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The NWR turkey hunts

I've always known if Memphis is 26-28', you will most likely not be able to drive through the bottom. I expect Memphis gauge to be in that range middle of next week. If my mind serves me right, roads start becoming impassable when Osceola is in 33-34' range.

Those reference points are for a "rising river with a totally dry bottom", which is not the case today since we just had a 3 week long high water that flooded the bottoms.
 
Here is 34' on Osceola; notice blue across roads in the upper right corner (Barr road, Morris road, Watkins road, etc).

DWktC31.gif
 
Image my buddy took this past Friday in the bottoms up that way, just not sure of exact location. Osceola was a 15', and Memphis was a 17'.

I suspect this was left over back water from recent flood, as well as recent storm water that has no where to go (drain out) with the ground being totally saturated and tributaries chock full.

uMSOJ64.jpg
 
That's one of two places that could be with phone poles, Chisholm Lake Rd at the south end of Chisholm Lake or Barr Rd just west of Ed Jones Boat Ramp.

I'd say its Chisholm Lake Rd. The restaurant was open this weekend but they were advising all of their customers to come in from the north due to water being on the road.
 
I used to drive in from Ed Jones boat landing @ 30 Caruthersville gauge but that was in the eighties and a lot has changed since then. The levee to the left side of the road did not exist then.
Any higher we put boat in just off the bluff from the Arp side.

Reelfoot will also have a lot for water to deal with.
 
Hawk":3flefbiz said:
I used to drive in from Ed Jones boat landing @ 30 Caruthersville gauge ......
Click to expand...
With this rain event, and the rain projected in the near term, I expect Caruthersville gauge to be 35' this time next week.
 
Andy S.":ce3sy5g4 said:
Hawk":ce3sy5g4 said:
I used to drive in from Ed Jones boat landing @ 30 Caruthersville gauge ......
Click to expand...
With this rain event, and the rain projected in the near term, I expect Caruthersville gauge to be 35' this time next week.
Click to expand...

Loaded up and heading for the Tennessee River hills shortly.
 
Andy S.":120qyqsm said:
Hawk":120qyqsm said:
I used to drive in from Ed Jones boat landing @ 30 Caruthersville gauge ......
Click to expand...
With this rain event, and the rain projected in the near term, I expect Caruthersville gauge to be 35' this time next week.
Click to expand...
The NWS Extended Streamflow Prediction released this morning at 11:25 is showing 32.5 on the Caruthersville gauge next Thursday and cresting at that stage. Does the Corps of Engineers information come from some other source, Andy??
 
^^^No. We work closely with NWS during high water events, but they issue the "official" river forecast. With that said, you have to look at the bottom of their forecast and recognize it states the following:

"ALL STAGE FORECASTS INCLUDE 48 HOURS OF FUTURE RAINFALL"

What they're saying is after 48 hours, not another drop will fall from the sky ANYWHERE in the floodplain for that forecast to hold true. It's spring time and we're in a very rainy pattern next 2-3 weeks, so I know that 32.5' is very conservative, both in stage, and in time, as when we'll see 32.5'. You and I both know rain is in the forecast for the next 10 days, and likely longer, but for sure well beyond 48 hours.

Make sense now?
 
Clear as mud. Typical weather forecasting. But thanks for pointing me to the fine print Andy. We only got 1 1/2 inches of rain here in North Hardeman County since last night so I'm hoping for less rainfall than is forecast for the next 2 weeks.
 
Just a FYI since we're close to that shut off stage.
 

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Even if the water does drop out of Chickasaw Refuge before my hunt in 2 weeks, any idea how long it would take before the turkeys come back down off of the bluff>>
 
It's possible for the Caruthersville stage to reach the cutoff point of 34 feet and the Memphis stage to never rise above the 32 foot level for re-instatement of the turkey season. Then what??
 
SKFOOTER":2rzl9xjy said:
It's possible for the Caruthersville stage to reach the cutoff point of 34 feet and the Memphis stage to never rise above the 32 foot level for re-instatement of the turkey season. Then what??
Click to expand...

I imagine that's very possible and I've wondered the same thing.

They tossed this rule together at the last moment during the 2015 Winter flood, I personally don't think it was very well thought out. For example- all of Lake Co and parts of Weakley Co is in the emergency closure zone but protected by levee. Yea those areas hold slash water in places but dont deal with 8ft deep of water and current.
 
SKFOOTER":10kql35z said:
Even if the water does drop out of Chickasaw Refuge before my hunt in 2 weeks, any idea how long it would take before the turkeys come back down off of the bluff>>
Click to expand...

Old timers have told me those birds will stay up in the trees as long as they have food. Some of those places are miles from the bluff, I don't see all of them hitting the bluff.
 
If TWRA follows their own guidance, there will be no turkey hunting in that zone if Memphis never falls below 32'. To avoid mass confusion amongst the public, I'd expect TWRA to follow that guidance to a tee.

Some of the long range forecasts indicate Memphis may reach 32' around April 8th and stay above 32' for 2-3 weeks.
 

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