2024 Rut prediction

[Rakkin6]

Read in a couple places like Field and Stream and Mossy Oak that are predicting a bifurcated rut this year one in late October and another towards thanksgiving. I couldn't find anything specific to Tennessee. What are your alls thoughts on date ranges. Trying to plan for some time off of work.

Right now I was thinking either from the 8th thru the 18th or 15th thru the 25th of November for time off work.

 

[th88]

I think those articles are click bait.

 

[knightrider]

It will be like it has been every year for the last bazillion years within a 5 day window no matter the weather or what ever they try to go by. When November hits be in the woods till it closes!

 

[Rakkin6]

It will be like it has been every year for the last bazillion years within a 5 day window no matter the weather or what ever they try to go by. When November hits be in the woods till it closes!

That's kind of my thought process also.

I think those articles are click bait.

You are probably correct. Just more or less asking everyone's thoughts. I think I am going to go with the 8th thru the 18th and catch them before they start locking down. That's a pretty decent window and I only work part time so I still have a lot of time.

 

[DoubleRidge]

That's kind of my thought process also.

You are probably correct. Just more or less asking everyone's thoughts. I think I am going to go with the 8th thru the 18th and catch them before they start locking down. That's a pretty decent window and I only work part time so I still have a lot of time.

For northern middle TN and the dates you are choosing between, I would agree with you and choose Nov 8th thru 18th....no doubt.

 

[Mr.Bro]

Mid October showed me more activity, visually, on video and pics.
At least the last two years.

 

[hammer33]

On my farm, lots of Mid/late October activity, particularly young bucks. Then it falls off around Halloween for about a week then picks up again around the first weekend of November.
Good movement and rutty activity around MZ up through Thanksgiving then it drops off sharply. Slowly gets back to "normal" patterns through December with a spike of rutty activity around Dec 18-25. This is when I usually see a big range shifting buck on camera. Then its back to the doe parade through the end of season.

 

[Hduke86]

First two weeks of November here in Hamilton County are always my go-to dates. Regardless of the weather I will be out there as much as possible.

 

[DeerMan66]

I hunt hard from Nov 10th to the 24th in middle TN. That seems to be the time when I see the most rutting action.

 

[Rackseeker]

I think TN is the hardest to predict rut dates out of all the other states. You can literally hunt the rut from the first week of November all the way thru the first of January and never leave the state. As far as where I hunt it is usually the 2nd or 3rd week of December.

 

[BSK]

Actual breeding occurs on about the exact same dates for any given location each year. Whenever it peaked on a given property in past years is most likely the dates it will peak this year, acorns or no acorns. The one thing I have seen significantly alter peak breeding dates is a severe summer and fall drought. I suspect the fact the deer are in poor shape after a severe drought which can delay breeding by up to 10 days. I've seen it on my place twice: during the severe drought (and massive EHD outbreak) of 2007, and the severe drought of 2022.

Now when peak breeding actually occurs and whether it occurs during daylight when hunters can see it, are two different things. Often, I've seen weather patterns (especially extreme heat for that time of year) hide breeding by shifting it to the nighttime hours.

I've worked on several large-scale projects where daylight rutting activity was being tracked by hunters and conception date data was also being collected later in the year (back-dating fetuses). I've seen situations where the hunters would say peak breeding was shifting around year to year by as much as two weeks, while the conception date data indicated breeding was on exactly the same dates each year. Who was right? They both were. Peak breeding DID occur on the same dates each year, but that part of breeding that occurred during daylight - when hunters could see it - DID also shift around due to changes in weather conditions.

 

[preachermantom]

It was crazy last year…I killed a good buck on New Year's Day chasing a doe. Grunting as he was in pursuit!

 

[Bass1090]

Actual breeding occurs on about the exact same dates for any given location each year. Whenever it peaked on a given property in past years is most likely the dates it will peak this year, acorns or no acorns. The one thing I have seen significantly alter peak breeding dates is a severe summer and fall drought. I suspect the fact the deer are in poor shape after a severe drought which can delay breeding by up to 10 days. I've seen it on my place twice: during the severe drought (and massive EHD outbreak) of 2007, and the severe drought of 2022.

Questions for you please @BSK

After the drought years that impacted the peak breeding, did that become the "new" dates the next year or did it go back to the previous years dates? If it changed the peak dates that may explain how some regions in the state have different peak dates??

 

[backyardtndeer]

I believe the first couple weeks of November here will be the best time to be in the woods like it always is here. Unfortunate that cwd seasons changed back.

 

[Ski]

I tend to see rut activity not so much like a singular event or time frame, but rather waves that come all season long, peaking in intensity around Thanksgiving. One of my better TN bucks was killed October 10th as he was hounding a doe, grunting every step like a snorting pig. While that's not typical activity for that time of year, it's not uncommon. On the same coin I have sat many a November days and hardly seen a deer, let alone a rutting buck. Again not typical but not abnormal.

In my experience you'll see rutting activity when you're hunting close proximity to an estrus doe. It's just that simple. If you're not around an estrus doe then you're not likely to see a rut crazed buck acting a fool. Find when most fawns drop in your area, count back 201 days, and that's when peak breeding occurs. But each side of that peak are still plenty other does cycling that will have bucks acting like fools if you're in the woods to see it.

 

[BSK]

Questions for you please @BSK

After the drought years that impacted the peak breeding, did that become the "new" dates the next year or did it go back to the previous years dates? If it changed the peak dates that may explain how some regions in the state have different peak dates??

Went back to the previous "normal" pattern the year following the drought.