I put these graphs together last year when we were discussing turkey limits, tactics, and their link to population decline in the state of TN. As you can see I used four of the "better" turkey populated counties in the Mid TN area. I also hunt two of these counties (Rutherford & Wilson). The graphs show turkey kills from 2006 to 2015.
The first thing I want to disclaim is in hind sight I should not have used Williamson Co. First off, I know they have plenty of turkeys in Williamson Co. Second off, there is land to hunt there, but if you are not close with the land owner, good luck finding it and gaining access. I would guess declines in that county have more to do with lack of hunting than any other factor. I know people hunt the county for Turkeys, but I still regularly see flocks of 50+ birds in fields. This morning I saw 10+ strutters and a gaggle of hens to go with them in one field.
The second thing I want to disclaim is Rutherford, lost a lot of prime turkey hunting land when the Blackman area was developed. I live there and can attest there are a ton of turkeys in that area. Some are hunted, most are not.
A few things that stick out to me:
• All counties start higher in 2006 (induction of the 4 bird limit) and then drop over the next 2-3 years.
• Maury and Rutherford only went down for 2 years before heading back up, although Maury was only up +3 birds from 2008 to 2009. Wilson and Williamson continued to go down hitting rock bottom in 2009.
• All 4 counties went up pretty significantly from 2009 to 2010. Rutherford had the biggest increase of 47 %.
• All counties saw declines after 2010, followed by a pop in 2013, other than Rutherford County.
• All counties have seen decreases the last 2 years 2014 & 2015 (Note: Rutherford county kills have been declining since 2010).
• All the counties seem to follow a similar pattern. It would be interesting to see brood surveys from a year or two before the big kill years.
Something of note. I ran the #'s from the same period last year vs. this year and they are pretty close.
• Maury is at 806 (-70) vs. last year, Rutherford is at 465 (+36) vs. last year, Williamson is at 412 (+20) vs. last year, and Wilson is at 535 (+1) vs. last year.
• We are at 27,192 for the year as a state vs. 26,359 last year (+833).
All that said, The more I think about this the more I am convinced that kill #'s don't tell the whole story and while fanning, decoys, and blinds are definitely leading to birds being killed that may never have been touched by the hunter using them, the biggest issue IMO is lack of poult production and recruitment. I used to see hens all the time with 8-10 little ones behind them, but now I hardly ever see any poults. IMO if we don't find a solution to protecting hen's nests, and protecting the birds (especially the poults) from predators, we will continue to see a decline. I agree we need to cancel the fall seasons and reduce hen killing to a minimum, but IMO if we don't start getting some poult production, the decline will continue.