I'm a little surprised by hgb1's sudden silence.
It's not my data. It's the TWRA's data, collected every year since the early 1980s.
Broken down by 5-year averages, our statewide poult recruitment since 1995 is below. The "pretty boy" decoys that started the strutter decoy fad came out in 2005.
Year Range
| Poults per Hen
(5-year average) | Poults per Brood
(5-year average) |
1995-1999 | 3.92 | 6.28 |
2000-2004 | 3.4 | 6.04 |
2005-2009 | 2.46 | 5.24 |
2010-2014 | 2.12 | 5.7 |
2015-2019 | 1.9 | 3.32 |
With poult recruitment below 2 poults per hen (which ours has been for years now), the population is not sustainable. The middle TN survey has found similar production numbers and biologists/grad students doing the research have said that it's not sustainable. So has Dr. Chamberlain. So does common sense. Half of the poults are male. So if we have fewer than 2 poults for every hen, we are not producing enough new hen turkeys to replace the existing hen turkeys. But we're still pounding away at gobblers with great efficiency and we're doing it just as early as we always have.
Are decoys 100% to blame? No. But they don't help. They definitely target dominant males early in the season. We're definitely killing a LOT of the existing gobblers before most hens have been bred. And we are definitely seeing a steady decline in turkey reproduction numbers.
It should be hard to kill a turkey. As they say, "if it was easy, everybody would do it." Well, decoys make it easy to kill a turkey. And in the last 10-15 years, there has been an explosion in the number of people turkey hunting. But the state has made virtually no changes to the turkey regulations to account for the increase in hunters or the much greater efficiency with which they kill turkeys.