70% there

[woodsman04]

I think it's about the same in my areas this year as it has been the last 5-7 years which is better than 10-12 years ago.
I do think that there could be a overharvest this season with the good weather, people off work, and ultra realistic decoys and tss


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[AT Hiker]

One thing to consider, which may not make much difference, but some areas are closed to hunting this year.


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[AT Hiker]

Another perspective to look at;
In the first week of season the kill numbers have been...
2017~12,863
2018~9,563
2019~10,694
2020~17,933

Personal opinion, the Covid has killed more turkeys than anything else.


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[tellico4x4]

"Personal opinion, the Covid has killed more turkeys than anything else."

Agree, on our little piece of the world we killed 12 during the first 10 days of season, with folks hunting more. Gobbling during those days was like 7-8 yrs ago! However, it has shut down almost completely this past week. We still have a few hunting, but by in large we have backed off them.

We have seen quite a few Jakes this spring. Think I have personally seen 15 on our place.

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[Southern Sportsman]

12 days into 2020 season and TN hunters have removed over 22,000 Turks from the woods. Compare that to a little over 31,000 for ALL of 2019.


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We're now over 30,000 for the year.

 

[th88]

I keep a spreadsheet of all the states I hunt, tracking the public land harvests of areas I hunt or am interested in. Yesterday I added several new WMAs to the list in TN due to the social media and YouTubers. and WOW! Lets just say the populations in certain parts of the state have exploded in the last 5-6 years! Unfortunately, none are the ones close to me. The kill numbers have increased too much to simply be due to more hunting pressure. I also track jake harvests which is often a decent indicator of what to expect the following spring.

What gets fun is when the populations start leveling back off and the higher pressure from higher bird numbers (and now days, social media and YouTubes) remains.

 

[Andy S.]

36,500 and counting with 14 days of hunting left.

 

[PickettSFHunter]

I'm definitely in one of those lighter shaded areas.

 

[megalomaniac]

Looks like this year is going to be a record kill. Normally that would be a great thing... but looking at long term population trend data, to me it looks like we removed a much higher percentage of the existing males this year.

My prediction is that we don't break 30,000 next year. Sure, I know that in record years the following year is only supposed to drop 10% or so... but I think we killed so many jakes and standing males this year, there just won't be any population expansion to new areas, and in fact, turkey distribution will contract which will result in an unusually large decline of 20%. There will still be localized areas with a ton of birds, but areas with low populations may not have any at all next year.

The only saving grace is that in my localized areas we had a good hatch last year (contrary to the rest of the state according to twra biologists). I saved a dozen or so toms on my farms, so a few should make it to next year to give me something to chase. I just pray we have a great hatch this year (4 poults per hen) observed in August to reverse the damage this year caused.

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[TheLBLman]

. . . . . just pray we have a great hatch this year (4 poults per hen) observed in August to reverse the damage this year caused.

HOPE is not a good management plan.
Will just be luck if we have a good hatch two years in a row.

 

[Andy S.]

I'm definitely in one of those lighter shaded areas.

Tell me about it. The infamous Maury county has killed more than DOUBLE (2X) all of the west TN counties combined that border the MS River. If there ever was a reason to manage turkeys by regions, not sure anyone here could find something more convincing.

 

[megalomaniac]

This will be the first year that a 4 bird limit killed the turkey in TN....

In prior years, very few people spent enough time in the woods to tag 3 or 4 birds.

This year was a perfect storm. Best weather we've ever had in a spring season, PLUS more time afield for hunting days due to corona. I bet we set a record for number of hunters tagging 3 or 4 birds this spring.

Normally I'm in the camp that pushing season opening back 2 weeks would do more for helping turkeys recover in areas they have been depleted, but this year in particular would have benefitted from a 2 bird limit.

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[Boll Weevil]

At first I thought this might be a silver lining but after thinking it through, not so much. In my county, while this spring's kill is higher than say the last year or 2, it is WELL LOWER than the 10-15 year average. We used to kill 700, 800, 900 birds before the bottom fell out after multiple crappy hatches and a more liberal limit.

But alas, faulty thinking on my part. There's more turkey hunters now than back then and what we are seeing now just isn't sustainable. You just can't slay breeder birds early with possibly more hunter x days afield than any other time. I agree with others; we could absolutely be watching lasting damage being done.

 

[TN hunter]

I'm definitely in one of those lighter shaded areas.

Tell me about it. The infamous Maury county has killed more than DOUBLE (2X) all of the west TN counties combined that border the MS River. If there ever was a reason to manage turkeys by regions, not sure anyone here could find something more convincing.

Andy,

Great post. I live and hunt in Maury county and have seen so many more people hunting this year (Public and private land). I have seen several places that have been hunted by multiple hunters with several birds being killed on each property. Most of these properties are 50- 100 acre ranges. I know Maury county has been a top harvest total county for awhile. However, I believe this season record harvest will definitely put a hurt on Maury county in the years to come. I agree that changes need to be made. However, I am concerned that by regulating by regions will cause hunters from areas of declining populations to travel and hunt in areas that have better populations ( like Maury county) that's already occurring now. Ultimately, those counties with better populations will decline as well from the increased hunters and success. Especially if the bag limits remain unchanged.


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[JDUB]

So my question is this....for every 4 turkeys that ARE checked, how many are NOT? There are more outlaws out there than I want to think about. So is the harvest 35k ish or closer to 45-50k?

 

[AT Hiker]

So my question is this....for every 4 turkeys that ARE checked, how many are NOT? There are more outlaws out there than I want to think about. So is the harvest 35k ish or closer to 45-50k?

Idk but you could add in natural mortality (predators, etc), wounded and lost birds, vehicle collisions, etc, etc.

Those are numbers we never truly know so from a hunter harvest perspective they are almost irrelevant, IMO. We cannot so much about it but we can control the hunter harvest to a point.


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[Boll Weevil]

Those are numbers we never truly know so from a hunter harvest perspective they are almost irrelevant, IMO. We cannot so much about it but we can control the hunter harvest to a point.

^ This. Poachers gonna poach. Bobcats gonna get bobcat. Those are unknowable numbers so have little relevance when compared to to known, checked hunter harvest.

 

[woodsman04]

I bet poachers may be somewhat down this season since tagging went back to the original way. Predators always going to predator.

What I may be speculating getting worse every year is crippled up and die 5 days later or what not. Because so many idiots out there taking ridiculous 70 yard shots and not batting an eye, and if it's early season they could just spray 2 gobblers and 5 hens easily. Plus some people just flat out can't shoot cause they didn't grow up shooting guns in the first place.


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[PickettSFHunter]

I just think poaching is a lot more rampant than most people realize. I don't know that many in my area that hunt legally for turkey or deer. This problem got bad when deer hunters started turkey hunting. I had an interesting discussion with a 7 year old neighbor yesterday. He was asking about my season and started telling me about his family's season...... Daddy killed 6 in TN, brother Killed 4, 7 year old killed 3. All in a county with a low population and low harvest. Their technique was lots of corn and lots of decoys on the corn. Several corn stations on several properties going at the same time. I didn't even know what to say to the kid because he just thought that was normal turkey hunting.

 

[TheLBLman]

I just think poaching is a lot more rampant than most people realize.

I totally agree, especially when one understands that hunting "in-season" over bait, even if the birds are "legally" checked in . . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
It's still poaching.

Our game laws just have no teeth in them.
Main problem is with the judges who refuse to prosecute the cases.