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CFP question
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Zulu
Well-Known Member
OHVATN":1s5vwz1k said:
You ask a legitimate question, so I'll try to give you a cogent answer. First, it appears to me that you have a misunderstanding of strength-of-schedule (SoS); it has nothing to do with a team's win/loss record, it is simply at attempt to quantify how difficult a team's schedule was. It's theoretically possible that a team could go 0-12 and still be number 1 in the SoS category if they scheduled a bunch of great teams and lost to them all. 3-9 Ga Tech with a 15 SoS is a good example this year.
What SoS does is allow you to compare teams with similar records when there is no head-to-head game to differentiate. Your theoretical top-4 from last year is meaningless since none of those teams had similar records. However, if you look at what actually happened: After all of the conference championship games were played, the committee was looking at roughly six teams that were "in contention:" FSU (13-0, 31 SoS), Alabama (12-1, 2 SoS), Oregon (12-1, 12 SoS), Ohio State (12-1, 26 SoS), TCU (11-1, 10 SoS), and Baylor (11-1, 13 SoS). We all know who the actual final 4 were. As far as the actual rankings go, it appears that the committee viewed that both Alabama's and Oregon's SoS trumped FSU's one extra win. So the end result was Alabama, Oregon, FSU and Ohio State. Was it a perfect ranking? Absolutely not, but it DOES look like the committee got the four best (or at least best deserving) teams into the playoffs and let them settle it on the field.
Does that make any sense?
Vermin93
Well-Known Member
More data for SOS discussion...
Quality wins of AP Top 10 teams (based on today's AP poll):
1. Cemson: #9 ND, #10 FSU
2. Alabama: #23 LSU, #25 Wisconsin
3. Oklahoma: #11 TCU, #12 Baylor, #14 Oklahoma State
4. Iowa: #13 Northwestern, #25 Wisconsin
5. Michigan State: #6 Ohio State, #15 Oregon, #19 Michigan
6. Ohio State: #19 Michigan
7. Stanford: #9 Notre Dame, #15 Oregon, #24 USC
8. North Carolina: None
9. Notre Dame: #20 Temple, #22 Navy, #24 USC
10. FSU: #18 Florida
Quality wins of AP Top 10 teams (based on today's AP poll):
1. Cemson: #9 ND, #10 FSU
2. Alabama: #23 LSU, #25 Wisconsin
3. Oklahoma: #11 TCU, #12 Baylor, #14 Oklahoma State
4. Iowa: #13 Northwestern, #25 Wisconsin
5. Michigan State: #6 Ohio State, #15 Oregon, #19 Michigan
6. Ohio State: #19 Michigan
7. Stanford: #9 Notre Dame, #15 Oregon, #24 USC
8. North Carolina: None
9. Notre Dame: #20 Temple, #22 Navy, #24 USC
10. FSU: #18 Florida
Vermin93
Well-Known Member
I see that you're running from the quality win data, cur, because your favorite team Bammer is not as impressive in that metric.
Vermin93
Well-Known Member
I never said SOS wasn't all games. I'm addressing the "who has your team beaten?" crowd. Now you know.
My personal hope is that the Bammers are largely untested by top competition and that they will be exposed in round one like last year. I think it would be awesome if Stoops was able to whip the Dark Lord twice in a row.
My personal hope is that the Bammers are largely untested by top competition and that they will be exposed in round one like last year. I think it would be awesome if Stoops was able to whip the Dark Lord twice in a row.
Zulu":zoyuksbr said:
Thanks Zulu. That is a cogent explanation and one that I understand (and I also understand how the "Committee" uses SoS). I appreciate you taking the time to contribute and add to the discussion. I just think SoS is a flawed metric that compares apples and oranges, but I'm not a statistician or a quant so what do I know.
Ohio State blew it by losing to the wrong team. Alabama and Oklahoma didn't blow it since they didn't lose to the wrong team. Ohio State will not be in the CFP because they won't be a conference champion. But, let's stop the nonsense of SEC and particularly Alabama fans using SoS to separate their favorite team from others. Ohio State was not the better team on the field versus Michigan State this year, just as Ohio State was the better team on the field against Alabama last year, and SoS had nothing to do with either outcome. It's a shame that the best team in the B1G won't be in the CFP, but they didn't take care of business this year.
Zulu
Well-Known Member
OHVATN":5m0fwruk said:
I realize that SoS is far from perfect, but how would you propose differentiating between two 12-1 teams who never play each other?
I think that a combination of "official" SoS (opponents' records multiplied by their opponents' records) and what some people call Quality Wins (I prefer Marquee Wins -- think it sounds cooler) can give a pretty good picture of teams with similar records.
That being said, Oklahoma is very strong in both Marquee Wins and SoS.
Alabama is very strong in SoS and fairly weak in Marquee Wins.
The Big 10 Champ will be fairly (MSU) or very (Iowa) weak in SoS and strong (MSU) or fairly strong (Iowa) in Marquee Wins.
So, that being said and again assuming that both Clemson and Bama win, I think the final four may very well be:
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Alabama
4. Big 10 champ
with a good possibility of 3 and 4 swapping places and even a chance of Oklahoma taking #1 if Clemson looks bad but still wins against UNC.
Using the same criteria, Ohio State is fairly weak in both SoS and Marquee wins, but I can see them squeaking into 4th if either Clemson or Alabama stumbles.
Vermin93
Well-Known Member
Zulu":3rwqan79 said:
I think OU jumping an undefeated Clemson would be nuts, but then again much of the college football world seems to have forgotten about OU's ugly loss to a terrible 4-7 Texas team, so maybe it shouldn't come as a surprise if it happens.
Zulu
Well-Known Member
Sorry double post.
Zulu
Well-Known Member
Vermin93":3mtnqzdj said:
I said there's a chance, not a GOOD chance
oke: [youtube]KX5jNnDMfxA[/youtube]
[emoji23]Vermin93":1spk3gru said:
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BamaProud
Well-Known Member
A strong case can be made that Alabama should be #1 instead of Clemson.
Clemson struggled to win 34-25 win over South Carolina. Alabama beat Auburn solidly for its ninth straight win.
Here are Clemson's last three games:
— A 37-27 win over 3-6 Syracuse Nov. 14, a game the Tigers led by just seven midway through the fourth quarter.
— A 33-13 win over 3-7 Wake Forest Nov. 21.
— The game against South Carolina.
Alabama has a loss. Clemson doesn't. But the Tigers have just two wins over ranked teams. The Tide has five, including three against top-10 teams.
Clemson struggled to win 34-25 win over South Carolina. Alabama beat Auburn solidly for its ninth straight win.
Here are Clemson's last three games:
— A 37-27 win over 3-6 Syracuse Nov. 14, a game the Tigers led by just seven midway through the fourth quarter.
— A 33-13 win over 3-7 Wake Forest Nov. 21.
— The game against South Carolina.
Alabama has a loss. Clemson doesn't. But the Tigers have just two wins over ranked teams. The Tide has five, including three against top-10 teams.
Vermin93
Well-Known Member
BamaProud":1lyruubj said:
Lol, it does not surprise me to see a Bammer referencing the opponent's ranking at the time of the game as opposed to their current ranking. Pretending that your wins over Georgia, Texas A&M and LSU are against Top 10 teams... now that's funny! Only one of them is even ranked anymore. :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:
This helps explain why Bammers claim bogus national championships. :lol:
When asked who they have beaten, the fact is that Bammers must say their best wins are against #23 LSU and #25 Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Clemson has beaten #9 Notre Dame and #10 Florida State, both of which would have no problem beating any teams on the Bammer schedule. :tu:
