Guys, you all are only scratching the surface... Think bigger, outside the box...
Simple question- 'why are the turkeys declining in TN?'... Simple answer- terrible hatch last year, terrible hatch 2 years ago. And yes, won't matter what the hatch is this year, next year will be worse than this year (unless you want to tag out on jakes).
Now for the thinking outside the box...
Simple question- 'why was the hatch terrible?'
In order to answer that, you have to look at what goes into a successful hatch... Males available to breed females, males successfully fertilizing females, females comfortable enough (lack of stress) to initiate nests, females undisturbed for 28 days while setting. Then after the hatch, weather appropriate for poult survival, mothering skills of the hen and relative lack of predators killing the poults (hawks, raccoons, coyotes, crows, etc). Growing turkeys don't have a problem getting fed, their diet is so varied they could survive on pine straw I almost believe- so food is never an issue.
The problem is, everyone assumes a poor hatch was due to predators... if we just got rid of all the nest raiders, the world would be perfect again. Or it's the weather's fault- and we can't control the weather. And don't get me wrong, those are HUGE factors in poult recruitment. But when you start to think outside the box, you begin to realize the other factors that compound the problem....
The ongoing study in TN is reavealing that nearly 1/3 hens don't bother initiating a nest... If that ends up being the final number, and if that number doesn't give you pause, there isn't any point in me continuing my discussion with you. But think deeper... WHY didn't those hens initiate a nest? About the only thing I know of in poultry that interrupts egg laying during the spring is poor nutrition and stress. Again, nutrition isn't an issue. But stress IS. An anxious flighty wild bird that is being disturbed by coyotes in March, then hunters nonstop during mid April when nests are initiated MAY significantly impact her desire to nest/ brood.
And another gripe about people not thinking outside the box regarding nest raiders... what many fail to understand is that after a hen starts setting, if the poults don't start developing inside the egg by around day 7-9, she will abandon the nest. Just because you find a bunch of broken up eggs, that does NOT mean she would have successfully hatched the following month. Many matings by toms are actually unsuccessful at fertilizing the hens, it's pretty easy to miss the mark when your pecker is only 2-3 mm in size. If the hen is going to lay that spring, she will lay the eggs whether they are fertile or not. During incubation, she will kick out the infertile eggs from the nest if others are developing. Thinking outside the box lets you realize that nest failures are probably not primarily caused by predation, although they are responsible for a large percentage of nest failures and even worse, loss of the hen herself while setting.
We also have to change our thinking regarding loss of adult birds. The initial studies done when turkeys were being reintroduced showed that virtually NO gobblers were ever killed by predators, and that virtually NO hens were killed by predators except during nesting. This is now going out the window. All the recent studies are pointing to an incredible loss of adult birds by coyotes who have adapted and learned how to aggressively and effectively kill adults. As a consequence, the old school thinking of 2.2 poults per hen in August is necessary for a stable population is also going out the window... it's probably going to take around 3 poults per hen just to maintain a stable population not counting hunting loss. Think about that... we've been around 1.5 PPH the past 2 years...
In summary, all this rambling is to make a case for maximizing nesting success... sure, removing nest predators is important, but it's probably just as important to ensure males are available throughout the season to fertilize hens, especially in the first half of active breeding season (which is the last week of March through the end of the second week of April on my farms). It may be even more important to allow hens to initiate nests undisturbed by hunting pressure and human intrusion. While I'm all in favor of reducing the gobbler limit, I know that it will NOT result in any improvement in poult recruitment UNLESS other season structure changes happen as well. I would STRONGY enourage each of you to recommend delaying season opening by 2 weeks to your commissioners. That may be the single best simple change TWRA could implement to improve nesting success.
