What am I seeing in the data?

Your not the first person to notice that. I would like to understand that myself. Good question. 🦌
That article referenced goes into detail about that. It started with a genetic difference from when deer were moved here and the climate difference has not required that to change. In other words fawning can occur later without negative effects. That's what I gleaned anyway.
 
Nearly every mature buck that I was tracking this year daylighted on October 31 or November 1. Most were on a scrapes, but in one instance, I believe the doe actually came into heat based on the change in travel patterns (the doe was a regular afternoon visitor) and the amount of mature bucks that showed up at a water source in daylight nearby. There had to have been chasing for the multiple bucks to be at the water. The deer remember it, know it from hormonal changes, are biologically programmed to do that, maybe a combination of all of the above. Are there deeper reasons? Possibly. I don't know and not sure if it matters for me. I like to hunt mature bucks and these couple days it is somewhat predictable for them make a mistake. Either way there is a trigger associated with the rut for them to expose themselves in daylight with or without a doe on these couple of days.

The first hot doe I can actually confirm in person this year was on November 6th. I had a huge buck frantically searching in daylight on November 5th and hit 2 different cameras. I hunted on the 6th and had him and the doe bedded down the ridge from me about 150 yards. 4 additional 2/3 year old bucks circling like vultures.

P.S. I had trail camera pics this year of 2 different does being chased by multiple bucks in January. The last one being January 26th. I'd say that's somewhat unusual but we had a massive mast crop this year and might be connected to the availability of food and thus the health of the deer.
 
P.S. I had trail camera pics this year of 2 different does being chased by multiple bucks in January. The last one being January 26th. I'd say that's somewhat unusual but we had a massive mast crop this year and might be connected to the availability of food and thus the health of the deer.
A genetic component to estrus timing certainly exists in each doe. In the Southeast, environmental conditions can alter that timing somewhat, but each individual still has a basic date for estrus set in her DNA. At one time, I had a very distinguishable doe on my property (entire bridge of her nose was jet black) that when I started my summer baited census (I usually started August 1 with cameras over salt licks) would always still be VERY pregnant. For four years in a row, I picked her up heavily pregnant in August. She would drop her fawn in late August. No matter the environmental conditions, she just had mid-January estrus timing locked into her system, even though the rest of the does in the area had a mid-November estrus timing.
 

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