Crossing the Campbell County Line . . . . .

[TheLBLman]

STILL NOT SURE?!? :tu:

I wish I had more time to get in to it now, but that "penny" scenario is a classic example of why cumulative compounding is SO SIGNIFICANT.

It so obvious that $10,000 a day for 30 days adds up to $300,000.
It is not so obvious, almost not even worth considering, until you actually do,
then find out that a penny a day doubled daily becomes millions of dollars in only 30 days.

Albert Einstein —
'Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it.'

Instead of daily, just imagine yearly, for like 30 years. A seemingly very small issue can grow exponentially into a big one over time. I believe the antler high-grading factor has become much more significant than it initially appears to many deer managers. Similar can be said for the cumulative effects of each year just having slightly more (or less) older bucks.

The direction of the TREND becomes very significant, especially over time in years, much like doubling a penny daily.
TIME answers part of the riddle for why Whitley County has produced so many larger antlered bucks than Campbell.

 

[darn2ten]

I guess I just don't understand this mindset that just because you draw a imaginary line on the ground to seperate states that the soil is so much different on the other side of said line. I believe it been shown on here repeatedly that with these two counties it is certainly not the case. I believe Roost1 is spot on about pressure. I don't care if the same amount of bucks are killed or not, those deer have to indur that pressure for a far shorter period. I also believe the IMO, the ridiculous antlerless buck rule plays heavily on this as well. Just don't believe near as many bucks make it to a older age class south of the line. Genetics? It been proven in recent years that the doe has as much if not more impact of her buck offspring than the fathering buck does. Pretty simple, shorter season / less pressure, no crazy under 3" rule, and a 1 buck limit.

 

[AXL78]

LBLMan, In the above case, it would have an impact on genetics. However, that is not getting all the x,y, and z's, and the math is misleading. The deer are not compounding and doubling every year, that doesn't occur. Without getting into some lengthy discussion and nick nicking the math in a theory, I do see where you are going to an extent.

 

[TheLBLman]

LBLMan, In the above case, it would have an impact on genetics.

In the context of buck antlers, I really don't think we end up with much difference in the genetics of the Whitley Co deer vs. the Campbell Co deer.

Most bucks may breed only one to three doe annually. More of that breeding is done by younger bucks than older bucks, mainly because there are just so many more of those younger bucks. (Not saying older bucks aren't better at it, just saying they're outnumbered.) I would speculate that the majority of the breeding in both Whitley & Campbell counties is done by 1 1/2 & 2 1/2-yr-old bucks.

These younger bucks have not been subjected to as much of the hunters' antler high-grading as the older ones, so it may be a good thing the younger ones are doing more of the breeding. Then on the other hand, assuming most of the antler genetics are passed from female deer to their male off-spring, it really doesn't matter which bucks do the breeding?

 

[AXL78]

Darn2ten, have you ever looked into glacial migration, and where they ended up on a map. They stopped coming south at just about exactly the Kentucky/Tennessee state line, melted, and left significant nutrient deposits in the soils (or so I've read). I honestly don't know, and am not h3ll bent on it one way or the other. I have just been debating with a few for entertainment purposes really. Not to try and prove anybody wrong. Just posting theories. I most likely am wrong and not worried if I am.

 

[AXL78]

LBLMan, In the above case, it would have an impact on genetics.

In the context of buck antlers, I really don't think we end up with much difference in the genetics of the Whitley Co deer vs. the Campbell Co deer.

Most bucks only breed one to three doe annually. More of that breeding is done by younger bucks than older bucks, mainly because there are just so many more of those younger bucks. (Not saying older bucks aren't better at it, just saying they're outnumbered.) I would speculate that the majority of the breeding in both Whitley & Campbell counties is done by 1 1/2 & 2 1/2-yr-old bucks.

These younger bucks have not been subjected to as much of the hunters' antler high-grading as the older ones, so it may be a good thing the younger ones are doing more of the breeding. Then on the other hand, assuming most of the antler genetics are passed from female deer to their male off-spring, it really doesn't matter which bucks do the breeding?

I have read antler characteristics are passed down from a doe, but in a way similar to male pattern baldness. So the grandsons may inherit those characteristics. However, if they are breeding at 1.5, it likely wouldn't matter.

 

[TheLBLman]

. . . . glacial migration, and where they ended up on a map.

I never stated this wasn't a factor.
However, either it's reflected in the soil maps, or it's a separate factor?

By my analysis, from the very beginning, in the case of Whitley vs. Campbell, differences in soil and genetics were ruled out as factors contributing to the disparity.

I suspect there may be some meaningful "factors" we've yet to identify, and there have been some interesting ideas on several (such as baiting differences, stress differences, etc.). But believe the two single largest are hunters' antler high-grading being significantly higher in Campbell County, while buck age structure is at least slightly better in Whitley County. Over a period of many years, the cumulative effects of these can add up much more than they might initially appear, especially that antler high-grading issue.

So, here's the questions I poise:

Do Campbell County hunters desire to kill any more larger antler bucks than they've been killing?

If they do, WITHOUT any changes being made to the deer hunting regs (keeping the buck limit at 2; keeping the season segment we have), what COULD Campbell County hunters simply decide they'd like to do to reduce their county's antler high-grading and improve their county's buck age structure?

I believe a good start could be for each hunter to focus more on killing their deer more in a balance of sexes rather than mostly bucks, and maybe considering if there's not enough deer to be killing that many females, then maybe there's not enough deer to have been killing that many males?

I am suggesting that a TN county such as Campbell could kinda have it's cake and eat it, too. Of course Campbell would likely never match the number of larger antlered bucks coming out of Whitley (so long as KY has a relatively short gun season and a 1-buck limit). But I believe Campbell could get impressively close, even with our 2-buck limit, even with our long gun season. It would just take a significant change in collective hunter "mindset".

 

[darn2ten]

Darn2ten, have you ever looked into glacial migration, and where they ended up on a map. They stopped coming south at just about exactly the Kentucky/Tennessee state line, melted, and left significant nutrient deposits in the soils (or so I've read). I honestly don't know, and am not h3ll bent on it one way or the other. I have just been debating with a few for entertainment purposes really. Not to try and prove anybody wrong. Just posting theories. I most likely am wrong and not worried if I am.

Well after looking the the furthest south a glacier ever got was just over the line in northern Kentucky in the Illinion ice age. In the most recent ice age glaciers never made it further south than Ohio. By the way, the soils in both of these counties has been studied and tested so I don't think the soil differences between Whitley and Campbell Co. holds any water.

 

[AXL78]

I guess your theory is high-grading then. You would have to know the breakout of the age classes in the harvest for each state to go any further, scores per age class, and do they see that many more bucks than their TN counterparts to be that selective, or do TN hunters only see the top end younger deer. In order to high-grade at that level you have to see a truckload of bucks, and have a ton of opportunities. Most are just killing the first one they see on both sides most likely.

I just saw you added to your post, but I'll leave what I said out there.

 

[Os2 Outdoors]

Sure seems like a quandary doesn't it? Two neighboring counties with such a large difference in the number of large bucks, th8se two counties having virtually everthing the same as far as food cover water. that same Kentucky county killing more BC bucks than the whole of West Tennessee.? How can this be possible? To some it boils down to nutrients in the soil above any and everything else? I'm no soil scientist , but how CAN it possibly be soil? More in one county in Kentucky than the "best" Tennessee can offer? This is my OPINION, but I think there is no way it's soils. I don't know how long KY has had 1 buck limit and short season, but how can this NOT be the main reason? Tennessee has had high limits and long seasons for a long long time. Long range and accurate weapons from first week of November til into January...how does this not factor in? Yes, those two counties killed same number of bucks, but in Tennessee it's very hard for a deer to make it to 4.5. As someone pointed out earlier, we're talking about 16 deer out of maybe 20000. The 16 to 1 is a huge difference, but 16 out of 20000 is even bigger. The mindset is more of a factor than I used to think. By that I mean that deer hunters are hunters and hunters like pulling the trigger. It's a whole lot easier to shoot the first deer with antlers knowing you can just shoot one or two more later. That mindset can change without a limit change IF the hunting population wants to only kill big antlers as the main reason for deer hunting in the first place. While I believe firmly that most every hunter wants to kill big bucks, so many of us are just deer hunters and killing big antlers just isn't as important as it is to some. I think most deer hunters fall into this category. Most would LIKE to be a trophy hunter, but just aren't. Now, change the limit and season then you are taking opportunity away from a lot of good people. I personally wouldn't want to change the limits or seasons, but I'm one of those who strictly hunts for meat. It's my choice and my family's choice of meat to eat. I don't want to take my neighbors big racked deer or next year's big racked deer, but since I just am not able to get a lot of time in the stand most anything that comes by I will shoot, buck or doe. I feel like I've moved off topic, so I apologize for that. Back to soils. I asked this question on another thread...If soils played that big of a role in antler development, then how is it that in any given deer herd the wide variety of antler sizes of same aged deer? Same age, same food, same soil etc, and very different antlers. If soil was that much of a factor then that variance wouldn't be so great. One thing that is the same across all deer herds is that older deer have bigger antlers than younger deer...if you want more deer with bigger antlers then you just simply need more older deer.

Poorhunter, I think the question here is this: Why do the older deer in Whitney, KY have larger antlers than the older deer in Campbell, TN?

Fella its the science of averages. With more older class bucks reaching maturity in the KY county VS the TN county. Than there will be more with superior genetics reach genetics.

You think your local community college or the University of Tennessee will produce more NFL players?

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[darn2ten]

How do you know they're killing on their first trip? I guarantee you, when you have a 1 buck limit you're going to be more selective with how you use that 1 chance. Mindset/limit is how I explain it.

 

[Roost 1]

Os2, it depends on if that community college is in Alabama.... oke: :tu:

 

[AXL78]

Os2, How would that explain the average score per age class being higher.

If there are more older bucks, meaning more with great genetics, there will also be more older bucks with bad genetics to be averaged.

 

[AXL78]

How do you know they're killing on their first trip? I guarantee you, when you have a 1 buck limit you're going to be more selective with how you use that 1 chance. Mindset/limit is how I explain it.

I don't know that. I'm just going on the theory most aren't die hard hunters and don't get that many opportunities so they will capitalize on the first one. I'm not saying that is true at all.

 

[Os2 Outdoors]

Os2, How would that explain the average score per age class being higher.

If there are more older bucks, meaning more with great genetics, there will also be more older bucks with bad genetics to be averaged.

Where are you getting the average score per age class?

Where you getting ages as well? I know it's the best we got on a mass level but I hope you're not talking about tooth wear that's %40 accurate.

 

[AXL78]

LBLMan and I discussed that earlier. We are under the assumption that the deer across the line from Campbell, TN have a higher score per age class. Meaning, if x amount of deer reached top end scoring age in each county, the ones that reached that age in KY would score higher than the ones in TN. We don't have actual numbers. You can assume that though under the 1:15 ratio, because TN "probably" does provide a large enough sample size over the years for bucks in that age class to have more than 1 entry.

 

[AXL78]

Not talking about anything exact really.

 

[TheLBLman]

We are under the assumption that the deer across the line from Campbell, TN have a higher score per age class.

I believe that's true only for the oldest age classes, i.e. less antler high-grading of the younger bucks in Whitley allows for more of their larger antlered young bucks to become older.

My presumption is that the 1 1/2-yr-old class of bucks in both counties have similar genetics and similar antlers at "that" age class. May be very similar at 2 1/2 as well, but then changes rapidly as the TN hunters then kill off a much higher percentage of their largest antlered 2 1/2's, than do their peers in KY.

Will add again, I believe more of the young KY bucks are surviving to full maturity, that's on top of more of those surviving KY bucks being larger antlered when they were youngsters. By contrast, it might even be almost a relative moot point how many of the TN bucks are living to full maturity, assuming they are much more heavily high-graded as youngsters.

 

[AXL78]

We are under the assumption that the deer across the line from Campbell, TN have a higher score per age class.

I believe that's true only for the oldest age classes, i.e. less antler high-grading of the younger bucks in Whitley allows for more of their larger antlered young bucks to become older.

My presumption is that the 1 1/2-yr-old class of bucks in both counties have similar genetics and similar antlers at "that" age class. May be very similar at 2 1/2 as well, but then changes rapidly as the TN hunters then kill off a much higher percentage of their largest antlered 2 1/2's, than do their peers in KY.

Will add again, I believe more of the young KY bucks are surviving to full maturity, that's on top of more of those surviving KY bucks being larger antlered when they were youngsters. By contrast, it might even be almost a relative moot point how many of the TN bucks are living to full maturity, assuming they are much more heavily high-graded as youngsters.

This is providing levels of opportunity, in the wild, that are almost incomprehensible to me. The odds of hunters spotting that many top end young bucks and taking them, while allowing that many lower end survive, is beyond my level of comprehension. KY would have to have the same level of opportunity. And again, you are talking about people going 2-3 times a year for the most part, as you've mentioned in other threads. The limit does not have that kind of effect on most. Does the guy in Kentucky just happen to not see the top end 2.5-3.5. I mean, what is their harvest rate on 4.5 y/o deer. They have to be killing a lot of 2.5-3.5's in their numbers also, and the amount of high grading is not that different. It could be a little different, but I would imagine the majority of their "hunter trophy's" (not book), as with anywhere, are top-end 2.5-3.5's.

 

[Os2 Outdoors]

We are under the assumption that the deer across the line from Campbell, TN have a higher score per age class.

I believe that's true only for the oldest age classes, i.e. less antler high-grading of the younger bucks in Whitley allows for more of their larger antlered young bucks to become older.

My presumption is that the 1 1/2-yr-old class of bucks in both counties have similar genetics and similar antlers at "that" age class. May be very similar at 2 1/2 as well, but then changes rapidly as the TN hunters then kill off a much higher percentage of their largest antlered 2 1/2's, than do their peers in KY.

Will add again, I believe more of the young KY bucks are surviving to full maturity, that's on top of more of those surviving KY bucks being larger antlered when they were youngsters. By contrast, it might even be almost a relative moot point how many of the TN bucks are living to full maturity, assuming they are much more heavily high-graded as youngsters.

I can agree with this somewhat. But for theory sake, if there's 500 bucks in each county and a random sampling of 100 make it to 5.5 I say zero difference in average scores.

With the same analogy above though, the number of bucks that reach 5.5 in TN would be like 50 VS 100 in KY of those 100 bucks, the law averages takes over. Therefore more bucks would reach that B&C status with superior genetics (NFL STARS)