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2 predictions for 2018 turkey season

Just my opinion here, wild predators and farmers kill more turkeys than hunters every year. Unfortunately farmers have to cut hay when they do. However, if all the turkey hunters would start trapping nest predators, think of the difference that would make. If every turkey hunter saved 1 nest a year. This is going to be an inaccurate number but should be on the low side. So, 34,000 turkeys killed in 2017, say everyone that hunted limited out, that gives us 8,500 hunters. Lets say for every hunter there is another that hunts the same farms and traps the same predators and saves the same nest. 4,250 nests saved. We will say 8 eggs per nest. That means 34,000 poults hatch. We know 1/2 of those will get killed by poult predators so 17,000 extra turkeys reach maturity every year. Then if we could better control poult/adult predators, coyotes, feral cats and bobcats, etc, maybe a few thousand more make it every year. So it seems (and i know these are very rough numbers) that with a little work, we could get close saving an limit of birds every year. But if we don't care we are losing that limit every year. How many of us trap and hunt coyotes and bobcats when we can?

Outlawing decoys? I think most hunters agree decoys save as many turkeys as the kill every year. Maybe as they look more realistic that will change but i've had as many toms shy from decoys as come in.

Hinters that farm should be very careful when cutting hay but just cutting the hay around the nest will usually run the hen off and if you need hay its probably more important to your actual livelihood than turkeys.

How many of us are actually creating brood rearing habitant and nesting habitat for our turkeys? We all want to make the nice clean killing plot, but that does not give the hens and poults a good safe spot to feed. And how many of us are treating our woods to produce nesting cover?

My point is, there are many many things hunters and sportsmen can do to help these turkey populations where they are declining instead of sitting around and blaming the TWRA for inactivity. Sure, maybe the regs could be changed to make a difference, but can they make as big of a difference as the goal minded proactive hunter?
 
megalomaniac":2on6pqf0 said:
#1 this will be the lowest kill since turkey restoration completed
Click to expand...
Update on comparing this year's numbers this far into the season, versus last year's numbers at same point (same # of hunting days).

2017: 21,989 turkeys checked in (63% of all turkeys checked in last year)

2018: 14,995 turkeys checked in

I realize there are a million other "factors" that could have an impact or could be to blame, but there are the raw numbers through today. For chits and giggles, if you apply the 63% ratio to this year's kills up to this point, we would wrap up the 2018 spring season with 23,613 birds checked in. :shock:

Let the BS, lies and excuses begin......... :)
 
Weather was rotten last weekend and looking like crap again tomorrow. In theory, if we are killing too many too early, the woods should be rocking in 2 years


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MickThompson":zeqlfj6o said:
Weather was rotten last weekend and looking like crap again tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Agree 100%, we cannot catch a break on the weekend, especially Saturdays.

MickThompson":zeqlfj6o said:
In theory, if we are killing too many too early, the woods should be rocking in 2 years
Click to expand...
I hope you are correct.
 
Weather has to be a major factor for this year as every weekend when most people can hunt has been terrible. With that being said I have heard several and can tell no difference in the places I hunt. Saturday was one of the best gobbling days I have had and it was freezing. Turkeys will be "Turkeys" but most people will stay at the house in cold and rain. I am just asking how could you judge on two weeks of season when 5 years of data shows us steady at 32,000 a year? As a matter of fact last year was 34,000? So I guess my question is if 5 years of data shows no decline and some are convinced turkeys are dwindling in numbers. Why would we even discuss two weeks of numbers if 5 years worth do not seem to matter? I think some must be having a localized population problem but I also see several of you with pictures of turkeys and some even pictures of doubles , triples etc. Good luck and keep after them!
 
What I'm noticing. There are gobblers. I can't see them because they are in cover and they pretty much stay the same place all day. I have a 900 acre lease and pretty much covered it all Thursday and I made 8 diffferent single gobblers gobble at me 1 time each by cutting insanely. So I know there are 8. The old saying is there are twice as many as you hear so that means sixteen. What I find intriguing is in the whole day I never saw or jumped a hen. I think for some reason hen numbers are way down. The few hens we have are bred. Very tough hunting for sure. Gobblers aren't responding or answering calls. Very hard to kill.
 
I've been having the toughest season since I started, and it's not for lack of birds. It's not the weather either, we've had enough good days here when the birds should have been normal. I'm hearing as many on roost as I usually do. But I'm seeing them less often in the fields, and they are free gobbling a lot less often. When I do strike one, a lot of them don't want to work and will shut up and go away. It's not near as easy to strike a mid day bird as it was a few years ago. Yet I'm still hearing them on roost, and still seeing large winter flocks. There have always been "henned up" birds but there have also always been satellite birds, even in the beginning of season. They just aren't as vocal, and are staying in the thicker woods a lot more than usual. I'm not sure why, or how many people have been having this problem this year. I'm mostly hunting public land, some of the same land I would tag out on 4 or 5 years ago, I can barely call one in for a clear shot now.


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Andy S.":wlyl4i0c said:
megalomaniac":wlyl4i0c said:
#1 this will be the lowest kill since turkey restoration completed
Click to expand...
Update on comparing this year's numbers this far into the season, versus last year's numbers at same point (same # of hunting days).

2017: 21,989 turkeys checked in (63% of all turkeys checked in last year)

2018: 14,995 turkeys checked in

I realize there are a million other "factors" that could have an impact or could be to blame, but there are the raw numbers through today. For chits and giggles, if you apply the 63% ratio to this year's kills up to this point, we would wrap up the 2018 spring season with 23,613 birds checked in. :shock:

Let the BS, lies and excuses begin......... :)
Click to expand...

Holy yugo! Didn't realize it was that bad. Weather is rough but with field hunters being the Norm it shouldn't affect that much. I'm hearing plenty of birds but killing them or working them is laughably hard. They won't talk, period and it stinks. The two that have and haven't had some googan mess up are both dead.
 
Setterman":ima2117i said:
Holy ******! Didn't realize it was that bad. Weather is rough but with field hunters being the Norm it shouldn't affect that much. I'm hearing plenty of birds but killing them or working them is laughably hard. They won't talk, period and it stinks. The two that have and haven't had some googan mess up are both dead.
Click to expand...
field hunters aren't gonna do any good if birds aren't in the fields. I've seen a lot less field activity so far this year. Certain days are good, I've seen plenty of turkey, but more days than not it seems they're not in sight. I think part of it had to do with the leftover red oak acorns. At least that's how it is in my area. There could be some other reason they are staying in the woods, that only the turkey gods know. Lol


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looks like I'm not eating crow on #1...

sure, lots of you will find excuses for the low harvest (easter sunday the 2nd day of the season, the weather is bad, blah, blah, blah). Gotta remember, I LIVE turkeys, I LOVE turkeys. I'm not your typical turkey hunter. I know these birds. I spend more time with them than any of our state turkey biologists. I've been saying our population was going to plummet for a decade (and they have been slowly declining for a decade, we've just hit the precipice this year).

And SCN, I have a LOT of respect for you... but why in the heck are we paying a turkey biologist $$$ for the past 2 decades if they are not the ones that are realizing there has been and is a problem... Heck, I've been telling the state what to do for FREE for YEARS. I'm NOT going to the commission meetings. If our biologists aren't smart enough to realize the problem and implement the changes needed to reverse it (c'mon, quit 'studying' the problem... it'll be too late when you get the answer), I'm available anytime our state biologists want to discuss how to rebound our population. Quit reading the darn textbooks, live with the turkeys in the woods.
 
megalomaniac":3r31sivr said:
looks like I'm not eating crow on #1...

sure, lots of you will find excuses for the low harvest (easter sunday the 2nd day of the season, the weather is bad, blah, blah, blah).
Click to expand...
No excuses here... I have been having the toughest season of my hunting career, but I have still seen and heard the same number of birds as I have in the past, from winter flocks to pre season scouting and roost gobbling. They are there, but most days they won't work to a call like usual, and mid day gobbling is almost nonexistent. Weather was bad a few days, but it was also good a few days. I'm hoping it improves in the next couple weeks. If turkey population is declining statewide, I want something done about it, but I can't say there's a decline where I hunt just because they are tougher to hunt than usual.
 
Alright I will just ask you directly Mega since you started the post and seem to know about turkeys. No one has yet to answer my question about the last 5 years of data with the kill numbers? How do you kill 32,000 a year and 34,000 last year and get that our population is in turmoil? I am just asking and wanting a reasonable explanation. I am like Catman, I have seen or heard as many if not more than ever. I have killed one but have been taking my 9 year old trying to get him a bird, which I would rather do anyway. I would dare say I could possibly have two more at this point. Say what you want about the weather but most of your" turkey hunters " are not die hards like some of us and simply do not go when it is bad even juvenile weather was terrible. I also have another theory on this years numbers , surely some of these guys that are advocating a 2 bird limit have those two and have quit hunting at this point thus the numbers will not go up as much! This could be why the numbers are down they are "practicing what they preach" and put the guns away. I bet you want find pictures of them doubling on their " breeder" gobblers or killing a limit due to their concern for the turkey population! Thanks again for an explanation on the last 5 years, not at all trying to be smart but no one has answered that logically to me. Is it just a localized problem?
 
I just want a huntable population in southern Lawrence county again. Y'all haven't seen a decline yet....
 
I think it could help to move season back.

I think it would have helped if TWRA didn't give a bunch of our birds to Texas, I read that in the NWTF magazine two or so years ago.

I think it will help if they abolished hen shooting.

I think it will help if they go back to the old tagging method.

I think it will help if they ban decoys.

The weather on saturdays this year has been super poor, except opening day. Have had some pretty good weekdays though, which I was lucky enough to be able to hunt in.


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deerfever":2lauick0 said:
How do you kill 32,000 a year and 34,000 last year and get that our population is in turmoil?
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From those numbers alone, we do not get "turmoil".

But based on much long-term hunter observation, we do see an overall "decline" in statewide turkey populations.
My thought is as the population has been declining, hunters have been each year killing a higher percentage of living birds.
We may also be killing today a relatively higher percentage of the living 3-yr-old and older Toms compared to times past.
EVERYTHING above and below is reducing breeding success, nesting success, and young poult survival.

IMO, the only plausible explanation for a sustained annual harvest is we're killing progressively a higher percentage of what we have. At some point, this harvest is not only NOT sustainable, but may rapidly collapse, statewide, not just in certain counties and parts of counties.

For example, let's just say many years ago hunters each year might have killed 60% of the living males during the spring season.
Perhaps a few years ago it was up to 70%.
Perhaps now it's north of 80%.

Think about why this is a plausible theory:

We have gone from a 2-bird spring season, to a 3-bird spring season, to now a 4-bird spring season.
We have gone from lead turkey loads (maximum high-probability kill range was around 40-45 yards)
to now HTL/TSS turkey loads (maximum high-probability kill range extended to 45-55 yards).

Add to this a collapsing of time frames in learning how to "kill" turkeys via the internet, videos, TV.
And some of the methods for outright "killing" turkeys today were much less employed only a few years ago.

Here's what I and many long-term turkey hunters have observed:

Generally fewer turkeys over time (in long established turkey areas) which gobble less and come out into fields less.

Few have picked up on all the "whys" this has happened (nor do I claim to have all the answers).
But part of why appears to be increased predation by both human and non-human hunters as well.
A few years ago, I had never, then rarely seen a bald eagle in many my turkey-hunting areas.
Today, I see and find regularly evidence of eagles hunting turkeys,
and do believe this plays a role into why turkeys have become less inclined to come out into more open areas.

Wherever turkeys have become well established, over time, all predators become more efficient at killing them,
and that includes us human hunters. I used to never to seldom see coyotes and bobcats during mid-day.
Today I see coyotes and bobcats during mid-day specifically hunting for turkeys.

Finally, there is a change in hunter attitudes that has gone from highly valuing "playing the game" of traditional calling/hunting,
to many being more interested in simply how quickly they can kill the limit and post their accomplishment on facebook.

If we have fewer turkeys statewide, how can we not be killing a higher percentage of the male birds each year?
At this point, how can this not be "trending" the wrong direction?

To those who have "plenty" of birds, are you in an area that had little to no turkeys and turkey hunting say 2 or 3 decades ago? Some of these "newer" counties and parts of counties may still be experiencing expansion and population increases. But time is not on your side either. It's just that "statewide" these newer areas of turkey expansion may be camouflaging the population decline in the longer established flocks.

Today, imo, the statewide turkey harvest is no longer much an indicator of our turkey populations.
 
Something else to think about:

Consider all the above, mainly it is now easier than ever for a human hunter to kill a turkey,
but add to this we now have more turkey hunters.

If our turkey population was NOT declining statewide,
shouldn't our annual turkey kill be rapidly rising?
 
woodsman04":1fn4ttbk said:
I think it could help to move season back.
Click to expand...
IMO, opening the season a week later, coupled with reducing the limit from 4 to 2
would be the easiest effective way of addressing the decline.

The breeder Toms would have significantly more time to get the job done.
By the way, this is the main reason KY's season opens 2 weeks later than TN's.
Latitude makes a difference on breeding dates, so it may be a fairer comparison
to say KY's season opens about a week later than TN's relatively to the breeding.

Just saying, this could be an easy "fix" to begin addressing our concerns.
Making no changes until the problem is more obvious is a very poor plan.

Just don't want to see our statewide turkey populations
follow the decline of our statewide bobwhite quail populations.

Hard to believe now, but back in the 1970's
more TN hunters hunted quail than hunt turkey today.
 

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