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2 predictions for 2018 turkey season

last energy im wasting on this, why should we change the whole state to try fix a few counties, its no bigger issue than, there was a disease(blackhead?) and there was whatever was in the chicken poop, your birds will recover. it is no statewide the sky is falling epidemic or the kill numbers would be way down as a whole and there not
 
Spoken like a very selfish individual! Hunters and license purchasers live and hunt all across this state so TWRA should be in tune with every area of this state when it comes to wild game management and act accordingly. And hopefully be proactive and not just reactive.
 
megalomaniac":3o6iosi7 said:
#1 this will be the lowest kill since turkey restoration completed

#2 TWRA will institute regulation changes to try to mitigate the population decline.

I hope I eat crow on #1, but I pray that #2- the regulation changes will be something meaningful, not just lowering limit or eliminating bearded hen killing. TN's turkeys NEED the season pushed back 2 weeks with the same ending date, and jakes need to be off limits. OFC, I'd love to see all hen killing eliminated, spring or fall, but we really need to let the hens initiate a fertile nest before we take out the LB's, especially in those areas with marginal populations.
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Hey megalo-dramatic, how bout you go back to Mississippi and worry about there turkeys ;) Turkeys right on schedule here in the East Tn mountains. I predict an epic season for myself and friends, in terms of numbers of Gobblers to hunt. Several,and I do mean several, 2 year olds running around this year. Last year's crazy amount of Jakes seem to have made it through and be all grown up now :) Lots of googans on the mountain these first 4 days, doing typical googan things. Been lurking in the shadows so far, basically staying low key and taking inventory on my spots. Came close to actually "engaging" this morning, but the wind and open woods, made it hard to both move and keep tabs on 'em. Backed out and played it safe for today.
 
ahurst":2f0mbta1 said:
I hope TWRA doesn't manage any animals based on their budget from license revenue but I suspect several of ya,ll are correct. Even then I think resident license holders should be the ones considered the most. When people who buy the license and lifetime holders start calling for a reduction in limits on anything common sense says they should listen. I love turkey hunting I am just not very good at it. I killed multiple turkeys one year and that is the only year I ever killed more than one. Several years I have not killed any. I have used decoys a couple of times every year and have never had any luck with them so I don't really understand the disdain for them but I am ok if they are stopped. I do understand the disdain for fanning and the robo decoy. Once again I will say, TWRA and the TWRC really don't listen to us. I'm sure someone on here will take up for them but that is still the way I feel. Setterman and other accomplished turkey hunters have been asking for a reduction in spring and fall limits for several years now. People on the deer hunting forum have asked for a reduction in the three does a day limit for several years now. It is a shame it takes TWRA and the TWRC that long to wake up and just listen!

P.S. It is very difficult for a novice turkey hunter to learn how to hunt them when there aren't many around to listen to. May affect the future of the sport.
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Good post
 
ahurst":w4p6yoji said:
P.S. It is very difficult for a novice turkey hunter to learn how to hunt them when there aren't many around to listen to. May affect the future of the sport.
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You sir have hit the nail in the head here. Hunter success is arguably the most significant impact to attracting and keeping new hunters. This was my defense for the reduced buck limit (in addition to a older age class) and I was labeled a "liberal who thinks everyone should get a trophy".

Hunter success is the key and the states need to realize this, job security.


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Just for fun, ran the numbers for juvie plus the first 4 days of general season (the highest harvest dates)
2018- 7509 birds killed
2017- cannot get numbers to pull up on harvest log, not sure if there is some data loss when they xferred to the new system
2016- 10,754 birds killed
2015- 9,636 birds killed

Not sure if the trend will continue for the remainder of the season, but 25% drop over past couple year averages is pretty darn significant. OFC it must be due to the weather.
 
megalomaniac":3sqoahvx said:
.....it must be due to the weather.
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Mother nature did not do us any favors the first 4 days of season, and I am sure Easter Sunday falling on opening weekend did not help the kill numbers either. With that said, Easter fell on the opener in 2015 as well.

2017 - 11,316
 
ouch, that's a 33% drop from last season.

ofc, we're down 50% from the highs back in the late 00's when 14,000 birds were killed in first 4 days of season plus juvie weekend.
 
You can't base the youth and first 4 days of season as a thesis for your view of the decline in turkey population. Youth weekend was horrible weather. I know 2 kids that have killed birds the past 4 youth seasons didn't even go cause of the weather. I didn't take my son on Saturday cause it was raining and low 30's at daylight and winds all day. Sunday wasn't much better either. Neither made it a fun way to introduce kids to the sport. This weekend is looking like snow/rain on Saturday for E TN area. it will hurt the numbers again but let a few birds survive to breed. Easter weekend has to hurt things too. I usually hunt good Friday but it was before season this year. I know of 8 hunters that didn't hunt cause of Easter and the 1 that did, didn't even go till 1:30.

I've seen tons of birds around in fields like always. i would be good with cutting back the number of birds from 4 to 2 or 3. Heck some states only allow you to kill 1 bird a week. I've seen on FB a lot of people already killed 2 and some 3 birds this week. That hits the population hard the first week.
 
Shooter77":ejg5bpkv said:
You can't base the youth and first 4 days of season as a thesis for your view of the decline in turkey population...
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of course not.... I looked the numbers up just for fun. It IS interesting that this year is the LOWEST (by far) kill at this point in the season since turkey reintroduction was completed, however.

It is possible that we've never had bad weather during juvenile and the first 4 days of the season in the past decade and a half. It is possible that hunters are choosing to pass up 2 y/o birds and focus on killing older birds this year. It is possible the birds have become smarter and harder to kill. It is possible that this is all just a fluke, and we'll reach TWRA's estimated plateau of 70,000 birds killed this year (our expected kill released back in the late 90's early 00's during the restoration phase) by backloading the harvest at the end of the season.

And I realize that harvest numbers are not directly related to turkey populations either. But 3 years ago was the first time I heard a few others clamoring that we had fewer turkeys statewide, 2 years ago I heard quite a few recognizing the decline in population, and last year TWRA finally recognized publicly turkeys were in decline. Turkey biology is simple...

Again, I hope I eat crow when I said this will be the lowest kill since restoration completed. We still have 5 1/2 weeks to catch up. That either means we have more birds left out there than we've ever had before- in which case I'm going to have another fun 2 trips up.... or it means we have fewer birds to hunt- which means that more and more will continue to dream about the glory days a decade ago.
 
We may be down in numbers a little but I don't think it's gonna be the lowest since restocking. Much of the state still has great populations of birds. You get a few areas that decline and it has some effect on the statewide numbers and everyone freaks out like turkeys are going extinct. I will be worried when I see a statewide decline which I hope does not happen, but I'm sure it could if things change and the commission doesn't change regs accordingly


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catman529":3r4qbi0g said:
We may be down in numbers a little but I don't think it's gonna be the lowest since restocking. Much of the state still has great populations of birds.


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"Much" is not really a defined term. In addition you can't really quantify this statement seeing as you only visually observe an extremely small portion of the entire state. Not saying your wrong but it's really more of an opinion without supporting facts and statistics.


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If we wait until harvest numbers drop dramatically we've waited too long. That's the twra way though, wait until it's a crisis before actually waking up.

Outlaw plastic turkeys!!!!
 
Nothing is going to get done on seeing the turkey bag limit reduced until hunters take the time to go to the season setting meetings in mass and let the Commission know that is what they want. Writing a letter into the season setting recommendations for TWRA IS part of the process and does get looked at. However, it is not enough to get the change.

For over 25 years I watched the bear hunters come in mass to commission meetings, and they often got what they were wanting. Commercial fishermen did the same type of in mass lobbying, and got favorable changes in regulations.

Fair or not, griping on a talk forum does nothing to getting the change. Commissions for decades have understood the squeaky wheel. Often it get greased. But, it means taking the time off work, out of the turkey woods, etc. and standing before them to be really "heard". In the past 20+ years I have heard one person stand before them and ask for reductions in turkey hunting. That person was me. And, it resulted in cuts in the fall season. It wasn't everything I asked for, but, I was heard.

If you want to see some changes, take the time to be at the April and May Commission meetings and stand up for what you want to be heard about. Or, sit back and gripe when no changes are made. The blueprint on getting listened to is pretty simple.
 
knightrider":1iim4n5z said:
last energy im wasting on this, why should we change the whole state to try fix a few counties, its no bigger issue than, there was a disease(blackhead?) and there was whatever was in the chicken poop, your birds will recover. it is no statewide the sky is falling epidemic or the kill numbers would be way down as a whole and there not
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I'm not for dropping the limit, not to 2 anyway. But There s some things birds won't recover from. Trust me we've been without for 12 years now
 
This got me thinking. LBL opens late in the season but bird numbers are not fairing well. LBL seems to lack the suitable habitat, not saying a late opener wouldn't help but on a place like LBL it's a price of the pie, but how big a piece?


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ahurst":1yumv3d4 said:
I do not agree that people need to show up at the meetings in mass to get change. I have been through that fiasco for years with the Memphis City Council. I think e-mails and to some extent even these forums need to be considered by government officials. Even the TWRC ask for E-mails to be sent for recommendations. When I posted earlier that someone would speak up taking up for them I knew who it would be and don't get me wrong if that is your opinion you have a right to it and I am ok with it just don't refer to others who love turkey hunting and are speaking their mind as whining. A lot of them probably understand more than any game warden, biologist, and especially commissioner in the state because they actually spend the time and money and do the actual field time. Even when people disagree it should not be called whining or there is really no need for forums like this to even exist. Most times it is the only way to keep up with other hunters in the rest of the state.
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I've re-read my post 3-4 times, and I can't see where I used the word whining the first time. Please point it out to me so I can edit it out since it obviously hurt somebody's feelings.

Emails, letters, calls, etc are considered by both the agency and commission. However, my post was just pointing out 25+ years of watching the process. I have no doubt in my mind that standing up in front of the commission and respectively speaking your piece will trump all of that as well.
 
As an aside for those who may not know SCN,
he has attended in person nearly every TWRA Commission meeting for the past 25 years,
so he has a good "handle" on what works and what doesn't.
 
I have in the past, and will continue in the future, to "take up" for TWRA and/or the Commission if I think they are being unfairly portrayed. This was NOT a case of that.

Before I posted, there was post after post of folks complaining, "griping", or whatever the "proper" word might be about the direction our turkey hunting is going. I 100% agree with that those thoughts. I think it is going in the wrong direction as well. There is nothing in my post putting down folks for their comments, because I am in total agreement.

My sole reason for posting was to relay my observations from year after year of watching the process on what worked the best in getting favorable results for groups of hunters and fishermen. No where in my post did I say that was the way it should be. It sucks to have to take a day off work to really up the chances of being heard on an issue. Unfortunately, IMO, that is the reality of the situation.

I'll try my dead level best not to respond to any more of your personal attacks. I have WAY too much respect for the job you did and retired from down there to want to be in a peeing contest with you. I hope you and the others that see some of the current issues with our turkey flock can get some reasonable changes made however it is done.
 

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