And sometimes "common sense" - which is usually what we call our brain's desire for an easy answer - is wrong.
Well, when the turkeys are dying off faster than they're being replaced with new off-spring,
it just seems "common sense" we should be killing fewer of them annually,
as we seek more data as to all the causes?
One of the problems is not a lack of data, so much as it may be a lack of common sense in interpreting the available data.
And, too much emphasis has been placed on statewide (as well as county-wide) harvest data, which has somewhat camouflaged declining longer-established flocks in some counties (and parts of counties) as "new" flocks have expanded into areas previously more void. And, those interpreting the data seem to lack understanding regarding the progressively increasing killing abilities of the "average" turkey hunter.
When I started turkey hunting, it took me several years of effort to kill my first one. Today, novice hunters watch some you-tube videos, pick up a fan, and go kill a limit of turkeys.
Yes, I'm exaggerating a bit, but not about my early days of ineffectiveness. Today's hunters have much more effective weapons, loads, and tactics than a few decades ago. Where I killed my first turkey back in the 1980's had more turkeys then than now, despite now having better nesting habitat, and still being thousands of contiguous acres of great turkey habitat.
I'm all for more data.
But while we're waiting to get it,
how about applying some pressure to the bleeding,
maybe slow it down a bit?
IMO, absolutely nothing could be simpler and more effective than delaying our season opening a week, while at the same time causing the least heartburn to TN's resident avid turkey hunters. And not for one second do I think our TWRA turkey biologist(s) haven't known this for years. But whatever their thoughts may or may not be, they're being trumped by the politics of non-resident revenue coming from a TN turkey season opening earlier than most other states.