2 predictions for 2018 turkey season

[deerfever]

Thanks LBL man you made my point, some guys are using two weeks of data to suggest a point of turkey decline. You yourself said 5 years worth has nothing to do with turkey population, that was the point I was making you can't judge turkey population based off two weeks if 5 years means nothing. As far as kill numbers going up , there is a limit so how would they go up to lets say 40,000? I know last year I was done half way through the season( and did not post it on Facebook) Not bragging but in other words I couldn't hunt anymore, just like I am sure others may already be done this year. My point was the numbers seem to be leveling off. With the exception of last season when they went up by 2000. Your basis of argument seems to be from what you and other turkey hunters have "observed".I have hunted Tn for 35 years for turkey so I am just going on what I have observed. The counties I hunt have always had turkeys so I am not in the new expanding population counties that you speak of. I seen plenty of Jake's last season and have already seen several this season so I guess my area just has good habitat and poult production. Maybe the hills are so steep the predators do not want to fool with it! LoL. In the end we are all on the same side as I truly do care about turkey hunting , it is an obsession for me. I will go by whatever laws are made for the good of our sport.I was Just trying my best to understand what some of you are basing your theory on. I also didn't realize more people are turkey hunting now than ever as I have worked in Education for 26 years and it is rare now to find a few kids that hunt anything and that's a shame! I appreciate your input and basis for your theory! Thank you

 

[megalomaniac]

LBL gets it...

Deerfever, you and I must not be seeing the same things in the turkey woods, and you have more experience than me. I didn't start turkey hunting until 1988. Remember, I didn't make this prediction after the season was open 2 weeks, I made the bold prediction this would be the lowest kill since reintroduction was completed BEFORE the season opened. I don't cover the majority of the state, but I do cover the best turkey habitat in the entire state. 9/10 places are declining or devoid of turkeys, 1/10 are increasing. I'm glad you're at a spot where they're doing great. Just realize your birds WILL BE GONE in another 10 years unless something changes. Sure there will be a handful of birds scattered throughout.

And whomever was quoted in the article Goodtimekiller posted has no business speaking as a turkey authority, and that article has the equivalent or slightly lower credibility than the national enquirer.

 

[Andy S.]

For those who look at the past 5-15 years data as a guideline as to what the statewide population is like today, I want to hear your opinion below. Personally, I am not a big fan of looking at "checked in data" as a true indicator of what the overall population is doing. Yes, it's better than nothing, but as discussed in this thread, there are just too many variables as to what makes up the "checked-in data", and those variables change year to year, and for sure change drastically over 5-10 years. LBLMan has eluded to a lot of them as far as the hunters being more efficient with decoys, HTL shot, tight chokes, etc, and in turn, this high "hunter efficiency" typically leads to success, which in turn leads to those same successful hunters returning next year, and out years with continued success, albeit on a "possible" lower statewide turkey population. In contrast, if you remove all of these "advancements" that make more of the turkey hunters successful, hunters do not kill as many birds this year, I suspect you lose some hunters next year and even more in out years due to be unsuccessful and no fun while afield. In turn, the turkey population likely thrives more so than the previous example I outlined (high efficient hunters = success = continued success = continuous hunter recruitment in out years = higher pressure on birds for years to come).

So back to using the statewide kill data (checked-in data) as a guideline for managing the flock and instituting changes, or not.

If you were the statewide turkey biologist in 2002, and you had this "harvest/checked-in data" in front of you as a guideline, what would your opinion of the population be? Would you recommend any changes? More restrictions? More liberal bag limits? Anything? Let's hear your thoughts. There is no right or wrong answer, so fire away.

 

[deerfever]

Mega you are correct , we are not seeing the same things in the turkey woods! You are killing more than me and Congrats by the way! Again I want you to understand I rarely comment on here and certainly do not want to argue. I know you made the prediction before season but the numbers are being thrown up each week to compare to previous years which does not make sense to me, Again it seems like every weekend the weather goes bad. I am also willing to say or at least in my area a lot of guys quit hunting after two to three weeks when they realize its not as easy as the videos and they go" fishing". So your prediction may come true. All I know is like some others have commented the birds seem on schedule and in good shape in my area. I took my son today and the wind blew so hard I almost went to the dollar store to buy a kite! We did see a big strutter in an open area with a hen but I will give you one guess how that went! I was just trying to wrap my mind around the basis for all the calls for a reduced limit with the last five years of harvest numbers being steady. I appreciate your opinions and thanks for your insight! I truly wish you the best the rest of the season as you can tell you put the time in and wear some boots out during the season!

 

[Goodtimekiller]

How do you kill 32,000 a year and 34,000 last year and get that our population is in turmoil?

From those numbers alone, we do not get "turmoil".

But based on much long-term hunter observation, we do see an overall "decline" in statewide turkey populations.
My thought is as the population has been declining, hunters have been each year killing a higher percentage of living birds.
We may also be killing today a relatively higher percentage of the living 3-yr-old and older Toms compared to times past.
EVERYTHING above and below is reducing breeding success, nesting success, and young poult survival.

IMO, the only plausible explanation for a sustained annual harvest is we're killing progressively a higher percentage of what we have. At some point, this harvest is not only NOT sustainable, but may rapidly collapse, statewide, not just in certain counties and parts of counties.

For example, let's just say many years ago hunters each year might have killed 60% of the living males during the spring season.
Perhaps a few years ago it was up to 70%.
Perhaps now it's north of 80%.

Think about why this is a plausible theory:

We have gone from a 2-bird spring season, to a 3-bird spring season, to now a 4-bird spring season.
We have gone from lead turkey loads (maximum high-probability kill range was around 40-45 yards)
to now HTL/TSS turkey loads (maximum high-probability kill range extended to 45-55 yards).

Add to this a collapsing of time frames in learning how to "kill" turkeys via the internet, videos, TV.
And some of the methods for outright "killing" turkeys today were much less employed only a few years ago.

Here's what I and many long-term turkey hunters have observed:

Generally fewer turkeys over time (in long established turkey areas) which gobble less and come out into fields less.

Few have picked up on all the "whys" this has happened (nor do I claim to have all the answers).
But part of why appears to be increased predation by both human and non-human hunters as well.
A few years ago, I had never, then rarely seen a bald eagle in many my turkey-hunting areas.
Today, I see and find regularly evidence of eagles hunting turkeys,
and do believe this plays a role into why turkeys have become less inclined to come out into more open areas.

Wherever turkeys have become well established, over time, all predators become more efficient at killing them,
and that includes us human hunters. I used to never to seldom see coyotes and bobcats during mid-day.
Today I see coyotes and bobcats during mid-day specifically hunting for turkeys.

Finally, there is a change in hunter attitudes that has gone from highly valuing "playing the game" of traditional calling/hunting,
to many being more interested in simply how quickly they can kill the limit and post their accomplishment on facebook.

If we have fewer turkeys statewide, how can we not be killing a higher percentage of the male birds each year?
At this point, how can this not be "trending" the wrong direction?

To those who have "plenty" of birds, are you in an area that had little to no turkeys and turkey hunting say 2 or 3 decades ago? Some of these "newer" counties and parts of counties may still be experiencing expansion and population increases. But time is not on your side either. It's just that "statewide" these newer areas of turkey expansion may be camouflaging the population decline in the longer established flocks.

Today, imo, the statewide turkey harvest is no longer much an indicator of our turkey populations.

One thing that I have seen that does not quite agree with what you said, but may make it worse, when there are fewer turkeys, to me, they seem to gobble more, trying to find the spread out hens, making them more vulnerable.

I'm not quite sure we kill that high of a percentage of male birds. The last #s I saw for the state population was 300,000. We kill roughly 15% of those birds. Who knows how many of the 300,000 are male but there should be a considerable number left.

One thing I have not seen mentioned on here is carrying capacity. I heard a biologist suggest this years ago but you don't hear much about it. When you have a population expanding quickly it doesn't just stop at carrying capacity but has usually exceeds it for a short time until the population drastically drops because it can't be sustained. It can look similar to ehd in deer, too populated, disease spreads like wildfire. And grouse and hares in the north which go through a 10 year cycle. When prey greatly increases predators increase, prey falls then predators fall. If you think about it, turkeys were increasing at a time when subdivisions are spreading and farms are breaking up. Sure we see lots of turkeys in subdivisions, but you know the nesting cover can't be adequate. And then what does the trash around subdivisions and houses draw? Nesting predators. And even though turkeys can live around subdivisions and houses, as their population is increasing habitat and cover is decreasing, which decreases the carrying capacity. I would think this would have to add to the situation anywhere that there is human population growth. But some of the biggest flocks i know of live close to the middle of town.


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[Goodtimekiller]

And whomever was quoted in the article Goodtimekiller posted has no business speaking as a turkey authority, and that article has the equivalent or slightly lower credibility than the national enquirer.[/quote]

This may be true, but it looks like this is who our turkey population depends on. [emoji51]


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[woodsman04]

How do you kill 32,000 a year and 34,000 last year and get that our population is in turmoil?

From those numbers alone, we do not get "turmoil".

But based on much long-term hunter observation, we do see an overall "decline" in statewide turkey populations.
My thought is as the population has been declining, hunters have been each year killing a higher percentage of living birds.
We may also be killing today a relatively higher percentage of the living 3-yr-old and older Toms compared to times past.
EVERYTHING above and below is reducing breeding success, nesting success, and young poult survival.

IMO, the only plausible explanation for a sustained annual harvest is we're killing progressively a higher percentage of what we have. At some point, this harvest is not only NOT sustainable, but may rapidly collapse, statewide, not just in certain counties and parts of counties.

For example, let's just say many years ago hunters each year might have killed 60% of the living males during the spring season.
Perhaps a few years ago it was up to 70%.
Perhaps now it's north of 80%.

Think about why this is a plausible theory:

We have gone from a 2-bird spring season, to a 3-bird spring season, to now a 4-bird spring season.
We have gone from lead turkey loads (maximum high-probability kill range was around 40-45 yards)
to now HTL/TSS turkey loads (maximum high-probability kill range extended to 45-55 yards).

Add to this a collapsing of time frames in learning how to "kill" turkeys via the internet, videos, TV.
And some of the methods for outright "killing" turkeys today were much less employed only a few years ago.

Here's what I and many long-term turkey hunters have observed:

Generally fewer turkeys over time (in long established turkey areas) which gobble less and come out into fields less.

Few have picked up on all the "whys" this has happened (nor do I claim to have all the answers).
But part of why appears to be increased predation by both human and non-human hunters as well.
A few years ago, I had never, then rarely seen a bald eagle in many my turkey-hunting areas.
Today, I see and find regularly evidence of eagles hunting turkeys,
and do believe this plays a role into why turkeys have become less inclined to come out into more open areas.

Wherever turkeys have become well established, over time, all predators become more efficient at killing them,
and that includes us human hunters. I used to never to seldom see coyotes and bobcats during mid-day.
Today I see coyotes and bobcats during mid-day specifically hunting for turkeys.

Finally, there is a change in hunter attitudes that has gone from highly valuing "playing the game" of traditional calling/hunting,
to many being more interested in simply how quickly they can kill the limit and post their accomplishment on facebook.

If we have fewer turkeys statewide, how can we not be killing a higher percentage of the male birds each year?
At this point, how can this not be "trending" the wrong direction?

To those who have "plenty" of birds, are you in an area that had little to no turkeys and turkey hunting say 2 or 3 decades ago? Some of these "newer" counties and parts of counties may still be experiencing expansion and population increases. But time is not on your side either. It's just that "statewide" these newer areas of turkey expansion may be camouflaging the population decline in the longer established flocks.

Today, imo, the statewide turkey harvest is no longer much an indicator of our turkey populations.

One thing that I have seen that does not quite agree with what you said, but may make it worse, when there are fewer turkeys, to me, they seem to gobble more, trying to find the spread out hens, making them more vulnerable.

I'm not quite sure we kill that high of a percentage of male birds. The last #s I saw for the state population was 300,000. We kill roughly 15% of those birds. Who knows how many of the 300,000 are male but there should be a considerable number left.

One thing I have not seen mentioned on here is carrying capacity. I heard a biologist suggest this years ago but you don't hear much about it. When you have a population expanding quickly it doesn't just stop at carrying capacity but has usually exceeds it for a short time until the population drastically drops because it can't be sustained. It can look similar to ehd in deer, too populated, disease spreads like wildfire. And grouse and hares in the north which go through a 10 year cycle. When prey greatly increases predators increase, prey falls then predators fall. If you think about it, turkeys were increasing at a time when subdivisions are spreading and farms are breaking up. Sure we see lots of turkeys in subdivisions, but you know the nesting cover can't be adequate. And then what does the trash around subdivisions and houses draw? Nesting predators. And even though turkeys can live around subdivisions and houses, as their population is increasing habitat and cover is decreasing, which decreases the carrying capacity. I would think this would have to add to the situation anywhere that there is human population growth. But some of the biggest flocks i know of live close to the middle of town.


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All good points. I'm starting to think this may be the new normal.


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[2in1shot]

Very good read thus far with lots of good points made. In reading, I have not seen a few things mentioned or covered yet.

1. Turkey life expectancy. From my readings, most wild turkeys do not live to be 5 years old. With the average being 3 years. How does this factor play into turkey pop increase and decrease.

2. Metapopulations. Source and sink populations. With habitat loss and land use change, source and sink populations are going to change. Also the way we view "our" population of turkeys. Local vs county vs state population. On a side note, I can remember twra trapping "our" East Tennessee mountain turkeys during the 1980s to take them to middle and west TN to establish new populations. Middle and west TN did not have turkey populations like we see today. You can see the state wide pop growth on the chart above during and after that time. Talk about making some folks mad. Needless to say, there were several rocket nets that disappeared.

 

[SKFOOTER]

I believe you are mistaken. The birds released here in West Tennessee came from Missouri, LBL and established flocks along the Mississippi River in West Tennessee.

 

[arkwaterfowler]

I have seen a big decline in bird numbers this year in Montgomery County. I normally hear and see 10 gobbling birds on the opener and this year I heard three on the opener. Two got shot that day and I killed the third one the following Friday. I hunt around 400 acres in a large river bottom with high bluffs which is preferred habitat. I believe the bird numbers in my area are back to where they were 10-15 years ago. I have heard the same thing around the county.

not complaining just saying something happened in one year...

 

[REN]

I have seen a big decline in bird numbers this year in Montgomery County. I normally hear and see 10 gobbling birds on the opener and this year I heard three on the opener. Two got shot that day and I killed the third one the following Friday. I hunt around 400 acres in a large river bottom with high bluffs which is preferred habitat. I believe the bird numbers in my area are back to where they were 10-15 years ago. I have heard the same thing around the county.

not complaining just saying something happened in one year...

so you heard 3 and killed all 3?? seems thats a pretty easy math to figure out population decline unless Im totally missing something here which I may be.

 

[Boll Weevil]

Beat me to get it REN...and folks wonder where all their turkeys went. :roll:

 

[Setterman]

I have seen a big decline in bird numbers this year in Montgomery County. I normally hear and see 10 gobbling birds on the opener and this year I heard three on the opener. Two got shot that day and I killed the third one the following Friday. I hunt around 400 acres in a large river bottom with high bluffs which is preferred habitat. I believe the bird numbers in my area are back to where they were 10-15 years ago. I have heard the same thing around the county.

not complaining just saying something happened in one year...

So all three gobbling birds got killed. That some serious conservation at work....

 

[megalomaniac]

I have seen a big decline in bird numbers this year in Montgomery County. I normally hear and see 10 gobbling birds on the opener and this year I heard three on the opener. Two got shot that day and I killed the third one the following Friday. I hunt around 400 acres in a large river bottom with high bluffs which is preferred habitat. I believe the bird numbers in my area are back to where they were 10-15 years ago. I have heard the same thing around the county.

not complaining just saying something happened in one year...

So all three gobbling birds got killed. That some serious conservation at work....

Whoa guys, the limit is four. Plenty of time for a hardcore hunter to head to public land and tag out.

Arkwaterfowler, nothing you did is unexpected. LOTS of hunters out there and only and handful of birds to go around. If I didn't own my own land, I'd do the same.

Get it while the getting is good...

Ofc, Dickson county is looking real good right now... I've got a lot of contacts there and may be pulling some strings there when my farms play out in other counties. Watch out cougars, here I come!

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[arkwaterfowler]

Sillyman I'm surprised an old pro like you has anything left to prove.

 

[Daniel90]

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[ZachMarkus]

What about the guys who go out and kill 15 a season? Know one guy who has already killed 7 or 8 this year. Reaped everyone one of them as well. And I guarantee he will kill at least 10 to 15 more. I believe this is what is hurting the population where I'm at. However I refuse to turn him in bc it's not really my business just frustrating when I get 3 pics of 3 different gobblers dead in one day

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This is a huge problem imo, I know several guys that do the exact same thing.


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[scn]

What about the guys who go out and kill 15 a season? Know one guy who has already killed 7 or 8 this year. Reaped everyone one of them as well. And I guarantee he will kill at least 10 to 15 more. I believe this is what is hurting the population where I'm at. However I refuse to turn him in bc it's not really my business just frustrating when I get 3 pics of 3 different gobblers dead in one day

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Total bullshyt that it isn't your business. You can choose to be part of the problem or part of a solution. You keeping quiet shows you side with the poaching game hogs.

 

[Goodtimekiller]

What about the guys who go out and kill 15 a season? Know one guy who has already killed 7 or 8 this year. Reaped everyone one of them as well. And I guarantee he will kill at least 10 to 15 more. I believe this is what is hurting the population where I'm at. However I refuse to turn him in bc it's not really my business just frustrating when I get 3 pics of 3 different gobblers dead in one day

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I believe it is your business, you pay for your license, your money goes towards game warden salaries, you pay to help preserve a natural resource that the guy is destroying. If you do not give his name to a game warden you are as guilty as he is.


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[Setterman]

What about the guys who go out and kill 15 a season? Know one guy who has already killed 7 or 8 this year. Reaped everyone one of them as well. And I guarantee he will kill at least 10 to 15 more. I believe this is what is hurting the population where I'm at. However I refuse to turn him in bc it's not really my business just frustrating when I get 3 pics of 3 different gobblers dead in one day

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This is a huge problem imo, I know several guys that do the exact same thing.


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Zach I like you and respect the hell out you, but you and Daniel90 owe to the species and the rest of the state to turn in poachers if you know about it.

Daniel90, it absolutely is your business as it is mine and all the rest of us buying licenses. They're stealing from us. Send me the guys info I'll turn him in and then gladly tell him I'm the one who did it