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spring 2019 total harvest numbers

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megalomaniac

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anyone want to venture a guess for this spring?

I don't have as strong evidence as last year predicting the large drop in harvest numbers, but my feeling is that the state did not have a great hatch 2 years ago (it certainly didn't in my areas), and fewer hens also seem to be around.

I feel we'll drop to 24,000 statewide this year. A small drop, but not nearly as precipitous as last year. 2 consecutive years of a harvest 25-30% under long term averages will certainly prove even to our turkey coordinator we have a problem. Hopefully the commission forces TWRA's hand in implementing meaningful changes to turkey regulations to protect a declining resource.

If last years low kill was a fluke as many argue (it wasn't), we should kill close to 40,000 birds this year from last years holdovers.

Of course, the flip side is if we drop significantly again (down to 22,000 or lower), that would indicate serious damage to the population made worse by irresponsible management.
 
First and second weekend pretty weather- 25,000 plus
First and or second weekend poor weather- probably 20,000 or so.

I have no idea honestly. I kinda got the feeling in my areas we've had two years in a row of pretty good point recruitment. I've said on here before, summer of 2016 was the first time I've seen baby poults in like 8 or 9 years. Summer/fall of 17 and 18 I saw even more poults and young juvies during September/October than possibly I ever had.
Hopefully these young hens spread out to find new nesting areas and are successful and the overall population will rebound.


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I hope the rest of the state has better recruitment.... I've only been up the one weekend... a couple weekends ago. Most places that were covered in birds are devoid this year.

I did pass one spot that had more birds than most places back in the late 90s that hasn't had a bird in a decade, and actually saw 2 toms and 10 hens on it.

It's hard to know for sure until the winter flocks completely split up..... are there just no birds at all at this location, or are they all bunched up in a flock of 150 just a few miles down the road?

I hope the latter.... I only found birds on 1 out of my 4 farms a couple weeks ago.

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megalomaniac":173ss8vm said:
It's hard to know for sure until the winter flocks completely split up.....
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Exactly.
I have some pretty large areas that currently have zero turkeys.

Also, the turkey kill could increase this spring, yet we might have fewer turkeys pre-season than a year ago.
More turkey killers afield, more decoys, more longer range rifled shotguns, may just mean we're killing a higher percentage of what's there.
 
JCDEERMAN":2ntnh1te said:
We definitely have less than any year prior in our area. I'm predicting a lower harvest than last year
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I've heard many hunters say similar.
However, looking "statewide" there may be many areas which previously had no or few turkeys, but now have some to many.

Seems to me, many traditionally "good" turkey population areas have seen a population decrease, which has been somewhat "statewide" camouflaged by turkey expanding into other areas previously void.

As an example, LBL had a spring kill in 2018 of only 43 turkeys.
But a decade ago in 2008 the spring kill was 90 turkeys (twice as many).
LBL's spring kill in 2007 was 117.

Never mind today's hunters are killing at longer ranges, using decoys, etc., having many more killing "advantages" (crutches if you like) than a decade ago. So why's the kill at LBL (and some other traditionally "good" turkey population areas) been trending downward? Could it be the progressively increasing advantages for killing turkeys have been camouflaging our having fewer turkeys?

A decade ago, most hunters were carrying 40-yd range shotguns.
Today, most are carrying 50-yd plus range shotguns?
A 25% range extension has to equate to more of what's there being killed?

But, I really doubt there's a huge difference this year over last "statewide" in the turkey kill.
If there's fewer turkeys, many hunters will just hunt harder & longer until they kill their bragging rights.
If there's more turkeys, many these same hunters will just kill what they want sooner, then move on to something else.
 
Based on what I experienced my last few years of turkey hunting along with what I hear from other hunters, it's beyond time for TWRA or the Commissioners or whoever is responsible for managing the states turkeys to get off their cushiony turkey stools and manage for the state and not their own little hot spots.
 
As of today, 19,846! I am guessing better than most thought at this point with still plenty of time left! The best way I have found to get the numbers is simply go to statewide Hunter success , choose dates and include WMA. I hope everyone is enjoying themselves hunting this season. I am getting whipped quite a bit but love every minute of it! Good luck!
 
deerfever":104zmv7r said:
As of today, 19,846! I am guessing better than most thought at this point with still plenty of time left! The best way I have found to get the numbers is simply go to statewide Hunter success , choose dates and include WMA. I hope everyone is enjoying themselves hunting this season. I am getting whipped quite a bit but love every minute of it! Good luck!
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I still haven't even been able to go. Have seen more birds than last year, but still less than 25% of long term average.
 
And for the most part the weather has been pretty amazing.
Personally, I've not been hard at it yet but I'm about to kick it into gear. Other than ticks this is my favorite time to get after them.



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I agree AT hiker coming up is my favorite time! I have been snakebite so far. I have had them out of range, henned up and when I finally had one in range , I had my gun pointed in the wrong direction! I have been whipped so bad I had to ask my wife to make sure that I have killed turkeys before! That's why I love hunting them so much you never know what's next!
 
deerfever":33cwbdge said:
I agree AT hiker coming up is my favorite time! I have been snakebite so far. I have had them out of range, henned up and when I finally had one in range , I had my gun pointed in the wrong direction! I have been whipped so bad I had to ask my wife to make sure that I have killed turkeys before! That's why I love hunting them so much you never know what's next!
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This season has been brutal. I started off real quick out of the gates now several weeks of basically silence. I'm hopeful it's going to improve
 
20,000 at this point means we should end up around 30,000 for the entire season. Much improved from last year, and reassuring that we didn't fall off a cliff in the wrong direction. I still can't get the hunter's toolbox to work correctly, however.

Personally, my farms that lost birds several years ago still don't have birds.

The farms that still had birds had a few more males than years prior, but significantly fewer hens. Made for some unreal easy hunting as toms were desperately looking for hens, but is very worrisome for the future.

I did see 2 decent groups of jakes on 2 of the farms, so last year's local hatch was evidently not as bad as I had initially feared.
 
Could someone please update the harvest #'s through today on this thread? I've not had any success with the Tool Box, even following the instructions some of you guys provided.
 
Thanks Andy! Looks like a part of your neck of the woods is about to be shut down again due to Caruthersville exceeding 34 ft. I feel sorry for the Mississippi River Bottom turkeys that have survived(the few). The River has basically been out of it's banks since January, non-stop.
 
Stlbaseball1":2mz10a6e said:
Looks like a part of your neck of the woods is about to be shut down again due to Caruthersville exceeding 34 ft.
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Correct, in the big river bottoms.

Here is the TWRA's guidance:

https://www.tn.gov/twra/news/2019/4/18/ ... osure.html

If you read the statement closely, it provides conflicting guidance, based on the river stage limitations TWRA set, and the river stages we are seeing at the moment. While we will exceed 34' at Caruthersville gage, Memphis gage never exceeds 32', the stage that TWRA opens it back up.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0
 

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