Unfortunately - and I will take some of the blame for this - QDM concepts got a bit oversold. Too many hunters think passing up middle-aged bucks is going to assure those bucks will be back as mature bucks in later years. Yes, this does work quite well on large properties, say those over 1,000 acres. And especially those in the 2,500+ acre range. However, on the small 10 to 50-acre parcels, not so much. Heck, I've got 500 acres, and we do see some bucks back from year to year, but it is a minority. I've never tried to calculate the percentage, but someday I'll get around to it. But I would guess that maybe 20% of passed 2 1/2s make it maturity on our property, and maybe 33% of 3 1/2 year-olds. Abd we certainly do see the occasional mature buck show up that we've never seen before.
This is just me personally, but instead of being frustrated year after year hoping to produce some mature bucks on a small property, I would learn through trail-cams what the best you can consistently hope to produce, and then target those bucks. Maybe that's just an above average 3 1/2. But I would set my goals using the reality of the situation.