One of my favorite graphs to show the hunters is the one below, displaying "where we came from" so many years ago. This is a graph of the percent of observed bucks that are older (2 1/2+). When we first started, in the late '80s, we had years where NONE of the bucks seen during the entire season were 2 1/2+. Now, 35 years later, 50+% of bucks seen are older bucks. The season isn't over, so I haven't entered this year's data, but so far 58% of bucks observed by hunters were 2 1/2+. That's a big difference, and the slow steady improvement can best be seen in the 3-year running mean line on the graph.

 

[BSK]

If I was to guess I would say it had to do with weather, more specifically wind patterns. I notice unsteady or swirling winds more than anything. There are some seasons where the wind seems to be restless in the mornings and more steady in the evenings or vise versa.

Wind is about the only thing that will cause me to terminate a hunt early or not hunt at all. It's also a hunters worst enemy or best friend. If they are hunting swirling winds the deer are going to smell them before they ever see them on many occasions.

I remember about 2 seasons ago the wind was so bad almost every morning I couldn't hunt. I even had a big target deer show back up one morning. I knew where he was bedded from the camera he triggered and tried to go after him. No matter how bad I wanted to kill him, I actually backed out and left him alone that day. He did it again about a week later and I tried again, I had the same results. I had to just leave him before he smelled me. I ended up getting lucky and he did it a 3rd time, this time I waited until late afternoon when the wind settled and went in and killed him right before dark.

Maybe this is your culprit?

I tell you what, I don't ever remember so many clear sky, cool temperature days with no wind. We had nearly calm winds the first 5 days of MZ season. I don't ever remember having that many calm wind days in a row before.

 

[rodeojoe]

Moon phase

 

[JCDEERMAN]

I tell you what, I don't ever remember so many clear sky, cool temperature days with no wind. We had nearly calm winds the first 5 days of MZ season. I don't ever remember having that many calm wind days in a row before.

The weather for hunting during prime time for western middle TN, first 2 weeks of November, was better this year than I recall in many years. Deer were everywhere. Couldn't ask for it to be any better. Again, I suspect weather is a major contributing factor - wind, rain, temperature, barometric pressure....all of the above

 

[Andy S.]

But all of that data collection does provide the opportunity to display "progress" graphically, in a manner anyone can see and understand. One of my favorite graphs to show the hunters is the one below, displaying "where we came from" so many years ago. This is a graph of the percent of observed bucks that are older (2 1/2+). When we first started, in the late '80s, we had years where NONE of the bucks seen during the entire season were 2 1/2+. Now, 35 years later, 50+% of bucks seen are older bucks. The season isn't over, so I haven't entered this year's data, but so far 58% of bucks observed by hunters were 2 1/2+. That's a big difference, and the slow steady improvement can best be seen in the 3-year running mean line on the graph.

Good stuff for sure. For truly measuring "progress", I would like to see this data for a neighboring 500 acre property that has not been managed for deer or habitat, to get an idea of just how much 2.5+ buck sightings have increased outside of habitat management and QDM management. In other words, a baseline of sorts, or the "placebo" data/effect if you will. For example, my grandma's 25 acre farm is light years better than it was in the early 90s, but it has not been managed at all, and neither have the farms around it. The State as a whole has improved dramatically over the last 30 years, when looking at opportunity for 2.5+ bucks.

 

[chart1300]

Moon phase seems to make more difference than any other factor as far as I can tell except weather. Weather trumps all!! Catch a big swing in pressure and deer activity goes WAY UP !! The best activity for me is always as pressure gets HIGH.

 

[westtntoms]

If I knew how to create an App, I would do so. Currently, most hunters just keep track of everything on their phone, in the "Notes" App. I collect all the data after each hunt and enter it into an old database system I wrote years and years ago (so old, it's in dBase III).

But all of that data collection does provide the opportunity to display "progress" graphically, in a manner anyone can see and understand. One of my favorite graphs to show the hunters is the one below, displaying "where we came from" so many years ago. This is a graph of the percent of observed bucks that are older (2 1/2+). When we first started, in the late '80s, we had years where NONE of the bucks seen during the entire season were 2 1/2+. Now, 35 years later, 50+% of bucks seen are older bucks. The season isn't over, so I haven't entered this year's data, but so far 58% of bucks observed by hunters were 2 1/2+. That's a big difference, and the slow steady improvement can best be seen in the 3-year running mean line on the graph.

Indisputable facts produced by a quality management program!

 

[westtntoms]

If I knew how to create an App, I would do so. Currently, most hunters just keep track of everything on their phone, in the "Notes" App. I collect all the data after each hunt and enter it into an old database system I wrote years and years ago (so old, it's in dBase III).

But all of that data collection does provide the opportunity to display "progress" graphically, in a manner anyone can see and understand. One of my favorite graphs to show the hunters is the one below, displaying "where we came from" so many years ago. This is a graph of the percent of observed bucks that are older (2 1/2+). When we first started, in the late '80s, we had years where NONE of the bucks seen during the entire season were 2 1/2+. Now, 35 years later, 50+% of bucks seen are older bucks. The season isn't over, so I haven't entered this year's data, but so far 58% of bucks observed by hunters were 2 1/2+. That's a big difference, and the slow steady improvement can best be seen in the 3-year running mean line on the graph.

If you have a one drive account thru Microsoft, you can save a spreadsheet online and share it with different people

 

[UTGrad]

Weather

 

[Wiz]

You are correct that morning hunts are generally longer than evening hunts, which could involve more unproductive time, skewing the rates. However, some years, like this year, the vast majority of older buck sightings were late in the morning, from 8:00 onwards. I haven't run my "buck sightings by hour of the day" analysis yet, but this year it will be BIG for the 8 and 9 AM hours.

I've kept pretty detailed records for my hunting over most of the past 20 years including weather, wind, location, and times. The trend I noticed is if I stay in my morning stand past 1030 my chances of seeing a mature buck greatly increase. I have seen and harvested several before 0900 and one or two after 1600 but the vast majority of 3.5 year old+ bucks have been between 1115 and 1330 and the most bucks seen are generally form 1000 until 1400.

Several of the GPS collaring studies that universities are doing are also showing that these times tend to be a major movement period for deer as well with a few researchers suggesting that you are better off to stay in bed until 0800 and then go out when everyone else is heading to the house/camp.

 

[tree_ghost]

I tell you what, I don't ever remember so many clear sky, cool temperature days with no wind. We had nearly calm winds the first 5 days of MZ season. I don't ever remember having that many calm wind days in a row before.

I think that has a lot to do with it. Weather from mid October through mid November this year was exceptional! Cool temps with steady winds…